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Fascinating article, Nathan. Thank you for a well-balanced approach!

My take - I think there is a great deal of uncertainty about the future. For one thing, there is the question about whether Amazon, et al, will continue to allow authors to set their own prices. That may change. I hope it doesn't, but it may.

If things continue the way they are, I think your second option - tier pricing - will occur. People will pay more for an author they want to read - the value goes up if the desirabilty of the product goes up. If J.K. Rowling wrote another book, I'd take out a second job to pay for it.

There are two points in your argument that I want to discuss further. The first is the idea that the demand for books is finite. Although that's undoubtedly true, it's also true that books are disposable items. Once someone reads one book, they are ready for the next. Also, the ease of access afforded by e-readers allows books to be instantly attainable. This is a very different world than before, where books were hard to get and the demand for books may be much greater than people imagine.

The second point is this persistent myth that a 99 cent price point will sell books.

Sorry, but people will not spend money for something they don't want. They won't even take something for free if they don't want it.

For example, if you go out to the parking lot and pick up a stick that is covered in mud, I'm not taking it, even if it's free.

99 cents may sell a few books, because some people are willing to pay 99 cents to see if the book is any good. But it's not going to sell alot of books. Just a few.

There is one thing, and one thing only that will sell oddles of books. People seem to think there is a short cut, but I'm sorry, there isn't. The only way to sell oodles of books is to write a book that oodles of people want to read.

And then they'll probably pay more than 99 cents for it.

I'm still not convinced the 2.99 / .99 "revolution" isn't history repeating itself.

The first step to monopoly is destroying a competitive market, and historically, the way that's been done is by undercutting prices to such an extent that no one can compete. (Railway and oil "barons" were made this way).

However, once the competition actually buckles, then the "cheap" price usually disappears because the last one standing is still going to be able to set their own price.

That doesn't necessarily mean that the price of an ebook would rise above .99, but there's no reason Amazon has to continue to pay out the same percentage in royalties they are at present.

The public - who couldn't care less, so long as they get what they want - would be relatively happy, but the writers are up the creek.

Great discussion, and I'll add something I learned on my first day of class in Contracts in law school: a fair price is what a willing buyer will pay a willing seller. Simple as that. Regardless of the moral or philosophic or literary arguments, that will win the day.

You make great points at the end: free or .99 cents will be the proving ground, and then there will be much more leeway with price once an author is established. As a reader and an indie author, I have no problem with that. I love scouring for great new voices (and it takes me about a paragraph to figure out if the new voice is great) both in the bookstore and online, but I'm simply more willing to try a new author at.99 or 2.99 unless I think it is out of this world amazing. And as an indie author in an extremely difficult and competitive market (as always), I have confidence in my work, and want as many people as possible to find me. I don't like the .99 price point, but that is what the market dictates, then the other questions are a bit irrelevant. I think publishers, to survive, should think the same: if this ebook thing is happening (regardless of what anyone thinks about it), then they need to figure out how to stay relevant and profitable. Maybe charging 100 for the next book by the Rowling's and the Grisham's isn't a bad idea.

To the extent books become more like bananas - look the same, read the same - price can be a deciding factor. Do I want this 9.99 zombie apocalypse book or this .99 zombie apocalypse book?

But when the choice is this new 14.99 JK Rowling book or this new .99 LK Rigel book, until most people know who Rigel is, they're going to pick the Rowling.

My challenge isn't to find readers looking for a cheap read. My challenge is to get the attention of readers looking for a good read .

99 cents is a strategy. I use it, but it won't work long-term unless your book makes it into algorithm heaven or you have several books and the 99-center is an introduction to all the rest.

A note to Mira-- only self-published authors set their own prices for ebooks. For traditionally published books, the publisher sets it. I know authors who wish the publisher would make the ebook cheaper.

If you're not familiar with it Nathan, you might want to check out eReader IQ, a site that exists partly to allow readers to track Kindle books & find out when the price drops. I think ebook readers are definitely price-sensitive, but I think it's worth noting that bestsellers continue to be best sellers in ebook form, even when the price is $12.99 to $14.99. What has happened is that books that would not otherwise be best sellers get on the list by being priced at 99 cents. Probably they bump some higher priced books to get there, but they don't take over the list entirely. I consider it's too early to say the 99 cent phenomenon will have a profound impact; for one thing there are huge numbers of 99 cent books that go nowhere.

I have an e reader. I love it but find myself filling it with free or cheap books.
With a traditional book you can read it, pass it to friends, sell it at a used book store, sell it at a garage sale, or donate it.
With an ebook the reader can't do all these things.
I think publishers need to do more with price discovery. If people are flocking to 99 cent ebooks it is because paying more for an ebook than a traditional book doesn't make sense to the consumer.

I agree with JL Bryan. This is a good deal like shopping for anything else. If you aren't sure about the quality of a product, you tend to buy the cheaper version -- to see if you like it. If you want quality, you buy a more trusted brand name, which will be more expensive. This is not to say, of course, that you may not be pleasantly surprised with the quality of the inexpensive product. But a newbie cannot sell as much for as high a price as an established brand, whether that is clothing, electronics, or a book.
My guess is that Amanda Hocking's book prices will go way up soon. And that's okay. She started small with the unknowns, and now she's off to the big time.
Hmmm.... maybe I'd better go try one of her books, eh?

Oh, and I'd most certainly pay $100 for Rowling' next book. Anytime.

To me this post reads as a list of well thought out reasons that $.99 e-books may not be good for writers in the long run (because it'll become increasingly hard for most writers to get paid a worthwhile amount), and then a supposition that maybe some magical market force which hasn't yet made itself felt yet will rescue some big-name authors from the wreckage.

Yikes.

Honestly, just because a book is 99 cents does not make me more interested in buying it. I still read samples. I enjoyed Amanda's opening pages of the trylle trilogy which is why I purchased the first book. I would've paid more.

2 things:

1) @erin said "sorting, critiquing and reviewing that goes on with traditional publishing, the quality of the literature will decline"

The "sorting, critiquing and reviewing" that traditional publishers do does not guarantee "quality" literature, what it guarantees is marketable literature. Publishers don't care if it's good, only that it sells. It's also a mistake to assume that the same (or higher) level of sorting, critiquing and reviewing isn't going on amongst the self-published. I guarantee that just as you will find self published books of a "lower quality" than many traditionally published books, you will also find "higher quality" self published books than many traditionally published books.

2) If everybody is clamoring for cheap and free books to read how did libraries ever fall out of favor? Isn't the "Netflix" model just a library card?

@ Michael C

Her books can't go up in price if she wants to continue to make the royalty amount she's currently pulling in. (This is for the self-pubbed ebooks, not her upcoming commercial book)

The reason self-pubs have chosen the amounts they did isn't arbitrary.

Amazon set their royalty percentages with one ceiling at $.99 and another at $2.99. There's no incentive to raise, which is why I believe this is more manipulation on Amazon's part than progression of the market from buyers.

I've been lamenting this point for a while now, this dollar book phenom. Time will tell of course how it plays out, but the driving down of ebook prices, while good for readers, I think will end up hurting writers in the long run. If the name authors prices get down low enough, 99 cents will not longer feel like such the bargain, and the desire to risk on an unknown will go down. Name author you like for 2.99 or unknown for .99? As the difference goes away, so does the incentive.

Regardless, I still believe, and likely always will, that books are worth more than a buck. I honestly don't care about the economics in this case. It's just pig-headedness perhaps, but stories deserve a spot somewhere above the mass-produced junk from the local dollar store.

Josin - I agree with you about Amazon. Right now, they are definitely courting the author, which is a very good thing because it is changing the culture. But, whether that will change once the competition thins is a very good question.

On the other hand, if that happens, authors may feel more empowered at that point and may form collectives to strengthen their position. Or start handing out books on their website, and refuse to go through Amazon, etc.

Should be interesting to watch.

Carmen - good points.

Very interesting conversation. But I'm wondering: are people buying the .99 cent books because it's something they want to read, or because they're only .99 cents? As with Groupon, I signed up for it at first, but then realized none of the discounts were for services I wanted, so I didn't use any of them - kind of like grocery store coupons, why would I want to save $1 on Twinkies if I don't eat Twinkies?

I think some consumers jump on something because they think it's a deal, it's what's in front of them, so they grab it without even considering if it's something they WANT. Kind of like walking down the strip in Vegas and you grab the flyer the guys are shoving in your face, just because they're there... but do you really want what they are offering? I'm sure some do, but I have no need for HOT YOUNG GIRLS DIRECT TO MY ROOM NOW!!! I just wanna go see Carrot Top.

And... am I the only one out there who still hasn't gotten into ebooks?

I do so much reading on the computer that when I want to read a book I, well, want to read a BOOK.

I tend to agree with you, Nathan. As a self-published author, it irks me that I have to price at 99 cents, even for a short, to compete. For guys like Konrath, it's a way to turn up the profit spicket for the short term. If readers get use to paying 99 cents for novels, I think it will be more difficult to go back up to $2.99 or, heaven forbid, $3.99. or $4.99. Personally, I don't think $5 is too much to ask if you've produced a welld-one novel-length story. Arghhhh!

I like your idea of applying price discovery to the e-publishing industry.

I wrote my own rant a few weeks ago ("99-Cent Train Wreck" at http://wp.me/p1qrBV-2c), but I was thinking of commoditization as a downward pricing trend only. It didn't occur to me that it also implies pricing can increase based on demand. I guess I've been too accustomed to the retail model.

Thanks for an interesting new perspective.

Thought-provoking post.

I have experimented with price points at $2.99, $1.99 and $0.99 and my experience is that there is a degree of price elasticity of demand (e.g., lower price = greater quantity).

I have to agree with JL Bryan's comment that there is a market for everything and all price points. In the world of self-publishing, the author decides how to brand him or herself and the pricing strategy that is appropriate for his or her works.

As an unknown author, my most pressing marketing concern is market penetration - getting my ebook onto as many ereaders as possible. The hope is that I can build a fan base that will be willing to pay more for future works. I've experimented with the $0.99 price point and it has worked. I moved my price up for April and have noticed a decline in sales.

Will I move my price back down to $0.99? I'll wait for April's full month results and then make a decision. One thing is for certain, I will never give away my work.

Other, more well known authors, may be able to charge a higher price, because their fan base is willing to pay more for a known experience. So, no need for Rowling to drop down to $0.99.

Here are some counter intuitive aspects:

- Ebook readership is still in its infancy. The vast majority of readers are still using "old" pbooks. As Kindle and other ereading devices increase their market penetration, then so will the number of readers and the amount of readership attention.

- The net impact of communications technology (Internet and cable TV) has been increased specialization. Which means there is now more choices than ever before and readers buying ebooks are far more likely today to discover authors that they like and are willing to support. Ebooks give more authors more opportunities to create a loyal fan base, which in turn gives more readers the ability to find more of what they like to read.

- Will Entrekin made a good post when he disputed the notion of constrained resources, that there is no depletion of readership attention. He is right, people's appetites for a good read are unlimited and they might be willing to ply through the first five chapters of 10 $0.99 ebooks just to find the next big thing.

In the self-published world, ebook pricing is under the control of the author, who can set price strategy to achieve his/her personal goals.

In the next several years, the number of ebook readers will dramatically increase. That means more bananas to pick for everyone. Also, since the technology provides for an improved ability to reach out to or create a market niche, there should be more room for mangoes, apples and kiwis, too!

The price of a book should be whatever the market will bear. If you won't pay $10 for a book then the market won't bear that price. Regardless of price discovery. The abstinence of purchasing a book has been going on for years. That's why students don't buy books that are required until they know they need them and they usually buy them when they need them and return them before they can't get full price for them anymore. Or they buy them used off of Amazon, even 2nd or 3rd editions instead of 5th editions.

For an unknown author such as myself, the odds are the same, getting an agent and a publisher, as making it through indie pub. The difference is, I don't have to depend on an agent and publisher and the readers, just the readers and myself. I am the master of my own destiny. Plus, the appeal for me is to get some money flowing now instead of holding my breath for something that may or may not happen.

Honesty, with the time and effort I put into writing my books, I wouldn't just give it away for free. I might do the first hundred copies and then sell for a minimum of 99cents and probably wouldn't even do that. I'd start at $2.99 and go from there.

Our community is a wonderful one and we could get at least our followers to read our works for free. We all help each other get the word out on new releases all the time. It's a start for a good readership.

Unfortunately, the creative process is left out of this equation. Will we demand that writers become more and more "efficient" in the way they write (or perhaps more accurately in this scenario, "produce") books? We've lost any sense of putting a value on the writer's time, thought, and courage in writing a novel that is worth reading. Books are not bananas- writers are not trees sprouting fruit.

Here's the thing - while *I* am willing to pay a lot for my books because I love books and I love books by certain authors, most readers probably aren't as passionate about it as I am.

Also, while I'd willingly (and HAPPILY) turn over $50 for Scott Westerfeld's next book Goliath in hardback, I am a lot less enthusiastic about authors I've never heard of or books I've never heard of.

So here's a totally hypothetical idea I just thought of - there's this plugin/widget on many blogs called Linkwithin. at the end of a post it shows 3 or 4 posts that are related somehow. I wouldn't be opposed to having something like that embedded at the end of my e-Books that said, "you liked this paranormal YA about zombies, here are 3 other paranormal YA about zombies" either from the same publisher or others. And maybe if you buy from that related books spot you get a discounted e-book price.

I would like to see more of to see more of the process working to promote books but also cater to the needs of the readers. I'd like to see best sellers do more for the little known debuts. And while I don't think we should be selling at basement prices so that no one makes money, I think it is fair to rethink the pricing of e-books because it is pretty clear that most people do not FEEL like the thing they are buying is worth the cost, even if behind the scenes it is. There has to be a middle ground.

Musicians are already experimenting with the price thing through Bandcamp and that kind of thing--look at what Amanda Palmer is doing, for example, or Radiohead's previous album, wherein they set a minimum amount for a download but the buyer can pay more if they think it's worth more and can afford it. Sort of a reverse kind of barter, really. Strangely, at least in some cases, it seems to work.

I don't really know what to say about all of this. The one thing that is sad to me is that if a book is really great, it's worth a lot more then $0.99 to me.

I wouldn't feel right paying less than say about $10.00 for some of my very favorite novels. Hell, I'd probably pay many times more what they ask for some of my favorites. They're worth it.

I hope the 99 cent thing will lose its appeal soon. Most authors do it to get on the lists, but as more authors do it, staying on the lists will become increasingly difficult, and making money that way will become almost impossible.

People are willing to pay for quality, but the problem is discerning quality from an unknown writer. Readers need new, more reliable ways of discovering writers--a new system of vetting that would eliminate the need for unsustainably cheap e-books.

Traditionally, even before e-books, the only people who ever made real money in publishing were the best selling authors. Most mid-list authors still had day jobs, either teaching or whatever they did to survive.

I also think there's a huge trend happening right now. Most of these so-called authors will publish an e-book, decide it's not really for them, and more on. And we won't really know who is going to survive until the dust finally settles and people move on to the next new trend.

I wish there was a way to tweak the way readers buy e-books.
I'm one of the old guys, but I remember the days when I would go into a bookstore to find my newest friend. (Still do. The proverbial old dog and new tricks thingie.)

Did I look at the cover? Sure, but it wasn't the driving force behind my decision to buy. And it CERTAINLY wasn't the price listed on the back. What made me carry a book to the counter? I read the first page, or maybe even several pages.

I know, I know. The "sample" thing. I do it all the time, even with the freebies and cheapies.

But here's a thought. (My own little tea party) Let's abolish price listings on books, and abolish the "buy" button until after a browser has gone through the first several pages. I think that would go a long way toward weeding out the haves from the have-nots. Maybe even curb this downward spiral in pricing.
Because if the writing isn't there, I walk.

Hey, I can dream, can't I?

By the way, I don't know if I'd pay $100 for Harry Potter, but I would for The Lord of the Rings, especially for one of those leather bound editions with all three volumes.

I can't say this worries me too much. Everyone said the same thing about iPhone apps, but I think they are turning around. At first people expected them to be free or no more than $1, now we're seeing more apps at $5 to $10. All it took was a few quality apps at a higher price to make the consumer think "oh, some of these pricier games are wroth it."

I think we'll see the same thing in the ebook world, especially with self-published books. There's going to be a race to the bottom, but it won't stay there.

As far as debut authors go, I think they would do themselves a favor by setting a minimum price of $1.99. It's all about creating a value anchor. It reminds me of the story of the woman that tried to give away a mattress on Craigslist. She kept the posting up for weeks and no one bit. Her husband took the posting down and put a new one up--"Gently used Queen Mattress $130." It sold that same day. No one wants a free mattress, that implies that it's all gross and old. But $130 seems like a fair price. It implies that the mattress is used, but still high quality. I think authors should use the same tactics. Give away short stories, podcasts, and blog posts, but charge--even if it's just $2--for your books. It implies that they are worth charging for. Of course the trick is to make it so.

It's the publishers who have created this situation, not the independent authors, by the unfair "deal" that they offer their authors for ebooks. Yes, 10% of retail price to authors is fine for print books (not great for authors, but understandable given the real costs of printing, warehousing, distribution).

But offering 25% to authors for ebooks, when publishers have none of those real costs, and claiming this is the industry "standard" is unfair, and it is also what is driving the high ebook prices.

For a $9.99 ebook released through a publisher, the author will earn somewhere around $1.50 to $2.

For a $1.99 independent ebook, the author will earn $1.40 - but will probably sell a heck of a lot more copies at that price. (Yes yes, in both cases the marketing needs to be done properly - but publishers are not actually doing much about that for most of their authors these days).

A large part of the cost of "real" books is due to their physical presence: printing, shipping from printer, warehousing, shipping to sellers, sellers' retail space/warehouses (plus the mark-up that each of these players must add in order to be profitable). Ebooks have none of that. Pricing them at $9.99 is an artificially high price, set by publishers who are desperately trying to set a new industry standard that will rake them some big profits.

Yes, at $0.99 it will be hard for anyone to make a living from ebooks (although it does open the market to shorter works - long stories or essays, novellas). But ebooks priced at $1.99 and $2.99 really opens the door for us, for authors, to actually make a living from what we do.

There is limited readership attention span for books. Given that I can now purchase e-books for the same price at which I purchase used or dollar store books, these e-books are now not only competing with each other and with best-sellers but with, frankly, every book that’s ever been widely distributed. Or even narrowly distributed. They’re competing, pricewise and cachet-wise, with any of this fungible commodity I can find on the market.

When I peruse the shelves at the thrift store, I’m not concerned that a “new” author is, in fact, deceased now, or that his or her book was published thirty, forty, fifty years ago. Most of what I see on the thrift store shelves is new to me and carries with it not only the thrill of discovering a new author but also what previous readers have left in the book, from book marks to margin notes to the fact that long ago they took the trouble to get a signed copy of a book from an author and then, later, gave the book away.

The tragedy of the commons is actually a non-tragedy. Elinor Ostrom won the 2009 Nobel Prize for Economics for showing that commonly owned resources are often very well managed by the local communities that depend on them.

Plus, books aren't exactly a finite resource. The market for books is definitely finite but the creation of books isn't tied to any constrained resource. If anything it's actually the opposite. The act of writing is so pleasurable in itself that the thought of being a successful author is very attractive. So much of your blog is dedicated to trying to prove the opposite :-).

These days it's almost impossible to charge differing prices in the consumer market for the exact same product. Amazon knows all about my past purchases and probably has enough information to be able to charge me more for some stuff than it charges to other people but imagine the bad press it would get if it did that (economists always seem to ignore human psychology for some reason). Even if Amazon could get away with charging me more you'd instantly see companies spring up to take advantage of that price inefficiency by acting as a middleman between people who can buy something cheap and people who actually want that product.

Well, as a writer I don't want to sell my books for free, and as a reader I don't want to pay $100 for a book.

Perhaps I'm simply feeling nostalgic for something that hasn't even passed yet...

"For a $1.99 independent ebook, the author will earn $1.40 - but will probably sell a heck of a lot more copies at that price."

On Amazon, this author would get 70 cents. And just because they're cheap, doesn't mean they'll sell a hell of a lot more copies. There are plenty of .99 books earning about a hundred bucks a year.

The music industry is doing it.
And, there are artists who want to sell their songs for $0.99 but, the Apples of the world won't let them go for a lower rate.

Kid Rock is one of those outspoken, give the masses what they want, and give it to them at a lower cost, and add on a few more songs for free.

Cheers!

Economics is concerned with money and making more of it. Efficiency and economics are based in business principles, and businesses very seldom will cut their own profits to benefit society as a whole, or in part. Individuals are a different matter.

Most people don't care about what resources are available, and aren't interested in sharing those if they can acquire more for themselves.

There are exceptions, but isn't that what the current state of publishing is pushing us to do? That's the message I see in publishers who are changing their tune when they see that perhaps that debut author who self-pubbed isn't as bad as previously thought. (i.e., her writing record doesn't matter). It's what sells and how many that matter in most business transactions. So like the truckers who priced themselves out of making a living, the writers and authors are losing sight of what's important.

All writers should be able to expect recompense for what they do. 'Gettin' while the gettin's good' is a common philosophy today and is considered by many to be a justifiable endeavor.

We must always remember what is lost in the cause for efficiency -- generally it's the personal aspect, or the quality. Marketing drives efficiency (more product sold equals more revenue).

In most instances where efficiency is introduced into the equation, jobs and functions are lost for the sake of unit price. Loss leaders (free or 99 cent books) are a hook. We as debut authors, are the fish that could get eaten. More culling of the herd of writers that exist today?

Meanwhile back at my study . . . I keep on writing. Never say die is my creed.

You get an 'A' on your analysis...you missed the A+ by missing out on the 'price elasticity of demand'. I quote (Wikipedia):
"Price elasticity of demand...is a measure used in economics to show the responsiveness, or elasticity, of the quantity demanded of a good or service to a change in its price.

In general, the demand for a good is said to be...relatively inelastic when changes in price have a relatively small effect on the quantity of the good demanded."

Simply put, the price elasticity of demand for form-based 'excellence' (in this particular example, an 'excellent' book) is relatively inelastic: To wit: People will (and always have) demanded excellence at a reasonable price for a great many reasons (reasons that are generally outside the simplicity of this post).

But that's the answer to your question: "Are we headed to free for e-book prices...?" (No).

s

Self-published e-books are attracting readers who used to troll used bookstores and remainder sales. They may be biting into mass market genre sales a little bit, but readers who buy hardcover fiction seem to be sticking with those sorts of books even when they adopt e-readers. Despite the inefficiencies of commercial publishing, it is still the only way to reach 80% of the audience. And the rock bottom pricing only entices a small and, frankly, undesirable segment of the readership pie.

Precisely because reader attention is a scarce commodity, quality content can command a price premium. Authors who can distinguish themselves on quality don't have to race to the bottom on price. This is the reason most people who can publish commercially will continue to do so.

Not sure if I'm understanding all of this but I think it'll weed itself out like anything else. These well known writers dipping their toe into self publishing are charging less because they're nervous, maybe. and freebies pull people in. Once the authors see what they can get they'll charge that. Supply and demand I suppose. Rowling might even give her book away at some point beause she doesn't need the money, and she's knows the real money is in merchendising (for her) anyway.
Self published, unknown guys like myself, charge little for the ebook to build a readership, I hope that people will still want a print copy, screenwriters will still want to adapt, producers will still want...well, ya get the idea.
It is a little scary to think of it terms of de-valueing the work (thats the real tragedy.) But on the other hand, I think its a trend right now, these 99 centers. I think the cream will rise as it always does, price will find it's sweet spot based on readership.
Marketing company's really need to be paying better attention to whats going on here. They're still thinking inside the box along with pricing and traditional publishing. Amazon and google are already looking in the right direction with that too. So I think there needs to be some Independent media company's poking their heads in here soon and re-thinking what they do and how they do it.
There's alot going on, and a lot coming up in self publishing and no one seems to have a handle on it; a view of the full, big picture, cept maybe Amazon, and I know there are still a lot of amazon haters out there, but there pretty good at raising monkeys and growing banana trees, and there getting better and better at selling them too.

Maybe it's because of all the talk recently about the roles of agents and editors in the future and how they will serve as gatekeepers, but when I was browsing through new books for my Kindle last night, I found myself really distrusting the very cheap e-books unless I recognized the author's name already. I feared I would be purchasing low-quality work; the stigma against self-publishing was at work. I still don't want to pay $15 for an e-book, but I didn't find myself too tempted to get a lot of cheap ones instead, even as impulse buys.

Also, you're right. People only have so much time to read, so even if all e-books were that cheap, people probably wouldn't buy that much more since it would still take a lot of time to read them.

You sure are smart, Nathan. Being a long time blog read, I already knew that but damn...

This is a really interesting observation and I think, ties publishing more definitely, to the game theory of economics as well as the tragedy of commons. Nice.

Dan, are you calling used book buyers undesirable? I thought we were just savvy shoppers. Why pay $35 for Rowling when it will be $4 at the thrift store if I wait a month. It would take six months for me to get a turn to read a library copy.

This is a market iTunes has successfully tapped. Why comb through piles of used CDs at the thrift store when I can download that song I've been looking for at $1. The CDs pile up higher than records now at my local thrift and the artists gets part of my dollar. Why would I sift through piles of disorganized books if I can find the one I'm looking for cheaply and quickly online? And the writer would get part of my buck and the 20 other people's bucks who would have bought that book used over its lifetime. I wouldn't have to buy furniture to store my library or put them away when they pile up in the kids room. When I couldn't find the physical copy of the book I wanted to read to my daughters class I downloaded a free copy, but would have willingly paid another dollar to not have to search the stacks. That's where the volume of sales will come from.

I think that debut writers and those looking for a temporary boost in sales will place their books at 99 cents.

But, there are a lot of people who are paying $2.99 and $3.99 without batting an eye for indie authors who have at least one other book out there. Their sales are not hurting. Dropping the price per book reduces the percentage they get, which in turn mean they'll have to sell roughly six times the number of books to make up for a single $2.99 sale.

The big publishers will always get $9.99 or more for their big name authors whom they've marketed well. And people will buy the 99 cent and the $1.99-$3.99 indie authors books, too. Like you said though - they'll choose what they want to read and how many books they are willing to buy. Price, to a certain point, won't deter reader from buying from an author they like - indie or traditional.

Great post, Nathan!

In my opinion, we are going to reach a happy medium. Prices will lower to more affordable prices. Beginning writers may need to be "discovered" by readers before they can charge for their work. Once they build a following they will be able to increase those prices to a certain point. I personally welcome this system even though I am currently unpublished. Musicians have to play their music to an audience for free, build a following, and then they are able to sell music/get picked up by a producer. Why should it be any different for writers? At the end of the day this will benefit the publishing houses and writers. Publishing houses will have lower marketing expenses and the writers they pick up will be better able to market themselves. It will be more of a partnership, the publishing house taking over the part of the business that writers don't want to have to handle (editing, printing, etc.) Also, how much nicer (if we get there) to have publishers going after writers who are building large followings instead of the other way around...Dare I say, publishers might query writers? :o One can dream :)

Awesome post :)

This is fascinating to me. I have recently been toying with a service that I'd like to charge $110. for, an hour, but that I'd be willing to take (rather than lose) a client for as low as $30.

Sort of like Priceline.com only different.

I don't want to lose any prospective client. But I want them to value and afford my service. And, politically, it feels like, too often, needed services/products are only accessible to the richer amongst us, when the less financially secure may need (and benefit society from having access to) our product/service even more.
i.e., not everything is a luxury item nor should it be.

A friend of mine has been working with "pay what you think it's worth and what you can afford" for some time now. And, myself, once, in a rough patch, someone gave me their service for 10% of its typical value. I voluntarily upped that amount over time as I got back on my feet to what I was comfortable paying: 40% (over which I wouldn't be able to afford it).

There's always a balance between the two: that's marketing.
The low cost introduction of E-Books was a necessary step in helping the technology grow, think napster. In time, the industry will adjust to the market and steadily step up pricing to sustainable levels. The consumer will either pay more, for a perceived improvement in quality and or service, or the industry will adapt to meet the consumers expectations. Either way, cheap E-Books will probably still be available, somewhere, somehow.

All of this discussion of ebooks has been madly interesting.
First, while I adore J.K. Rowling, I would try to borrow the book before paying 100.00 (I would content myself with a re-read of her others while I waited.
As to the 99 cent.... Well...Pen and Ink is following The Wooden Men.
http://thepenandinkblog.blogspot.com/2011/04/pen-and-ink-blog-travels-amazon.html
The results aren't in one this one.

One thing this price point argument fails to take into the consideration is not the willingness of the customer to pay, but the ability to pay. Economics don’t take place in a vacuum. You have to look at the bigger picture, which is that over the past ten years, the median household income has fallen to below $50,000 while inflation continues to soar. This means that Americans have less discretionary income to spend on books, CDs and other types of entertainment. For example, now with the cost of gas going up, I’m seeing a lot of people on my social networking site wondering how they’re going to get to work and feed their families. These are people who read copiously. If the price of fuel, food and goods continues to soar, I can see 99-cent eBooks becoming even more popular. So publishers can artificially inflate eBook prices so that the most Americans cannot buy them; or they can look at what book prices were ten years ago and lower the price to reflect what people actually have in their wallets.

I will say that when I see a book that's $0.99, I'm actually more suspicious about it. I ask myself why the author thinks their novel-length work is worth so little.

Oddly, I become more picky if the price point is so low.

I think Amanda Hocking is an excellent example of price discovery and why there's no real reason to worry about everyone pricing their books at 99 cents. She prices the first books in her trilogies at 99 cents, hooks you, and prices the additional books in the trilogy at $2.99. Very smart, very profitable. I think it's an excellent model to follow.

Authors aren't stupid. JK Rowling and Stephen King will never price their books at 99 cents. They don't have to. The 99 cent price point will always be the bastion of new authors hoping to be discovered.

"Let's say that everyone sold their books at $0.99. Stephenie Meyer, J.K. Rowling, James Patterson, J.A. Konrath, Amanda Hocking... everyone.

What would that publishing world look like?"

Nathan, checkout the Kindle UK charts.

Kindle UK has just been flooded with cheap backlist books by established writers with history, followers and celebrity.

The "indies" have been decimated overnight!

Only one indie book, ours - Sugar & Spice, Saffina Desforges - is still in the top five (by the time you read this that may have changed), and that only thanks to our having got to such a strong position (20,000 a month) when the going was good.

We are still, just, the number one thriller on Kindle UK, but that seems to be a because no big name thrillers have been dropped in price.

One of our closest indie rivals dropped from the top ten to the top forty in a matter of hours as the cheap "names" swamped us.

It's a bloodbath.

I don't buy $0.99 books. I also don't buy ebooks that cost more than the associated hardcover.

You're right about the economics, but there's a third solution that has worked reasonably well for both up-and-comers as well as established artists in the music industry: Pay what you will. Those who are broke or don't want to pay will pay next to nothing. Others with more disposable income or who place higher value on an item will pay more, and sometimes more than retail would have been.

What's broken (and probably has been for some time) is putting a retail pricing scheme on what is, ostensibly, art. The agency model breaks it even further, because when retailers aren't free to alter pricing to meet demand, sales are lost, either by people losing interest or piracy. I can say that's happened at least once to me, with Anna & the French Kiss. I don't want a dead tree version, and it's insulting to have to pay more for the convenience of an ebook.

As price pressure continues, I wonder if we will see a situation where books go to Free, but are Ad supported. Authors become like TV channels, and the more eyeballs you can deliver, the better and more high paying adds in your book.

After these messages.....we'll be right back.

"The 99 cent price point will always be the bastion of new authors hoping to be discovered." Why because we've had it for like a whole year, two years? It's clear that no one (other than John Locke) can make a living selling 99 cent books. Unless you live in an igloo.

If the point is develop a loyal fan base, and you're finding that fan base in the 99 cent bargain bin, you might also find they they aren't willing to follow you to $2.99 or $3.99.

The majority of Americans read 1-3 books a year. Let's say 3 books at trade paperback prices, around $15. That's $45 or so dollars a year.

Most people would be fine with that, give or take 10 bucks. Then there are the avid readers, but maybe they only read 12 to 20 books a year. They're still happy to pay anywhere from $7.99-$15 for the most part. Then you have the super readers. These people read at least a book a week. That's 52 or more a year.

The $0.99 and $2.99 books are designed not for the average or even the above-average consumer of books, but for the super-consumer.

I seem to recall the arguement against Ben Franklin and his idea for free public libraries as potentially dooming the publishing industry. Of course that didn't happen and perhaps we have the same thing here. Self-publishing ebooks is still experimental; we have yet to see the long term effects. Had public libraries wrecked publishers then the libraries would also have gone away. Then the publishers would have returned and no experiment like that would have been tried again. History is replete with civilizations that have decimated their resources and disappeared or moved on. But humanity as a whole survived. The same thing here?

"Are we headed to free for e-book prices or will we find a way to charge as much as people are willing to pay?"

I think people will always be willing to pay at least some amount for something like an e-book since there will always be demand for them.

Do any of the posters think that writers were decently paid prior to the ebook phenomenon? By how much have publishers advances changed in the last twenty-five years? the last fifty? Isn't it the publisher's ox that's being gored, not the writer's?

If authors tell people a book is worth 99 cents, then it's worth exactly 99 cents. Most of the top ten kindle books are over 7 bucks. Most of the top kindle 100 books are over 7 bucks. Self-pubbed authors use that to bolster the claim that people are only willing to pay .99-$2.99. However, since 98 percent have only tried that price-point and no other, it's a rather specious argument. Correlation does not equal causation.

There are some "indie" authors selling over $4 and doing quite well. Why? Because their audience is willing to pay that. If a literary fiction writer prices his new work at 99 cents, it's almost impossible for him to achieve the same level of sales as a thriller or paranormal writer at the same price-point. If you're going to sell 3200 copies no matter what, you might as well sell them at $4.95 and not $0.99.

'Human progress is a steady march towards greater efficiency.' Clearly, you are not acquainted with Irish bureaucracy.

Will Entrekin has a point about the $5 sweet spot, i. e. the price of a mass market paperback less the printing and binding and handling costs. But it is harder to find an e-book equivalent to the hardcover and trade paperback windowing system.

C. L. Phillips, Merry Old England's version of the tragedy of the commons was exaggerated by big landowners in support of the notorious 18th Century Enclosure Acts, which allowed them to basically steal common lands with the support of the state.

I second Mira and Josin re Amazon. Self-proclaimed 'independent' authors are a damn sight more dependent on Amazon than many of them care to admit.

And Mira's collective idea is interesting. As a matter of interest, I own a share of a commonage adjoining my farm in Ireland. I am what's called a tenant-in-common, and can graze the land (well my livestock could, I hate the taste of grass...) as can the other tenants-in-common, but not the general public. An ancient form of collective, in fact.

Anyway, I have now finalized my publishing game plan. I'm going for the 99 cent e-book approach, BUT I'm going to turn it around. I'm going to PAY the reader 99 cents! If 99 cents can't compete with free, how can free compete with getting 99 cents along with the e-book? I'll be the biggest bestseller of all time!

Oh, wait...

Sorry I'm so late to the table, but I do want to chime in. This eBook movement is, in my opinion, going to change the way our children read for the better.
I was one of those kids in school that played football and wrestled, but was really a closet geek. I would read every Fantasy book that came out from JRR Tolkien to Robert Jordan. But, the one thing I remember is that the cost limited my ability to get more books.

The library in town was slow to fill the shelves with new books and when you are reading a series, you have to read the next one.
My point is, if I could have shown my father that the books I was reading only cost .99 to $3.00 a piece instead of $8 or more, he would have been more open to me getting new books.

It isn't going to be a tragedy, I think it will make the millennium literature accessible in a way that it has never been before.

Whether it is advertising in the books or some other scheme that hasn't been thought up, publishers will find a way to get a cut.

Great post Nathan, especially being one of those unknown authors trying to make their s-pub mark on the world. It is going to work out, I have faith.

Why wouldn't we see prices decrease and settle in at the $0.99 - $2.99 level? There's going to be a lot more ebooks uploaded for sale in the next couple of years, and the current ones won't go away. Publishers will get up backlist, authors will get up backlist of books with reverted rights, people with a novel in a trunk will dust it off, and everyone will put their books up for sale.

What happens when there are five million ebook titles for sale instead of the 800,000 or so that Amazon has now? Prices will be driven down.

Great post!

"At the end of the day, there are only so many people in the world who read books and only so much time in the day they spend reading them and so much money they're willing to spend for them. People do buy a few more books than they end up reading, but not that many more."

This is EXACTLY what I said in response to an earlier post by you on the advent of e-books when I first started following your blog a year and a half or so ago.

I think we're heading for a saturation point in e-books, and I think that when that happens, people will start to look at price as a mark of quality in books. This could be one way to explore with "price discovery".

I think a book is a form of entertainment like iPhone apps, mp3s, and the rest of digital medium. The best stuff will rise to the top. But if I have to choose between paying for angry birds or downloading a book, the book had better be at a comparable price.

Right now, traditional publishers just don't get it. And agents are about to feel a lot of pain as their industry shrinks.

Great article, Nathan. Several excellent comments so far, too; but, what no one has mentioned (or maybe I missed it) are the ebook samples. Both Amazon and Smashwords require their authors to allow for sampling. Smashwords gives the writer a choice as to how much of the book can be sampled...up to 40%, I think. Just like browsing in a bookstore.

I randomly bought ten .99 ebooks, after sampling. The samples were okay to really good. I didn't finish a single one. They went south really quickly. Probably not a good survey sample with the huge numbers of .99 books out there, but it was enough for me.

I recently published my first ebook and set the price at $2.99. I think the quality and storyline warrants that price, even for a "newbie" author. I'm hanging on to the hope that slow sales (after only about four weeks in) are due to less than adequate marketing and not the price. I might go down to .99 but I'll never give the book away.

As an avid reader, I'll pay big for my favorite authors; but, not for an unknown. Still, if the price is .99, and the author is unknown to me - I'll skip it...

Time is another factor. Most people, I think, simply don't have the time to browse all the .99 ebooks, looking for that one pearl. I start my search at the 2.99 level in a particular genre, then I look at the cover. If the cover is alluring, I'll give it a closer look. If the synopsis and reviews are good, I'll sample; and then, maybe, I'll buy the book.

Great article Nathan. Thanks for this. There is a lot to think about when pricing our books. One thing, I think people forget, is whether or not you're building an audience with these low prices or with places like Groupon.

Are people going to come back to you as the author or are all those sales simply because people will buy anything for $.99? I represent Bob Phibbs who has a lot of opinions on things like Groupon for that very reason.

http://www.retaildoc.com/blog/groupon-worst-marketing-business/

I haven't read all the comments, so if someone else already brought this up, I apologize.

You're mis-using the Tragedy of the Commons. The tragedy refers to the destruction of resources which have no owner, and that everyone can access freely. An example would be over-fishing that completely depopulates the fishery. If no one owns the resource, no one has incentive to maintain it. So everyone just takes from it until it's gone, unles they are restricted in how much they are allowed to use. At least that's the theory.

Elinor Ostrom, 2009 nobelaureate in economics, demonstrated in her reseach that the Tragedy of the Commons often won't happen, because people will set up their own rules of how to collectively manage the common resource, without requiring draconian controls.

Regardless, this concept cannot apply to literature, for a couple of reasons. First, intellectual property has a clear owner, who manages it and sells it or not, and who can have his/her rights enforced by law. Two, even if literature was available free to all, the act of everyone consuming that literature would not damage it. What, everyone reads Tolstoy, and suddenly Tolstoy's writing begins to disappear? That's not how it works.

I get what you're trying to say here, and for what it's worth I disagree heartily with those who say that ebooks should be $.99, or even free. But you're confusing your terminology.

Interesting and somewhat daunting post. I don't have anything novel to add to the conversation but I just found my way to you and your blog (and I'm already a fan) and so wanted to say hi.

Layton nailed it IMHO:

"I'll add something I learned on my first day of class in Contracts in law school: a fair price is what a willing buyer will pay a willing seller. Simple as that. Regardless of the moral or philosophic or literary arguments, that will win the day."

$100 for JK Rowling is perhaps a bit extreme, but I just shelled out $36 to have the collected works of Wolfgang Borchert shipped from Amazon.de. Given the lack of availability elsewhere (and that for some reason Amazon.de refuses to ship me used books) I judged that to be a fair price, especially with the euro-dollars exchange rate factored in.

I also pay to subscribe to The Financial Times, because I perceive value there that I don't in other news outlets.

So Nathan, based on personal experience I would say you are right on about price discovery.

I think people will gladly pay more than $0.99 for books, even e-books, provided there is a perception that value is being added beyond what they would obtain for the base rate.

Maybe it's because you love X Author and he/she refuses to "give" their content away (what I would call The FT Model), etc.

I think sometimes the media industry gets caught up in price and overhead numbers, and overlooks the fact that this perception of value is really the lynch-pin for its ability to generate revenue at the end of the day.

It's why piracy is such a problem for the film and music industries: piracy distorts the price discovery process.

But even still, the long-term solution for those industries is to enhance the value they add to the "products" they produce, in these cases the theater and concert-going experiences are probably ideal.

And you can take this right across the board to "content farms" such as Demand Media.

Great post, Nathan, but I don't think this is tragedy of the commons. I think this is supply and demand laws making their way.

Supply is going up extremely fast (authors die - their books don't, new authors show up, there is pressure to put out more books quicker, it is easier to get published).

Demand isn't catching up (readers die, argueably less readers overall in the digital age).

Spammers and scammers are filling up virtual shelves with trash.

E-books circumvent usual barriers to publishing, creating even more supply.

Money-wise, I think the situation's even worse than Nathan's post makes it seem.

Nevertheless, I think authors who want to write, will continue to write. And e-books don't need to be the author's only income. Cory Doctorow's books can be found free online, and he claims they help sell more physical books.

We'll find a common ground before we hit rock bottom. Not many writers want to see all the hard work they (and others, such as editors, artists, etc.) put into a book they probably view as their child going away for free. No profit, even after all that? There'd even be a substantial risk of loss. The public might like that, but the writers sure wouldn't.

If the book is good enough that it becomes an instant phenomenon in the vein of Harry Potter or Twilight or [insert literary phenomenon here], then perhaps giving away the first book would be worth it in the long run. But it'd take a very clever mathematician to calculate luck into the equation. If there is no benefit, why try and market it at all? We'd just keep the stories in our heads to tell our grandchildren rather than selling them, and the world would see a drastic decrease in publicly marketed writers.

Books would still be written, but they would be privately owned rather than stocked in the local bookstore. It'd be a step backward, and that's the last thing publishers and writers looking to make a profit want to see.

Again, the number of writers might stay the same. We write because we love to write; we aren't just in it for the money (I hope). But we wouldn't bother marketing it if it would be seen as worthless. A lot more books would be left to gather dust in the drawers, until a friend or family member asks to read it. And maybe that will be how word of the next hot project gets around in the future. I guess all we can do is wait and see, our fingers crossed as we hope for the best.

Great post.I hadn't thought about the commons and 99 cent sales. I'd like to see a debate between you and Joe Konrath. on this one.

The only problem I have with most anti-99-cent arguments is that they often fail to take into account the principles of revenue management. A product is worth whatever people are willing to pay for it at a given time. If no one is buying it, it doesn't matter whether you personally value your book at 99 cents or $99, because in fact it is worth nothing. If you price at 99 cents and your book starts flying off the virtual shelf, then experiment with increased pricing until you find the breaking point as dictated by the buyers.

The demise of ebook pricing will not be determined by the pricing techniques of ebooks by thousands of unknown authors.

BTW, despite all this talk of 99 cents, e-book prices are going up, not down. The best-selling e-books often cost more than a trade paperback, not to mind a mass market paperback.

I read a lot of books.

Ebooks, print books, library books, borrowed books. My decision to buy an ebook over a print book is set by the price.

If I can buy an ebook for half the price of a print book, I prefer to read it that way. But often the price is the same (a buck less) for the ebook or the print book. Which stinks. If I spend fifteen bucks on a book, I want to be able to loan it out (not all ebooks are lendable).

It seems like there's a lot of cheap and free ebooks out there...I've read quite a few of them. I still want to read the *good* books that I want to read. I hope publishers can figure out a pricing system that is fair. I don't mind paying for books. But an ebook should be less than a print book.

I spend way more money on books than I ever have because of my kindle. Ebooks aren't going away, and I think publishers and authors need to figure out how to make money with this medium -- without price gouging or giving books away free.

And please let us not forget those that are unable to purchase nice shiny new objects so that they can purchase words to go in 'em. Our libraries are still the point of entry into the world of books for them. Let's keep our fingers crossed.

I think the problem here is that if someone is giving away their book for free, being a new author or self-published, they will force others to meet the price demands in order to sell their books. Raising the price of your next book in the series would screw yourself, because the next up and coming author would have a book out that they are giving away. The same person who did not want to pay for your first book, would probably rather get another free book than pay for your second.

This method does not work for the betterment of all in the long run. Much of what is wrong with the world today is the fact that too many of us only seek what 'we' need, as opposed to looking at how our actions effect others. Personally, I don't care for ebooks, and have yet to buy one. But I can see how charging so little could effect others.

I do wonder though, is this so different from companies that sell used books? Once the book is sold, the origonal author doesn't get royalties if the book is resold by a used book store. So what is the answer? This is a tough discussion, and I don't think there are any clear answers. All I am sure of is we need to think of others, not just our own needs.

I love the writing and hate the selling... it would be sooo much easier if I were less of a curmudgeon.

I actually find the idea of having to promote yourself exciting. Sure it's intimidating, but at least you have power to do something. By creating an author platform and educating yourself about the industry, you don't completely leave your fate to the slushpile or the throw of the dice. Having to advocate for yourself is, like you say, just the way it is, whether you're a writer, an artist or an architect. I think the idea of being a genius working alone in a garret waiting for the big hand to reach down and tap you on the shoulder was always somewhat of a fallacy.

Even actors have to peddle their movies...

How are you book sales going?

I love the writing and I love the selling. I get just as much of a creative rush out of writing a guest blog post or making a book trailer as I do out of writing.

Good post and true. I have a background in media and marketing which has been a tremendous boost in promoting my ebooks (which are through a publisher). I can watch results and sales increase after any new promotion effort, media blitz, guest post, anything but it takes a great of time and effort.

Writing is no longer just enough - you have to be ready and willing for promotion, promotion, promotion!

Not exactly on your point, but for some reason the thought of everyone being able to publish anything makes me think of that old Groucho Marx quote "I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member." :-)

When anyone can be a published author, will authors themselves seek new standards of exclusivity?

As for self-promo,it really does come with the job these days unless you don't care about selling any books. I think the key is to find a promo method that suits you - you may suck at public presentations but be the best Tweeter ever. I have a novelist friend who eschews social media but reaches her cult fan base by serving on Con panels. These days there really is something for everyone.

Great post, as usual. These are exciting times, and I am grateful there are other avenues in case the traditional route doesn't work out for me.

Yes, everyone has to promote. The difference is that traditionally published authors have some help from agents or publishers on how that's done. For people without a big platform or a lot of marketing know-how, that's a big difference.

A little sceptical about this, to be honest.
What I see coming in some near future is a point of 1) promotion overload 2) e-book overload.

Not sure what's going to come first, and how soon. And, more importantly, what's the industry reaction going to be.

Just my feeling. Or maybe I'm reading too much into the trend of redundancy in the socialmediasphere. In which I partake :)

I keep telling myself that I can self/e-publish but when I think of all the work of promoting myself and my work, I talk myself out of it. I guess I'm just too much of a shrinking violet.

Insightful as always! I just pointed a new writer to your blog, because it remains the source of all knowledge in this business! :)

Love love love it Nathan, good stuff. This is so true and times have changed, the author needs to sell themselves just as much as the book. Thanks for everything.

Sometimes bemoaning isn't about being productive. Sometimes it's just about expressing a heartfelt emotion.

I just read Robert Newton Peck's "Secrets of Successful Fiction" over the weekend, and highly recommend it. He was a big advocate of authors self-promoting their books, even in the era when it was assumed promotion wasn't the author's job. If you've never read this book, I'd suggest doing it. it's the most helpful book on writing I've ever read.

And you have to watch every word you say in the Internet. It's all about author image, too.

Just having a blog and a twitter account don't guarantee sales, either. I've had a presence for nearly a year and recently released a short story via Amazon and Smashwords. I'm averaging about one sale per week ... and this is for a story priced at 99 cents!

So, I tend to agree with Nathan. The name authors still have a huge advantage. What I like, though, is that I do have a chance under the new system.

If I keep writing and publishing, who knows? A good story, a little luck and I or any of us could be the next Amanda Hocking or John Locke.

You're right good looking people like Snookie and me have better odds. Fantastic point!

So - he/she who hustles best gets the golden plum? And occasionally someone in publishing might decide to elevate the lowly unpublished, hmmm? Sounds dreary especially when the demise of celebrity books may not happen. . .

My take is that you write the best you can, you try like hell to get it out there and then wait to see if you're one of the blessed. If not, it's try, try again. OR time to look at alternatives. There is no clear path, we must make our own.

No promises, kind of like 'no reservations'? It may be a great time to be an author, if you have tenacity and strength of will. And a product others want.

Hi Nathan. Interesting article, enjoyed it. Thanks for posting.

I wrote some similar musings recently on out blog in an article entitled 'The eBook Revolution'. Maybe worth a look when you get 5mins. It's available through our main page link.

Best regards

Adam Charles
iWriteReadRate.com

I think that consistency is also going to be a part of this moving forward: a presence might not help any one book very much (though it can) but over time, a strong platform can help a career. While the 'net can move fast, building relationships still takes time, and it's those relationships that make it easier to spread the word about your work. Investing for the long haul seems to me to be a good way of looking at platform....

As a consumer of books, I love it when an author does a book tour, or has interesting marekting pitches on their wevsite (contests, blog promotions etc). And it works! I follow blogs of authors who I haven't even read their work b/c I find them to be interesting people. And yes, I now have their books on my To-Read list. Putting a face to a name can really help.

I completely understand why an author like Barry Eisler opted to self-publish. He is already a successful writer with a loyal fan base. He has a strong platform, and his fans will follow him.

But what about someone like me? I do not have a proven track record or loyal fans? If I self publish my book, who will know it's out there? I can do all the self-marketing in the world, but in the end, it may not make a difference. Of course, I may get lucky (I could be the next Amanda Hocking...one could dream) but even Amanda admits her success is part luck and part hard work.

Nathan - you are right. Everyone has a chance, but not every one will succeed. The same way everyone has an opportunity to buy a lotto ticket, but not every lotto ticket is a winner!

I think overall it's a good thing, I do, but I still find it frustrating how well many mediocre books sell, and how poorly some really great books perform.

I suppose in the long run there isn't much that I can do about it. Just write the best book I can, and make sure that it is as accessible to as many readers as possible.

Anyone who thinks they don't have to work for it clearly hasn't thought it through.

It's like most things in life. The harder you work for it, the better shot you'll have at succeeding.

Yay for sanity!

I don't understand where the idea comes from that the rise of e-readers automatically means the end of publishers and all that.

Even if Congress passed an ecological resolution tomorrow that said paper could no longer be produced and that all written material had to be transmitted via computer, e-reader, etc, that doesn't mean that publishers are doomed. They'll still publish, just in a different medium.

The rise of epublishing doesn't equate to better quality with self-publishing.

So many people act like self-publishing is this shiny new thing, and it's not. It's not even a novelty for it to be the "norm". The bulk of books put out in a given year are always self and vanity published. But, being self and vanity published, almost no one hears about them.

What's happening now is on par with the WGA archives. Every year, tens of thousands of screenplays are registered, and less than 1% get produced. Each subsequent year drops more tens of thousands into the stack, and those older ones still aren't produced. MAYBE, if someone gets a movie deal they can retool and sell an old screenplay, but it's not likely.

E-self-publishing is exactly like that. You upload your drop into the ocean while the tide pours in on top of you. The chances of anyone seeing your drop are slim, but it can happen if your drop happens to be attached to something shiny and gold.

But, if you go with a publisher, then you get to float on top, in a nice container that people can see straight off. It's still not a sure bet, but it's a lot better than being one of the guys who gets sucked through a fish's gills and expelled without a thought.

No name authors might be at a disadvantage, but that's only for today. As I am willing to bet that in the future no-name authors with un-publshed works as a group , will become the most important people in the world to the big publishing houses.

Why? Because of the mass raising of the self-published authors that is happening today. These brave pioneers are moving the industry so fast that they are about to pull the rug from underneath everyone and they are going to change the game.

Here's the scenario; as more self-published authors become successful it will draw more readers away from the the publishers. The publishing industry will adapt. Literary agents will stop accepting queries and instead start reading amazon kindle's bestseller list to hunt for new authors to represent. When that starts to happen, new authors will have no choice but to self-publish just to get noticed. Which will result in the competition moving from literacy agent's inbox to the web for everyone to see.

The increase in openness will cause the quality of self-published work to improve (this is already happening) to the point it will be on par with a traditionally published work. When we hit that point authors (know as well as un-know) will no longer need a publishing house to streamline their work, package it and sell it for them. Because at that point publisher aren't adding anything to a book, they have just become redundant. All an author will need then is an agent that has a good advertising agency behind them that's willing to take a bet on their clients work.

So how does this benefit the no-name unpublished author. Let me tell you, in order to prevent from becoming redundant publishing houses will be forced to learn new ways to insert themselves in the process. And the only spot I can see them filling is finding away to connect with unpublished no-name authors before anyone else gets a chance to be notice them.

My thoughts on this might be slightly over simplified but I think something simairly to this is already happening.

I reached similar conclusions this past weekend. As you said, "It isn't good or bad ... it just is. It's the time we're living in." Last week, I attended three days of robotics competitions in which several people from NASA, including the head of interplanetary exploration, spoke about future technology. Last night, I read a couple of articles about the movie industry and how films will soon be produced by major film companies in ways better adapted to an audience that watches many of their movies on cell phones and computer screens. Then I read an article about Houghton Harcourt teaming up with Amazon to produce some of Amazon Kindle’s eBooks as paperbacks to be sold in brick-and-mortar bookstores. I sat back and suddenly realized: wow, the future has arrived. It isn’t good or bad; it has elements of both, as always; but, basically, it just is. The future arrives much more quickly than it used to. In one lifetime, rapidly developing technology can put businesses through several evolutions. The trick, I think, is to embrace the new reality, to adapt to it and make it work for you.

The benefit of self-publishing good, well-edited, nonmainstream books is that they have a chance to be discovered, to at least win awards and garner great reviews – things that make a writer happy and validate their work. Those books also have a chance to find an audience as opposed to sitting in a drawer, which is especially important in today’s world, as the big publishing houses are no longer interested in supporting midlist authors. Many self-published and indie authors would have been successful midlist authors in the fairly recent past. There’s no use complaining about it, but there’s also no sense in refusing to self-publish a good non-mainstream book or a well-written book on which the big publishing houses for whatever reason don’t want to take a chance.

As someone getting ready to epublish, I've enjoyed and benefited from these recent blog posts enormously. Thank you!

I'm wondering if some prognostications (always wanted to use that word) could be made in re: YA books and ereaders. I wonder what the market is right now and how that development is going. I've got 2 teenagers and would never think of buying them a Kindle unless there was a very special reason to do so (like they were going to be parked on the North Pole for months with no library or bookstore to go to). But I do see the day coming when they will put in their request, and like their requests for iPods, cell phones, and the family car keys, I will eventually acquiesce. Does anyone know what's happening in that market, or where online one could go to to check up on it?

We’ve been reading your posts and decided to try an experiment: Pen and Ink has published a short story on Amazon. Lupe posted about it today. http://thepenandinkblog.blogspot.com/
There has been so much written about self publishing that we wanted to track a venture and inform our readers of the results. The Wooden Men, a folktale based on a Mayan Legend, costs 99 cents. http://www.amazon.com/The-Wooden-Men-ebook/dp/B004T50IRW.
We also discovered the free kindle downloads for Macs, PCs, Blackberry, Android, iPhone and iPad and the Windows 7 phone
http://www.amazon.com/gp/feature.html/ref=kcp_ipad_mkt_lnd?docId=1000493771
There has been so much said about Kindle. This download is your chance to view content without having to buy a Kindle

I think the promotion aspect could be fun and challenging. It's another way to use that creativity, especially with promotion materials. I'm not a great salesperson or anything but it could be fun developing the materials and coming up with ways to get your book out there.

What really gets me about the self-promotion is the push to not only undercut other writers (e.g. writing blog posts for free) but also other workers.

My non-fiction cheese book came out last year on an independent press. I got a number of requests from food stores to promote my book by doing a cheese class for their customers. The cheese world is very small, however, and I quickly realized that they had been paying another cheese professional $250-$300 for doing the same class they wanted me to do, for free, in the name of promotion. Plus, they were going to sell the books.

Work for free and take the food off someone else's table? No thanks.

That's just one example but I'm on deadline for a new book proposal so I'll stop there. Luckily or unluckily, the majority of my income does not come from writing so it's easier for me to say "no", but the line between self-promotion and scabbing seems to blur more every day.

@Caroline, while it's true that actors, as well as musicians, do press junkets, the big difference is that the costs of those marketing efforts (red carpet, premieres, junkets) are picked up by the studio. Nor are actors/musicians, at least not once they have a product released by a major, relied on to be the sole source of marketing. All of which is expected from authors. I spent more on marketing my book than, in all likelihood, I will ever make from it. And I had ZERO marketing support. I've also spoken to enough writers to know that this is pretty typical.

I do think there are some good novels that have been turned away by the traditional publishers. Hopefully some of those will have a chance to succeed in the self-published world. It's definitely a different playing field than it used to be.

True, true! If everyone's going to be able to publish, there will be way more for everyone to wade through, not just agents and editors--and if you don't make any noise, you can't expect anyone to find your book out of the thousands of others competing for attention. At least, not in any great numbers. The people who have backing from their publishers will benefit the most, but even they will have to help with the promotions.

I am still skeptical of self-published and indie-published books, despite the success of Amanda Hocking, J.A. Konrath, etc. It's not the self-promotion I loathe, it's the poor writing quality and typos. I'm reading a self-published book now, and it's full of typos. It drives the editor in me nuts. In addition to all the marketing efforts people put into their self-published books, they should hire an editor, too. Please.

Takes me back to Utopian Lit. A long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away . . . there was an Animal Farm ;)

And sadly I am reminded of a conversation between a grandma and her little girls, in which she said this:

"Oh, that's just some books and junk, you don't want /those/."*

If we /are/ to have a future, we need to get nimrods like that away from kids regardless of promotion. O_O

*They ended up buying fake hair.

I have the same concerns as Sasha – book overload, self-promotion overload. I realize that I’m only a single individual and that I can’t attach my POV to everyone. However, after the fall of the music industry, I stopped buying music. The stuff on the airwaves designed to please the masses doesn’t impress me. Finding indie bands worth a listen is just too time-consuming. Everyone thinks that he/she’s great stuff, and the ones that actually pass listening muster are far and few in between.

It takes very little actual creative talent to design a professional looking website and self-promote like crazy.

I do really like that post headline. It is true not only for writers, books and words, but the people of the world. At least it made me think, a lot and feel even more.

I can see what Sasha is saying about overload. Some sort of filter has to be in place if only to limit the selection.

I think this overload phenomenom is pandemic. Drug stores, convenience stores, restaurants, Starbucks, reality shows, 18-game NFL season, etc. More is not always better. Mass appeal or demand cannot always be appeased through mass selection of supply.

It just struck me. I had an image of a haystack in my mind.

In the current model, the haystack has a label: "Publishing Industry--Editors, Agents and those who have been here before only, please." Only a few authors will be found and distributed.

The new model hay stack has a sign, too. It reads, "E-Publishing--Come all that may, you deserve this." Only a few authors will be found, despite mass distribution.

We have to pick our haystack. Do we wade the treacherous rapids of the traditional publishing world or do we tread water in the deep pool of the self-published.

I am Metaphor Man today. I can leap tall similes in a single bound.

Things, they are a'changin'. Still, there's no question that you have a leg up if you're traditionally published. Not only does the publisher provide you with editors, do the formatting and cover art, etc... you also have clout when seeking reviews that an indie pub doesn't have.

I've run across dozens of book blogs that don't accept self-published books for review. That right there makes a difference. Perhaps things will change in that regard over time, but the little-self-pub-who-could will have to work much harder for recognition than the traditionally published.

At least the option is there now so that manuscripts don't have to linger in the drawer. Exciting times!

Another great blog. You really have a nice way of cutting through the crap.
Aloha
Toby
http://www.tobyneal.net/

This seems silly even to "bemoan" the fact. After all, as long as the idea of selling something has been around, so has the idea of getting people's attention in order to buy it -- even if it's just shouting out "Hot Dogs! Get your hot dogs!" That's still advertising. It's long been true that it's the best-promoted stuff, not necessarily the best stuff, that sells the best.

I like what @magpiewrites wrote...promoting is intimidating and exciting. Maybe I'll learn enough from this process to write a book about it!

Well said, and may I add that it's never too early to start to build your author's platform. If you're inclined to blog, put it up now and commit to a regular posting schedule. Even if your first book is barely more than a twinkle in your eye, take the steps to develop your reader base today!

Very good post. I believe now is the time that a book without much promotional power has the best chance in history to become a hit. But I still believe that chance is infinitely remote. As much as I'd like to just sit and write for my publisher, I understand that I must get my name and book out there. I think the biggest mistake authors (including myself) make is wasting time with ideas that don't work. Again, good post. I've been a quiet reader of your blogs for quite some time. Thanks.

Godspeed to writers everywhere, right? What's stopping us now? Oh yeah, that whole marketing thing.

Well, I don't know, Nathan. This is a good article, I certainly agree that this is a great time to be an author (!!), and you may very well be right about promotion.

But I'm still on the fence about this whole thing. I keep coming back to the bottom line, which is that the Kindle came out less that four years ago. It's all so new. And what is happening now may not be happening a year from now. Things are changing quickly.

I think it's important not to take a narrow view. That was the problem, imho, with Mike Shastkin's article. It's looking at things under a microscope that should be looked at with a wide-view lens.

One thing I do think - which is that books have been traditionally hard to find. Wandering around a bookstore is a terrible way to find a book. I don't think we are used to thinking about how to deliver a book to a consumer that wants it.

I think that will change. Readers want to know about books. I know this because I am a reader, and I want to know about new and good books all the time.

I think that new ways to help me find those books will start popping up, which is good! I think we are just starting to see in what ways books will be matched with the right readers.

Hopefully, it will be easy ways, that will leave the writer with time to write! I hope so, anyway.

But I tend to be very optimistic about this whole thing. I think all the problems will get worked out over time.

But that's me.

Thanks, Nathan, really interesting discussion!

When did an author NOT have to promote him- or herself? Most of us just don't have an agent to help out with that job, but we do it constantly. This will make no difference.

This is a very relevant blogpost and I'd love to be able to share it on my podcast BlogsAloud. I'd like to get permission to use it on my episode Friday.

http://blogsaloud.com

"Just being an author" never did exist. The first thing my first publisher did was send me a multi-page form to fill out, stating specifically what I would do to promote the book under contract. Then, it included bookstore signings, library appearances, touring, attending cons.

Now they want to know if you have a website, a Facebook page, a Twitter account. The difference? The latter you can do sitting at home in your jammies. I'll take the now.

Nathan,

I know you've done entire previous blogs on this topic but can/will you list in a one or two line sentence what authors need to do for self promotion?

Also, I've been in SAG commercials and have a great public speaking resume. How could this translate into self promotion since I've yet to sell my essay collection. Although, I've been published in many magazines. Do I pick up the phone and call, places, that may want speakers? Who would look for a speaker?

Last question, tweeting over blogging, blogging over tweeting, the same? Do both?

Sheila Cull

Sheila

For me this is a very timely post Nathan.
I was just notified by an agent that he would have taken on my book but I’m not famous enough. (Could be form-letter BS but I don’t think so.)
I get it.
I DO NOT have a problem promoting. That anyone would find self-promotion beneath them is either from another planet or so well known seeking privacy is part of the package.
As an unknown we can’t all be Susan Boyle. Whatever happened to her anyway.

Ms. Trite says:
If you are an ‘am not yet’ and you want to be an 'I am now’
Remember that unless you are an ‘always will be’
You’ll be a ‘once was’ which is better than a ‘never heard of’

Being successful, whether traditionally published or self-published is pretty much based on the same things. Quality product, good solid promotion, strong platform, consistency, persistence, hard work and a fair amount of luck.

I think this is a very wise post, Nathan. You've balanced the hype with long-term publishing wisdom. If aspiring authors could always take a long-term approach instead of looking for short-cuts, I think they would always be surprised by how successful they would become in the long run. At the end of the day, everything in publishing works exactly the same way life works: sow seeds, tend the garden, harvest later. The harvest is worth waiting for when you don't take short cuts.

I agree, but when Snookie and The Rock are called NY Times Best Selling "Authors" I just wanna hurl!

Good post. I do have fleeting moments where I wish I could be "just an author", as I think we all do; those moments coincide with the times where I'm deep in a project and really just want to spend all my time writing. But I have to say, for the most part I've found the process of promoting my books surprisingly rewarding.

When I sold my first novel I was frankly dreading having to go sell myself on Twitter and Facebook, but it turns out that the key to self-promotion is, paradoxically, not talking about your books too much. Going online and engaging in conversation with readers and other writers never feels like work to me.

We indeed seem to have reached the point at which promotion outweighs quality. That is probably the reason why I, as a lifetime avid reader, am not reading as much anymore. It is becoming harder and harder for me to find a book that interests me enough to spend my time reading it.

I find the idea of accepting, rather than railing against this trend, more than a little repulsive. It is akin to giving in and giving up to a concept that has little real merit. It may not be "productive" to bemoan it, but that depends on what one's definition of "productive" is. If making money from writing satisfies the definition, you are probably right; if being true to yourself and your values is the important thing, you're probably not. When the importance of the packaging exceeds that of the product, the end result is not good.

David, I personally agree with you, and it is a little sad - but only looking at it personally.

Looking objectively:
-We can't really judge "quality" for others - only for ourselves
-Thus, the best thing we can do is write the book of the highest "quality" (as we perceive it), and then promote it the best we can, hopefully to find readers who match us in the definition of "quality"

I just want to write the book I want to write- let it stand or fall on its own because if there's one thing that's subjective it's entertainment.

There are huge franchises that I've never read or seen a movie of. There are others I'll love till the day they pry my R2D2 action figure from my cold, dead hand. Or my tricorder (same thing. good thing I have two hands.) I can't make people like my book no matter how it's published. If anyone could figure out how to do that then they'd be very rich and everyone would love the same things.

I'm grateful the scene is changing. If I could put out the book that I want to write- and it resonates with a few people out there- that would be all I could ask for.

I think in the end that's what being a writer is about- being heard. How many people you need to be heard by to be happy will determine how much promotion you do or how long you're willing to keep knocking on agent's doors/try to get traditionally published. I also think that there are some folks who are unintentionally shooting themselves in the foot by giving the friends on FB/blog followers they do have marketing fatigue by overdoing it. It's a fine line between promoting and putting everyone to sleep starting every post with the name of your book.

This introvert is grateful for the e-publishing revolution, otherwise I might just stick with the Emily Dickinson route (my personally adopted current strategy of marketing myself) and let my relatives decide after I'm dead if anything in the trunk is worth putting out there.

Love the Wonderbar trailer, by the way! Good stuff, that. The floating corn dog is priceless.

~bru

Well said! My WNBA group (books, not basketball) hosted a panel on social media, and reputation management was part of the discussion. My post today is a recap and it links back here.

I got a comment from a reader that stumped me: Is it true that we should be blogging with a real/pen name for best results? Yes?

I'd like to point out that Amazon will also get 5% for dealing with all the payments. When figuring out where to set your goal, you have to tally all your expenses and then add 10% (divide by 0.9). It's the safest way to make sure you don't forget something.

Otherwise - it really helps to have an established following, but really, Kickstarter is great because word of mouth often can do the job for you. It's an amazing tool!

Wow, Nathan. Thank you so much for asking Mur to share her story. I had no idea there were places like this. Wow.

Mur, your story is inspiring. Thank you for generously sharing this information with us! This is very exciting and impressive. And I love your line about the puppies. :)

Nathan, where is that paypal button??

Nathan, it's like you live inside my mind or something (I didn't mean that to come off as creepy as it sounds, btw).

Just yesterday I was thinking about kickstarter as a way to create an app out of a PB I've written. I decided a while back that the ms probably wasn't high concept enough to attract a traditional publishing deal. However, it has features that would (IMHO) potentially make a good iPhone/iPad app.

It is exciting to be a creative person in an age where there are so many options for your work to "live" and reach people. Thank you for stoking the fires with your thoughtful posts.

Great post Mur, and I loved the interview with Nathan over at I Should Be Writing. Cross-promotion for the win! Pay attention people ;)

Kickstarter looks like a great tool, but it seems like something where it definitely helps to already have a decent social media presence. So, for people wanting to know how/why to get on the social media bandwagon, consider:

Step 1: start writing
Step 2: get networking
Step 3: finish writing
Step 4: use your network to get your Kickstarter campaign going so you can publish your writing in a professional manner
(Hopefully followed by Step 5: Profit)

I'm curious as to whether revenue like this would be taxable? Or is it a bunch of individual small gifts? I count the (trivial) revenue I get from my web site's paypal donate button as income since I consider it part of my business, but I don't know if I really have to.

Fascinating! I had no idea stuff like this existed.

The internet never stops amazing me. You can really do anything.

I took a similar approach, though not with Kickstarter.

By offering pre-sales of my novels I was able to raise roughly $6000 for each book for the (offset) printing. It took a couple of months to raise the money for the first book, but only a week or two for the second.

It's a good feeling to know that when the semi-truck rolls up with a pallet-load of fresh new books that they are 100% paid for, and the 1000 or so that haven't sold yet are free and clear profit that you can put toward the rent and the next printing.

Kickstarter is brilliant - if you're in the US.

I unearthed it a few years back now and at the time the site said they were planning to go international. In fact, it was the exact same wording in the FAQ that is still there now.

I'm not holding my breath! ^_^

My good friend Polly Law published her book by raising Kickstarter funds. For those who love obscure words, "The Word Project" stars her bricolage illustrations:
http://buttonwoodart.com/WP/WPA.html

Wow. I'd never even considered the possibility of such a thing. Very cool.

It would never work for me, but that doesn't make it any less awesome.

Thank Mur, and Nathan!

Holy Helpful Hannahs, Bat-Mur!

Fantastic success story. Congratulations. Thanks for sharing your experience.

Nathan, great choice for a guest post!

Great story, Mur, and congrats on your momentum!
I love the idea of podcasting your stories, I'll have to check that out.
I'd never heard of Kickstarter. I have Google Affiliate and adsense and never made one penny from either, so I pulled the ads. My blog looks much better without them.
- Thanks for the info and good luck!
PS love the image of the guitar guy, Nathan! You always have a great image to illustrate your article.

I'm not singling out Mur Lafferty here. I'm speaking in general terms. Obviously Mur has a good reputation that people know and trust. But I would like to mention a few things about the general concept of kickstarter.

On all levels, it absolutely astounds me that people would take their hard earned money and give it away to help fund a project and a person they know virtually nothing about. It astounds me even more someone would have the nerve to ask for it.

I saw one "aspiring" singer/actor/wannabe-rich-and-famous type on facebook last year run a campaign with a goal of making 20k in order to make a CD. I followed it for weeks, watching in amazement as trusting people pledged so he could meet his goal. And he did meet the goal. But I haven't seen the CD yet and he's disappeared from facebook. I'm sure there will be ramifications. But I also think whoever donated money to him got just what they deserved and learned a good lesson.

I'd like to know whatever happened to get a job, work hard, and save your own money instead of asking for handouts. I think I'd rather scrub floors on my hands and knees than beg anyone in public for money. And I'd rather donate money to a worthy charity than hand it out to anyone hocking a book, a song, or an acting career.

Anon 8:47:

Artistic sponsorship is a time-honored tradition.

Very interesting stats! You still need some marketing skills, which Mur has indicated and assessment of your audience.

I can see the value of Kickstarter for a series of novellas, and I'm assuming this is YA material that Mur is writing just from a quick look at her site. YA is hot right now, and that doesn't hurt either.

Good luck to Mur who seems to be on her way in the self-pubbed world (and who knows after that?).

For me, I'll think about it. It's always good to know the options out there. It's like anything else, you have to make your own choices.

I'll keep the post for reference.

I've seen these kickstarter book projects, and I just have one question:

Why do you need $1600 for an ebook conversion? Isn't that done in about 5 minutes by a doc-to-epub utility program?

Seriously. I can see needing $500 for a copy editor, and maybe a couple hundred for cover art or technical help with formatting. But if you're paying some company $1600 just to convert file formats for you, you -- and your readers -- are being ripped off.

...except for the fact that for an unknown, fresh baby author it won't do a lick of good. No one wants to take a chance on someone they have never read or heard from before.

Which, of course, the reply to that would be 'that's why you need web presence'. But if you spend all your time attempting to build the web presence, trying to find people to buy into you before you write the book, how are you ever going to find the time to write the book in the first place, between working a full time job, taking care of a family, and trying to care for yourself?

In short, it's called impossibility, unless you are disabled\unemployed and have all the time in the world to write, are independantly wealthy, or have magic powers.

No, I'm not a cynic. I'm a realist.

Discovering Kickstarter was a fab way to start this day and I thank you for bringing Lafferty's story to your readers.

I would hope that you stress that this plan is not for beginners, the unpublished or those who self-published and have material languishing online.

This warning seems obvious to experienced insiders, but the desperately hopeful will see what they want to see and miss the catch that they must already have a large audience/following to make it work.

very cool. I just backed a kickstarter project for a favorite musician of mine. It seems like a handy website

@ Anon 8:47 - I agree with some of your points as well about how easily some people will donate their money to a personal cause. But, the Impressionists could have used something like this to help fund their art (before it was accepted as art).

I wouldn't donate to a stranger (via the web), but I would donate to an author friend. I did like the fact that Mur offered incentives.

There will always be con artists trying to rip off the unsuspecting. One must always have 'eyes wide open' in the web world.

I've never thought about self publishing before, but I am beginning to think about it. Pen and Ink will be self publishing a book very soon. We will keep readers informed of the progress

"Artistic sponsorship is a time-honored tradition."


Mary Higgins Clark was widowed young, had small kids, worked full time commuting from NJ to NY and wrote her novels between four and six every morning. It took time and hard work, not entitlement.

Good old fashioned hard work is also a time honored tradition :)

Anon 9:21:

Imagine what Mary Higgins Clark could have accomplished with sponsorship.

Sponsorship allows the artist to put their energy into creation rather than survival.

Congratulations Mur! And thanks for this super informative post Nathan! I believe Cheryl Klein used Kickstarter for her book "Second Sight" too. What a great new way to help readers feel totally involved with a project. I love the community-oriented nature of this.:)

I also love Kickstarter (and indiegogo and the others like it). I think there are a ton of ways to utilize the site, particularly if you think of it as a collaboration between you and your fans. There are lots of ways to offer value and gain value beyond a book or app (though those rock, too). I've just launched my own project designed to enable me to give away school visits for free (yet get paid!), for example. Building relationships via your presence is they key, I think.

I love this post, and had never heard of this service before. I have been self-publishing for about 15 years; and it hasn't always been easy.

You are welcome to share information on my blog, writeouswriter.blogspot.com

"Imagine what Mary Higgins Clark could have accomplished with sponsorship."

Interesting.

It seems to me that we're seeing the dawn of a golden age in self-publishing. It’s awesome that Mur was able to raise so much money through Kickstarter because it means that enough people believed in his self-published work to donate money to his next project. Exciting times! Congratulations, Mur!

This is a great post Nathan, special thanks to Mur for providing all the links :) And thanks to everyone else for the additional comments, this is the stuff that makes being an artist in these bright times exciting! We have the power people, grab it by the balls and run!
*Also I must point out that you are channelling my need for info and responding via this blog in a bizarre twilight zone kind of way. Or perhaps I spend too much time on your blog. Chicken or egg, which came first?

A band I'm friends with is almost done with a Kickstarter campaign to fund their new album, and reached their goal in three days. Pretty amazing site.

Like I said yesterday: We all have to make money to pay the bills. But, hey, that's what the day job is for!

Interesting. Thanks for the post.

I participated in funding a project for an artist I didn't even know existed until I saw a recommendation from a friend on Facebook. I loved the artist's work and decided I'd be happy to throw a few bucks his way. My "incentive" arrived in beautiful condition, and I'm very happy I helped this artist achieve his goal.

How did I decide? Definitely from the Youtube trailer. Kickstarter is correct in advising that this tool is essential. It sold me!

Best of luck Mur! I'm going to check out your project now! :)

Thanks Nathan for a great series!

Nathan, of all the blogs I read, yours is the most informative and helpful to writers. Please don't stop blogging!

fyi, Nathan, this posted early, and it's beneath the baby video.

E-books will have taken over, and there will be no more bookstores, except for the ones that have morphed into combination book/toy/housewares/gift stores. Whether publishers struggle will depend on how they choose to navigate the e-publishing waters, and on how deep with self-pubbed authors the waters get. If they don't give authors enough of the pie, they might struggle, unless they develop an e-marketing strategy so good that it makes the idea of self-e-publishing scarier than it is right now.

The future is bleak, my friends.

Whatever model is on its way, the mutant telepaths will prevail.

I actually can't wait to see what happens next. There are so many possibilities.

What will ereaders look like in 5 years - that is the question.
I want one with the screen size of the Ipad and in color, but the battery life and glare free of the Kindle. And I want two pages displayed like a book too, but that's not your question. :)

The Big 6 will be a bit smaller and more selective about the quality of their books so it is a stellar experience for the reader. Maybe editors will actually edit again.

The epub/eread may take over all the mass market lines and make a huge dent in the scholastic markets. Good midlist authors with savvy marketing will make a living as writers!

Now 20 years from now, it will be a whole different paradigm because the children of today will define the publishing industry then.

I'm with Kate--I can't wait to see what happens next. I think we're going to see all sorts of different avenues and approaches, and I don't think print will quite be out by then (maybe in seven, eight, ten?).

I can see authors still going through agents and editors to try to establish themselves before shifting to epublishing later. I can also see epublished authors being picked up by the big houses, if the big houses are still in business (and I think they will be, but maybe not in the same forms).

But something exciting that I don't see discussed much is the role of Kindle shorts. For me personally, I am still trying to go the agent/editor/publisher route with my novel, BUT I am already considering self-pubbing my short fiction directly to Kindle. In that case, I think it makes great economic sense for writers, and it might be a way to get a name out there, if the stories are good. Who knows? Maybe people beyond the academy will actually start READING short fiction again.

Without the Gatekeeper, writers are about to head down a lawless road of every man for himself …

The future will still have a Gatekeeper, but that Gatekeeper will be the buying public … the very same buying public who launched Justin Bieber to superstardom.

Idiocracy comes to mind.

terripatrick is right on target. Yes: "The Big 6 will be a bit smaller and more selective about the quality of their books so it is a stellar experience for the reader."

There's a huge glut of mediocre fiction because publishers have so so so many slots to fill (they all want a monster share of shelfspace despite the quality of their own product on that shelf) that almost anything they can slap a trend cover (or title on) gets published.

Remember when you were a kid and you believed that every book published was something worth reading?

This might also mean that publishers spend a little more time promoting the titles they do publish, rather than just dumping them into the marketplace month after month after month to see if one of them might not sink as quickly as the others.

As for eBooks, I thnk terripatrick is right again... it's for another generation to tell me what's what.

Then again it's really hard to disagree with mutant telepaths.

Thinking about the way the Internet has changed a lot of things, including culture & news as well as the mainstream media arts we have know, I think the biggest Change will be inequality - The big few will get bigger and the rest will become smaller.

Publishing Side:
On the less successful side of things, the profligacy of books made available by e-pub will drive down prices but increase choice. Therefore, the returns on these from traditional publishers will be negligible. Instead they'll focus their attention on a smaller booklist, searching for that "next big thing". The publishers hope for mega hits, minimising Low and Middle earning books. An inverted pyramid if you will. It may even work, because of.....

e-Publishing:
The Internet:. Media has become an expanding rolodex people cycle through, looking for something eye-catching. In publishing, the utopia is each individual analysnig said rolodex and tailoring it to personal tastes. The truth is we don't have time for that, and so we turn to our friends & the net to manage this mass of information. As such, a groundswell of internet opinion can make everyone jump to the same page on their rolodex at the same time and BOOM...'Twilight' happens. With interconnectedness increasing, and voicing personal opinion becoming commonplace (twitter/facebook), popular groundswell can lurch at any given time, to any given book. Amanada Hocking for example. But the more interconnected we become and the more vocal we are with our opinions, the greater the inequality.

This happens because Groundswell feeds off itself. The more people participating in the mechanism or generating groundswell, the more books there are competing for the limelight (the small getting smaller). However, should talk align for a time behind one subject (basic probablility) the more people can become 'infected' by this Groundswell. As such a book sweeps across the net like a virus, feeding off its own popularity and hitting the "big time". For those that don't make it, the more books, the more chatter, the less probablility of the fortuitous alignment that starts the chain reaction. With “small” books becoming cheaper and “big” books holding or growing in price, the 'small' and the 'big' are pushed even further apart.

Two System Model:
I don't know - I'm working purely on a bit of philosophy and some napkin mathmatical modelling, but I look at it this way. Both Trad-Pub & E-Pub will become the norm and produce the Rowling's and the Hocking's of the future (Though I reckon you'll see some pretty binding contracts to stop the Konrath's - but that's another thought). In order for Publishers to continue to produce the same number of Grade A products (Grade A meaning “mega money”) they need a wide base of Grade B-F books to support it. With the cost of the "Average" book falling, They can't financially afford to build their own support structure, and so they'll allow the E-Pub sector to do it for them.

With culture having to cycle through the rolodex faster and faster as it grows in size, it increases reliance on interconnectedness to provide some guide to managing this mass of books. E-Pub creates a mechanic whereby only a select few rise out of the melange, but by all merry hell when they do, they go Global. The ultimate aim of Publishers is to produce ONLY 'Mega-books', and if it works out how to manage and manipulate Groundswell properly, it will finally have a mechanism to do so.

Give it 5-10 years and the publishing landscape, like the music industry, will appear (on the surface) largely unchanged. All that will change is those few at the top will become even more popular (Both culturally and financially), while underneath the number of authors you’ve never heard of will grow, not that you’ll notice.

Personally, I think there will be some kind of balance between e-books and regular books. Music stores are still alive and well despite the accessibility of downloadable music. I also believe that if agents weren't so darn picky, we wouldn't see such a mass movement of authors going the digital route. I speak from experience. One of my manuscripts was met with lots of positive rejction (yes, there is such a thing!) The general response was "Great story, but we cannot market it. Paranormal/supernatural/dystopian are the current demand. Maybe in a few years, the general public will want general fiction." I think there is a lot of proof that the general public just wants to read. As long as it continues to become increasingly difficult to land an agent/publishing house, the world of e-books will continue to rise.

I think e-books will take a huge swipe of the market, but I think agents and publisher will adapt and adjust their buisness models, probably toward film and other rights. I can't imagine turning down a half mill contract though. He must be extremly confident, extremly crazy or have something very sweet in the works already. As thw writing and writers; I think it's as strong as ever.
Here's on of my e-books. Half a mill anyone?


http://www.amazon.com/CLOVIS-POINT-ebook/dp/B003J35C80/ref=ntt_at_ep_dpi_3

I think the publishing landscape looks bright. There are more options and choices for readers and authors. That's not a bad thing at all.

Some really well thought out comments - it is an intriguing thing to try to envision. I'd like to look on the bright side but since I read almost as much Hollywood gossip and political stuff as writing stuff these days and see the mega deals given out to CSI actors, political flash in the pans, today's latest twittiot with the seeming discretion of a sample lady at Sam's pushing weinies in hopes of getting a few more sales, I have my doubts about the quality of what will be published.

I see more people making money from writing, fewer people being made "rich and famous" by it. Paper and digital will find a symbiotic relationship - writers taking charge of their careers more and publishers offering what they do best. Or not.

It's quite natural to look at the current situation and label it as 'the norm' but publishing has always been an evolving creature, and ebooks are just the latest manifestation. Paperback books gained popularity with the GIs of WWII and took off from there. They used to cost $.25 and if you wrote paperbacks you were considered a hack by the literati. Before that the 'dime novel' filled a similar niche. If you want to see the future, look at the past.

The situation is, as usual, confused. I'm all for it. In confusion there is profit.

I think ebooks will be a large part of the book trade, but no more than 50%. There will be fewer brick and mortar stores, but there will still be used bookstores and mom-and-pop stores as well as big chains. I think the publishing industry will still be trying to figure out how to cope with the changes as more and more authors (especially the midlist) turn to self-publishing. Unless one of the big six makes a stunning breakthrough in their thinking and the others all pile on the bandwagon, I don't see them getting a useful clue anytime soon. This may well lead to another rise of smaller presses that will, in another 20 years or so, conglomerate back into a handful of big houses.

The big authors will go out on their own, realizing that they have their platforms and the publishers need them more than the big authors need the publishers.

This will create a void in the publishing house coffers (and content) and publishers will begin to seriously cater to mid-list authors. Advances will be modest, but services will thrive (editing, marketing, design, etc.) Mid-list authors will also be looking to self-publish, though, so the publishers will struggle to attract the best talent.

Bookstores will evolve to keep enhancing the buying and reading experience. It will become less about buying a book, and more about the atmosphere / personalization.

I sincerely hope it takes longer than five years for e-books to take over print. Whatever happens though, I just hope real editors don't disappear. I know bad books happen even with publishing houses, but my fear with self-publishing taking over is mediocrity. Writers need (good) editors.

And I'm with Fearful Girl - I feel physically ill thinking of what has happened to music happening to books (i.e., Justin Bieber, Selena Gomez, the list goes on).

As a writer, the new trends could be really good for me. But I was a reader before I was a writer, and the reader in me is scared.

I'm conflicted.

1. Change isn't bad. It often stinks as you go through it, but that does not therefore make it bad.

2. I don't want my kid to grow in a world without bookstores... but evidently, she's gonna, so I need to adjust.

3. E-readers are simply not bathtub-compatible. Or toddler-compatible, for that matter.

4. The church was originally not all that excited about Gutenberg's press, if I recall my history.

5. What, exactly, are the underlying issues when it comes to e-books versus print, or the future of publishing? Is it about readers missing the physicality of books? Is it about crappy small screens? Is it about writing, knowledge, human connection... all of the above, plus more I haven't thought of?

I don't yet know where I come down on any of this.

Another interesting point - a number of the romance writers in my local almost-affiliated-with-RWA group have mentioned that they are getting pushed hard to take four-book deals when previously they had to push to get two-book deals. At least some publishers are paying attention to the rise of self-publishing and at least trying to buy themselves some time. Again, that doesn't mean the publishers in question have any idea what to do about it, but they have noticed the threat.

Eventually they'll figure out a method to lure the authors back. A lot of new authors still want that validation, but the already-published authors will be less and less likely to have that hang-up as they see the difference in profit margin. Contracts need to be gone over with a fine-toothed comb even more so than they did five years ago. But the self-pubbed authors will have to deal with battling the noise-to-signal ratio, and that ratio is going to skyrocket in the next few years as everyone who ever got a rejection leaps to self-pub now that some of the big names are doing it. Word of mouth is only going to do so much as far as gatekeeping goes. If it gets too bad, authors who don't have a following already will still probably try to go the traditional route so as to build one (the traditional publishing houses acting as quality control, which they're going to need to start taking more seriously if some of the crap that I've bought in deadtree is any indication), and then a lot will depend on the contracts as to how soon that author can move to self-pub, which is (supposedly) where the money is.

Agents (or at least contract lawyers) will still be needed to negotiate contracts not only with the publishers, but also for book clubs and foreign rights and options, etc, things that most authors don't know much about. (You can't self-publish a movie option.) The part of the industry I think will get the most growth is independant editors or editors for hire. Feedback from agents and editors is very often the difference between a good book and a great one, and authors are going to need someone to go over their manuscripts. I shudder to think of a future full of books that haven't been professionally edited (and copy-edited!) at least once.

I think the mainstream reader will still avoid most self-published books simply because there will be too much unedited dross out there. They want gatekeepers they can trust to provide them with polished novels. Any publisher who can consistently back truly good books can make self-publishing work, except then it isn't self-publishing really.

I'd expect the big six publishers to start to consolidate. We might have the big five in five years. I just can't see how they can continue to operate with decent profits with so much overhead.

We'll see more eBook only publishers.

Bookstores will being shrinking in size.

Finally, literary fiction that genre fiction is pretty much keeping afloat will find itself going indie. I can't see the big "five" having the ability to print a lot of loss leaders like in the past. They're going to depend on more sure things: their summer blockbusters.

6:45 AM? That's odd for you.

I'm hoping nothing changes that drastically. I hope that professionals who've spent their careers mastering the production of great books still have a viable industry to work for.

I don't think that's too unlikely.

I think the book industry is very strong. More people are reading books than ever before. However, I do believe that traditional publishing is changing. Are they in trouble? Maybe. I don't think the traditional bookstore will be dead in 5 years, but perhaps dying. The good news for authors is that there are loads of people out there who want to read. The challenge will be figuring out how to attract and sell to all those potential readers out there.

Five years from now will probably be similar to right now, but beyond that? Change is coming, and it's inevitable, as it happens sooner or later.

I'm afraid it's bookstores more than anything else that will suffer. With online selling like Amazon, and directly from the publisher's website, the brick and mortar stores will go the way of the dinosaur.

I would say in about ten to twenty years, the printed book will be close to extinction, too, but I'm betting there will still be a market for them, albeit a very small one.

I think YA and adult will be at 50/50 within five years. Picture book and middle grade will take longer because the audience for those books isn't as likely to have an ereader. Kids in the classroom still go to the school library or select books the teacher has provided in the classroom. If you look in elementary school classrooms, we're not at the 1 computer:1 child ratio yet. With recent education cuts, I can't imagine that multiple ereaders will be added to classrooms anytime soon.

I think of big publishing as having an expiration date 50-75 years from now, when the current generation that is tied to print is no longer. And that print publishing in general will be smaller and more targeted (ie. those non-put-downable books that Mom or Dad read to you when you were too little to read.)

Where will publishers be 5 years from now? That depends on how smart they play the game. I do believe that ePub and eBooks will be much more prevalent, but I believe the quality that comes from publishing houses will (still) far exceed those that come from ePub.

It is so "easy" to enter the ePub market, and it's even become rather alluring with the success of Amanda Hocking, but true lovers of the written word will always demand quality above all. If publishers can find that sweet spot in ePub in regards to marketing and profit to the writers while still maintaining quality, they can and will prevail.

After December 21, 2012, we shall all sit upon the ground and tell sad tales of the death of literature. Perhaps some enterprising soul will market scrolls on vellum where he/she has carefully scratched with a turkey feather dipped in berry juice the story of our downfall.

Or not.

Dateline 2016: Global pleasure readership overall stable at 30%, unchanged since 1990. e-Books enjoy 8% market share of feature-length entertainment channels, e-Novel and creative nonfiction book-length publication 38% of book media market share; e-Newsmedia 62%, e-Digests 54%, other text/visual media, recipes, textbooks, manuals, etc., 73%.

Total number of active English language publishers, 5,000,000; 250,000 paper format with two or more active ISBNs, remainder electronic formats.

High-concept mass market products predominate in the print marketplace. Niche products predominate in the electronic marketplace.

Five years from now unpublished authors will have to put some serious points up on the ebook-board to even have a chance of landing an agent/publisher - if that is even a desire by then. Bookstore shelf space will be so limited that only big ballers will get it.

In five years or less, the new query letter will be your ranking on Amazon, and the agents/publishers will come to you. Trust me, I have a Toy Story 2 Magic 8 Ball that never lies.

On a slightly related note inspired by Maril, why hasn't anyone come out with a waterproof e-reader yet? They have waterproof MP3 players. I'm simply not buying a "book" that I can't take in the bathtub. Get on it, e-reader makers. I bet you'd see a huge spike in sales.

Nathan, I took the other ones down. I don’t usually do this, but I re-wrote that so it made more sense.

Fascinating discussion. I'd love to hear your take on it sometime, Nathan.

My (long) prediction:

a. Very soon, publishers will struggle to find writers. As blockbuster authors jump ship, all authors will migrate toward more access, money and control. They will no longer wish to pay a lifetime commission on editing/marketing services, etc.

b. Publishers’ attempts to hold on to authors will probably be successful for only so long. They can not compete with the freedom and money offered by indie publishing.

c. E-publishers and independent business people will begin to offer editing, marketing, rights and star-maker services for a one stop fee. Agents and print publishers may morph into these services.

d. As bookstores continue to struggle, and print publishers have trouble finding authors, they will probably be bought out by Amazon, Apple etc.

e. I can't predict who will come out on top with e-publishing, too many factors.


f. Reader review sites will flourish. Amazon/Apple, etc. may also set up book tiers based on number of copies sold, or something like that, to help the reader navigate.


g. Author empires will arise, for those authors who sell well. They will hire staff to help them with their books. They may also mentor and/or hire newer authors.


h. Books will become hugely popular, partly due to low pricing, and partly because there is nothing quite like a good book. The author will gain more status.


i. Books, that have traditionally been an elite product, catering to the upper and middle classes, will begin to filter down to the lower classes. New segments of the population may become involved in writing and reading books.


j. Information will explode. With the gate-keeping function of publishing gone, all those controversial books that were silenced will be out on the market. Publishing, although fairly liberal, was still run by the elite, and had a function of keeping some balance with the status quo. With that gone, the impact on the culture should be fascinating.


k. There may be backlash to that, which could take many forms. The form that most worries me is e-publishers exert control. Whether the backlash can halt the process indefinitely - I don’t know, but I doubt it. The internet is so hard to control, and writers may welcome their freedom. The populace may become more empowered, more educated and more open minded as books proliferate.

It could be very exciting times ahead.

I think answer to all these questions is how America’s public school systems react. Books are fun, but they’re definitely used as teaching tools. No school is without them. If teachers and students begin to read eBooks, then we’ll see an overhaul.

Otherwise, I’m guessing those that have a good idea on the demographic and preferences of eBook software and hardware users will struggle the least as the book industry changes

People won't like this, because everyone has this fantasy the big publishers will disappear and small publishers and the self-published will take over the publishing world.

However, I truly believe the big publishers will, without a doubt, devour the pioneers of e-publishing. They will eat them alive. I've already started to see it happen with backlisted print books being released in digital format, all of which are now competeing with smaller e-publishers and those who self-publish. This makes the already stiff competition harder to handle for new authors in digital. And agents will be right there pushing with the big publishers, knocking down as many as they can.

The big publishers already know the market is moving to digital. Sometimes I think it's an inside joke at board meetings. They won't admit it, but they know. And they aren't going to sit back without a fight. And they will move forward and swallow as many of the pioneers as they can.

In five years time, I wouldn't be surprised to see many of the pioneers (small e-publishers of romance, for example) already sold to big publishers, partly because they won't be able to compete and partly because they won't be able to pass on the offers to sell.

It might even resemble what happened to mom and pop drugstores in the US.

Here's what I think the publishing process will look like in one year:

1) Author publishes eNovel in partnership with ePublisher of their choice.
2)Author publishes hardcover with small press for collector and library markets.
3)Author's literary agent handles sales for audio and foreign rights.
4)Author's Hollywood agent handles screenright sales.

Each of these processes will be independent of the others.

In five years, NYC publishing may have caught up enough to bid appropriately for all of these rights themselves, but for now publishing is the new wild, wild west, and it's up to the authors to look after themselves. It is my fervent hope that I have signed my last contract containing eRights with any NYC publisher. They just aren't there yet.

And good for Barry.

I have no idea. I never saw this landscape five years ago. E-readers? Who'd want to read a book on an electronic screen?

I'm not good at prognosticating, but I wouldn't bet against Apple and Amazon. They'll likely control the lion's share of the publishing industry five years from now.

In 2016, corporate publishing should have started to acquire younger management who will ensure they don't miss out on the e-book explosion.

By that time, e-readers will be as common as cellphones for the majority of the buying public. The lure of the reasonably priced book and cheaper pricing for ereaders will suck in the remaining holdouts.

Self-published authors will be getting stronger in numbers, with an association to further the benefits of the self-pubbed. By now, self-published authors are gaining in credibility and acceptance.

Indie bookstores will partner with them and start to feature new local writers, edging away from being mainly an outlet for the big print publishers.

Now, I'll put away the Ouija board. Ahem.

I wonder if this question was posed to the music industry once when CD's were prevalent and music stores still existed in multiple at strip malls. I guess my answer is buried in the text.

(pt. 1 of 2) I read the Konrath blog post all the way through & both had & came away from it with mixed feelings.

There are nuggets of truth in what the two men say, yet their beliefs are almost evangelistic in scope ie., PUBLISHING IS DEAD, PUBLISHING IS CLUELESS, PUBLISHING IS (<<<fill in the blank) Equal parts truth, self-servingness, wishful thinking, arrogance, and ... like I wrote, fill in the blank.)

The problem I have at this point with the authors who've epublished is two fold: the success' tend to write in genre ie., fantasy or action, and are gender exclusionary. Maybe I haven't found the work yet, but there isn't much that appeals to all but (big demographics, for sure) genre readers. People who will read anything in that genre, no matter how bad, or unedited, the manuscript. Which is the second part: so much, (all that I've read in my research) of the self-published writers are either a) mediocre writers whose work is glossed with an anxiety about BEING PUBLISHED (WOW! I did it!) because they were rejected by so many traditional venues, and b) in desperate need of other eyes, be it friends, an editor, a copy editor ... these types, IMO, suffer from the deillusion that everything they write is gold, if only the world could see - when their writing is unprofessional (lazy, poorly conceived, lacking rigor in any number of basic categories people who are being published traditionally tend to hit).

Needless to say, I haven't (yet) stumbled upon a Jonathan Franzen or Mary Gaitskill.

I found myself nodding in agreement w/Hogarth & friend (and wondering, are straight men really this stupid when they get together and drink? was this the patriarchy everyone's been so worried about all these years? & where's Judith Regan when we need her?) was in small observations about the business that rang true:

- that publishers aren't attached to one book, but a business of books ie., volume which is the essence of e-pub'ing -

- ereaders are acutely price sensitive, but those that "hoard" (the 99 cent buyers who want everything just because) shouldn't be determining market value and that we need to find a new, livable price point (something between $3.50 & $8.00)

- people are still going to buy print books: they're as portable (and, curiously, shaped / sized the same as many reading devices), and that convenience of shape and transport maintains their competitive element ...

- in the real world I don't know how many book buyers are obsessing on all this stuff as much as aspirant writers & publishers. Readers are still looking for stories that resonant.

- although Konrath claims there's no overlap of readers/buyers on his blog, honestly I would never have become aware of him were it not for his blogging. Granted, I'm not drawn to his work, but in the bigger sense, if he were more literary (less hybrid Johnny Walker 007 novelization pulp than John Burdett's Bangkok series), I'd probably have read more. Likewise, his drinking buddy: yes, he turned down $500K but I have (and still don't) no idea who he is.

- as business people, these writers seem to be v. engaged in what they're doing yet - yet - it moves the needle further away from good writing, IMO, into this sort of sticky/sleazy realm where writing, and writing an excellent story aren't just an after thought, they're of no thought at all. Seth G. doesn't put himself forth as a "writer" - he's all marketeer - but it's kind of dismaying to think that the future is, somewhat at least, being defined by people not with an eagerness to show humanity itself in their eyes, but only dollar signs.

pt. 2 of 2

- the logic of turning down $500 for (whatever genre book St. Martin's Press wanted to buy) for the long tail absolutely makes sense. And, it's not a brand driven decision, either. (Eiser? Eisler?) could invent himself, whole cloth, right now, without any publishing track record. He will mint more coin, in the long run, and seems to have no problem selling his soul in the process.

- the stand-out comment though was the one about what publishing could do right, when it chose to ie., pushing a book through the right channels, and making those connections. And that the NYTimes, et al had a vested interest in excluding all but the blue chip approved writers (I wish someone would research the stats of every F.S.G. book that gets reviewed and press: good or bad, it seems like they have, to the detriment of other equally deserving work, come to dominate the review sections.)

I write all of this as a recently (traditionally) published writer who's book has been reviewed, and well reviewed, and to see it languishing makes me, at the end of the day, vote for e-publishing. I did everything, jumped through all the hoops, and the house's support has been middling, at best. They've done what they're supposed to (ARC's, press releases, etc.) but the focus and commitment to making my book the best that it could be just isn't there. Which circles back to the "publishing isn't about a book, but books" comment and taking "content creators" (I call myself a writer) for granted. I've kept the faith, but at this point wouldn't think an awful lot about walking away. And I will, I have already laid the ground work for that with a (genre) series. Will it be as good as my first book? possibly .. not. but published under a pseudonym, it will be better than most of what's out there, and generating a LIVABLE WAGE, I'll be able to devote myself to serious writing.

In five or so years, publishing will be a baby again.

Books will be rare and treasured items. Even airport novels will be a coveted share. People may even (gasp) read out loud in groups again.

Most of all, regional authors and live storytellers will be the soothing and calming entertainment that people gather, walk for miles even, to be around.

We'll have powered down. People will be primally pumped and the telepathic connection between peoples and tribes will have upended the internet rendering it obsolete.

We will be living our archetypes.

What comes around goes around, it recycles back and fertilizes what will grow.

Guns and all things violent and poisonous will be buried and gone, i.e. humanity will have learned its cautionary tale. We will grow and eat organic, hunt and gather, and drink from the streams again.

Books may be written on bark or rice paper with organic inks with copies stored in treasure vaults, like museums. People will have developed photographic memories and be able to transmit the books they've read.

Writers will be beloved, but also have to carry water and gather wood as will everyone else. We will learn how to generate needed on-the-spot power and heat in our bellies.

We will be able to breathe underwater and levitate or else we will have made friends with intelligent water-beings and companion birds.

(Do I sound like a writer yet?)

I wouldn't begin to speculate. As for me, I hope books, paper product books, are still around and going strong.

I borrowed a copy of West of Here from the library and enjoy having it around (love the cover art) so much that I kept it over a week after I finished it just because I enjoyed seeing the cover. I don't own an e-reader for just that reason. Not that I may not feel differently in the future. I just can't imagine it.

The publishing houses will either revamp their current model and become significantly smaller and potentially less significant, or they will be obsolete. As writers know, it takes a lot to write a book and receiving such a small percentage of the earnings and less control or say in the look and deliverable of your book is a slap in the face after all the work, dedication, and (yes) sacrifice, the writer puts into their work. Not to mention, the potential of being dropped by your publisher if you don’t add to their bottom line margin is an additional stressor and drawback.

I think there will be other types of business opportunities to grow in this evolution. Today, self-publishing may take a lot of work, but with the new wave of indie publishing, writers will want more time to write than deal with the business side, opening the door for freelance editors, book jacket designers, graphic designers/illustrators and PR folks to do the work. The writer will have more of a choice in how their product looks, when they become available and what they want to write. Writers will have more freedom to switch up genre’s and not have to write what they are contractually obligated to produce.

I think there will be an explosion of books, both good and bad ones, but it’s the same choices we have now. You never know how good a book is going to be until you begin reading it.

I suspect that the process will turn into something like this:

1) Writer finishes book
2) Writer finds agent
3) Agent works with in house editors and polishes book.
4) Agent, author and marketing produce an ebook that *hopefully* becomes very successful.
5) Agent approaches publishing house with option for book deal.

We'll see...

It will look like a blasted wasteland with the sun a burning orb in a blackened sky and hordes of zombie writers staggering across the landscape with Kindles in their hands...

Or it will look like a gleaming city on the hill, a beacon of light and truth and honesty for all to follow...

Or, kind of like it does now, only with maybe one less major publisher, at least one less major bookseller, and a whole hell of a lot more self-published authors.

One other change that I think has to come--publishers move out of NYC because they simply can no longer afford the real estate.

I think the death of the big chain bookstore is coming. I just don't see how they can keep it going because all of those brick and mortar stores and the staff, etc. cost too much money (no profit in it). Then with the death of the bookstores, the publishing industry is going to suffer much like the newspapers have done. I mean newspapers are still around, but in a much more humble capacity.

I predict that editors and authors will be brands, the way producer/directors are known in Hollywood (Brian Grazer/Ron Howard).

Editors will work freelance. Agents will filter authors for editors and take on more of a project management role. For an author to work with a top freelance editor, you'll have to go through an agent. Agents will not only connect authors to the appropriate editor, they'll handle film deals, foreign editions (much as they currently do), manage publicity plans, and find the appropriate cover artist. The agent could work for a flat fee or a cut of future profit.

New and midlist authors will indie e-pub with POD option. Best-selling authors will continue to work with legacy publishers.

The glut of books made available as indie e-pubs will be filtered first by editor/author name recognition. People will learn to avoid unedited (vanity) books.

Voracious readers will determine whether or not an indie e-pub/POD book is a success.

Best-selling indie e-pub/PODs will be picked up by traditional/legacy publishers and made widely available to the masses (people who only read best-sellers, and don't read much in a year).

Bookstores will survive by specializing in a few genres and finding gems for customers: sifting through the masses of sci-fi/romance/whatever genre available from indie pubs worldwide and shelving top picks for their clients in a bricks and mortar store and selling a subscription to their genre-specific e-zine where reviewers customers have come to know and trust recommend/review the best new books within that genre.

Lots of change, but everyone wins.

Barry Eisler is married to an agent so he might have a lot more help and insight in the waters of the self-publishing arena than your average joe author.

Plus, he's a best seller and because of this (more than likely) has some extra cash lying around in case it doesn't work out as planned. Still very brave of him, I think. BUT -- he's also a name author. That's completely different than an unknown. Thanks for sharing this, Nathan. I'll be interested to see how it works out for him.

For adult and YA, I think ebooks will have at least half the fiction market due to ease of purchase, preview and portability. Texts will follow but become e-standard later.

Kids books will be in paper for many, many years to come. For adults, I think only favourite authors and books will win a coveted spot on a physical bookshelf.

I hope my husband is still employed--he works in traditional publishing though he's trying to learn whatever he can about e-books to ensure his survival.

I think it will be harder for writers to break in. I'm already noticing a difference in agents requesting my material--much fewer are requesting partials than a couple of years ago and there's less of a personal touch from agents, too.

Books will gradually disappear as they morph into "content" for Kindles, ipad--esp true for novels--their days are numbered--except for the most popular types of genre fiction and perhaps some high-end literary fiction.

More kids will be deprived of the glorious experience of having picture books read to them as parents stick iphones with "interactive books" in front of them.

People like Barry Eisler will realize their very dumb mistake of doing it themselves...

Many agents will leave the industry.

A few people will realize they actually miss bookstores and perhaps there will be a mini-surge in new independent stores.

Don't major in English--unless you want to work freelance and edit other's people's really crappy novels and self-help books.

One thing I'm wondering is how reader income factors into all this. Are e-readers for the relatively wealthy (who can afford to pay the initial cost of an e-reader), or do those in lower income brackets buy them too, so as to save money in the long run by buying cheaper books? Has anyone heard of any studies on this?

"One thing I'm wondering is how reader income factors into all this. Are e-readers for the relatively wealthy (who can afford to pay the initial cost of an e-reader), or do those in lower income brackets buy them too, so as to save money in the long run by buying cheaper books? Has anyone heard of any studies on this?"

That's an excellent question, and I'm going to answer it this way. There's a TV show on right now called "Shameless." It's about a low income family, struggling to survive. The house is falling apart, they can't pay their bills, the furniture is old and crummy. But there's a huge, expensive flat screen TV in their living room. In other words, the price of an e-reader (Kobo is now about 100.00) isn't going to stop them if they want to read digital books, assuming they have the inclination.

Coming from the "Millennial" generation, you would expect that I prefer E-Books. I actually owned a Kindle for a time, but it sat unused and I gave it to a friend (in his 60s) who really wanted one. I never became comfortable with holding the Kindle, it felt so small and cold as opposed to curling up with a book. Something about turning the pages, a tangible interaction with the story, makes books irreplaceable for me. And despite my generation's obsession with iPods, iPads, iPhones, and anything else in the iClub (I'm obsessed too, no judgements), very few of my friends have converted to E-Books. I would never buy an E-Book for something I want to read over and over again, but I can see how they would be useful for textbooks, magazines, and novels you read just to keep up to date in publishing. If I want a strong connection to the story, I will buy the book in its true form. And I'm not going to "gift" and E-Book... how lame...

Major publishers will be forced to consolidate due to massive losses stemming from consumers rapid adoption of e-readers and the astonishing drop in prices of ebooks to between 99c and $2.99. This will result in heavy layoffs and as someone mentioned before, the relocation of the publishing houses to cheaper digs to places like Sioux Falls SD or Des Moines, IA. Lunch meetings at Arby's anyone?

Authors will band together to form co-ops, guilds and associations within their niche to gain support, marketing help and exposure/discoverability in a sea of ebooks released on a weekly basis. Some of these co-ops will become very popular and (sort of like the Miami Heat in the NBA will gain notoriety when they gain a new kick-ass author to their "team" of ebook authors within the guild)

Agents will need to demonstrate serious social media and web app chops to find ways to help authors rise above the noise. Many will exit the business as the revenue share will be less per author.

Bookstore chains will cease to exist other than boutique and independent shops where you will still be able to find or get help ordering hardcopy books. Print will not die but become much less relevant in relation to "new normal" e-reader consumption patterns by consumers.

Editors and graphic artists will thrive for several years providing self publishing services until new software and automated editing programs arrive that will make complicated formatting a snap. More layoffs and editors, etc will hit the unemployment line. (If you want to really make a killing during the ebook revolution, develop one of these automation programs right now).

The traditional styles and topics will become quaint as much more radical writing styles emerge that elitists will scoff at but the masses will continually devour and create numerous millionaires. (think Hunter S Thompson on steroids). Big name writers will have to work significantly harder as people who have written masterpieces but were passed over by the major publishing houses will seem to come out of nowhere with great books.

The New York Times, Newsweek, Time Magazine,etc will become heavy hitters in non-fiction publishing as their immense wealth of content and writers will allow them to publish astonishingly great collaborative works (this is already in motion). Revenue from these types of non-fiction ebooks will be as much as 10% of their total rev in 2016.

Transmedia and gaming will become integrated with advanced e-readers and authors will will collaborate with many other industries creating new hybrid content and new opportunities for those that can harness the tech.

New genres like scifi-romance and especially variations of erotic will explode as people can anonymously download these types of books that they never would purchase publicly.

Erik Blakkestad
ebookeconomy.com

I think by then we'll have mostly e-books. I think bookstores will be large, coffee-selling gathering spots, and kind of hybridized with libraries. The idea of authors gaining independence and freedom excites me, but the idea of children reading anything anyone puts out, regardless of quality, scares me. I think there will be a number of freelance editors that writers can hire to help produce a work that will gain a standard "stamp of approval," as in: these writers have produced a work in which a reader will be guaranteed good prose and proper grammar. I think with the self-published crap that will flood the marketplace, parents, schools and teachers will want some kind of assurance that their children are reading something worthwhile. I think it will take time to develop a system that provides such a seal of approval, but I do think that's what will happen. Without a seal like that, we may as well forgo the rules of the English language. Not to sound too bleak or anything.

I think, in the future, the book industry will look much like the movie industry. Sundance Film Festival was started by Robert Redford in order to give indie filmmakers a chance to succeed after it became too expensive for them to compete against the major film studios. Sundance never threatened the movie industry. On the contrary, it added to it. The major movie studios now purchase successful Sundance films. In 1995, a group of independent artists felt that Sundance had become too commercial and started the Slamdance Film Festival which runs every year right next to, and at the same time as, the Sundance Film Festival. Slamdance hasn’t hurt the commercial film industry. Steven Soderbergh, Christopher Nolan, Marc Forster and Jared Hess all got their start at Slamdance. Lots of people from the movie industry attend Sundance, and some of them take time to check out Slamdance as well.

I want to thank you again for introducing your blog followers to the traditional, the indie and the self-publishing side of the publishing world, including your recent posts about the 99-cent Kindle books and the tremendous success of Amanda Hocking. After reading your blog, I decided to try the 99-cent Kindle route. Wow, it was one of the best things I’ve ever done with my writing. A couple of days ago, I posted four titles on Amazon Kindle for 99 cents each. Then, last night I went into the Kindle Discussions on Amazon. Within a few hours, a blogger and book reviewer volunteered to buy and review my books, and a few people mentioned putting a "Like" next to my books and tagging them.

There’s palpable excitement over in the Kindle Discussions. Someone there said it feels like a Revolution and the authors are ePioneers. Someone posted a link to an article that describes the excitement as coming from people with brand new Kindles wanting to find gems among the inexpensive indie Kindle books. I feel that way myself – I found some really great books by other authors priced at $2.95, $1.95 and 99 cents.

None of this will threaten the major publishing houses. Most authors would love to have an agent and publishing contracts with the big publishing houses. Readers will continue to purchase expensive books. The excitement over finding 99-cent gems has made people extremely excited over books, which is good for every type of publishing company. That’s very different than a few years ago when books had difficulty competing against movies, TV shows, and video games for consumers’ interest. Back then, publishers worried that people weren’t reading very much anymore.

By the way, did you notice that Amanda Hocking mentioned your blog on her blog today? She has a really interesting post on her blog today about the decisions she’s making about the future publication of her books.

I'd like to say no, but it seems inevitable. I'm a Graphic Designer, so the death of print is always a big funeral for me. It's like LPs. My kids see my collection and although they know who Led Zeppelin is, they're still like "weird. It's so big." What do they know? They better keep their grubby paws off my Pat Bentar album. lol.

LOVE love love your graphic for this post by the way! Fantastic!

Remember when the IBM Selectric was state of the art for writers and most of our research took place in library reference rooms? That's how different publishing will be for writers--and sooner than we think. I'm happy to think that we'll have more writers having their work read--much like it was in the days of pulp and serial magazine stories. Might not all be good, but there were--and will be--some wonderful stories read by people who didn't and don't buy big, expensive books. Vive l'ebooks!

I see these days of self-published authors as being akin to the days of pulp fiction in the 20's through the 40's. That period produced many successful writers, but also produced many works of questionable literary value. There will be a deluge of e-books and other works from every writer who believes they have something to say, but only a small percentage will be successful. The coming years will see successful e-writers being more from those who market their works the best than from those who are the best writers. Hopefully there will be critics who will recognize the works for substance, not just number of sales.

I mean, who knows, really?

What I think, because I'm sort of an optimist:

Though EBooks will take some market share away from paper, I don't think it will be 50% of the current market. The optimist in me thinks that EBooks will expand the pie in general. I am hoping that they will be a gateway, for some, to read, because of the novelty of the device, and an encouragement for others to simply buy more books, both E and paper.

I honestly think that paper is a better way to read a book -- maybe not a text book, or a magazine or a newspaper -- but a better way to read a long narrative. I know not everyone agrees, but I think for most readers, a paper book is a better reading experience.

I put myself in that category. I'd like to get an eReader for certain situations and to buy less expensive books from authors I'm not familiar with. I have a feeling I'd just end up buying more books, period.

Bookstores: I vote for smart indies. I've seen them at work, and I think they can survive and flourish, because of the value they bring to their customers. I do agree that they need to focus on events (authors and book-oriented) and additions (coffee, food, wine) that get people into the store. There's the convenience and price factor of Amazon on the one hand, but I think there's a craving for actual, physical community on the other, and bookstores can provide that.

Publishing: I dunno, quite honestly. I do think you'll see Big Six (or Big Five) publishers picking the creme out of the self-pub pile and offering them deals. As in bookstores, I think there's a place for smart smaller independent publishers with good infrastructure for marketing and distribution.

I agree with other Lisa. I feel that it will be a 50/50 split between established Publishing Companies and e-books. I have a nook, but I love to hold books in my hands. If book stores begin to offer a wide scale of activities, they will survive. I have nine grandchildren 8 years old to 22 years old and they love going to the Deptford N.J. Barnes and Noble on Saturdays.

Something like e-books will take over 85% or more of the market, but I don't think we'll see Kindles and Nooks like we do now.

There are at least 2 generations of new devices ready to come out between now and 2016.

I don't even know if we'll call them e-books by that time.

And I think the biggest thing is not just that it's e-books, but that we will see the disappearance of bookstores and publishers, and the rise of one or two vetting publishers such as Amazon.

There will be a fight to establish creds on Amazon & other sites, and these credentialed reviewers will take the place of publishers in terms of saying whether a book is worth reading.

testing, testing, 1,2,4,

Their is one literary quote that came to my head immediately after reading the whole JA Konrath Blog. It 'tis: "off with their heads!"

And thusly it made me think of Russian Royalty, Czar Nicholas, who was a zealot that bled the people dry but probably didn't deserve to have his head cut off and lose his children. Still, without the czar as Russia's ruler, chaos ruled supreme for centuries.

Which led me to today's upheaval in the Middle East. Ain't much different from the arguments that we are having between the published and the not publisheds.

If you can predict the Middle East, you will be able to predict the how books will look in five years.

And if you are that good you will also be winning the March Madness pool.

The publishing houses will have to consolidate due to new pricing structure realities brought on by the ebook marketplace. Most ebooks will be priced between 99c and $4.99. this will result in massive layoffs and the forced relocation of the industry to less expensive locations.

Thousands of authors who had previously written novels but could never get them published will self publish them as ebooks. Many will will languish in obscurity, some will become recognized as great works. A few will become instant classics.

The New York Times, Newsweek, Time, etc will all be publishing volumes of non-fiction "digital newsbooks" collaboratively created by armies of professional journalists. The first of these are being published now. This will generate a significant additional revenue stream for news organizations.

Many authors will band together to form cooperatives in order to provide quality assurance, marketing synergy and greater visbility/discoverability. This is also just starting to occur now.

Widespread piracy and IP infringement will be a major issue.

Editors and other support staff positions will be in demand initially but advanced artificial intelligence software may emerge to provide easy formatting for indie self-publishers eliminating the need to hire additional support staff to self-publish.

e-readers will usher in a renaissance of the written word. Great authors will achieve cult like, rockstar status (similar to early-mid Stephen King era)

Aggregators will be able to quickly assemble high quality works and put out fascinating collections/sets of radical new writers with different perspectives.

Erik Blakkestad
ebookeconomy.com

I was going to say the publishing industry will look like Madonna in five years, but I might have misunderstood the question.

I think the future is good. Most of the people in publishing will simply be shifting roles to accomodate ebooks.
I think it means good things for authors - but a LOT more sifting for consumers to find things that are read-worthy.

I see a lot of correlations between the music industry and the publishing industry in terms of what happens to the artists after they no longer have representation and there is no industry in place to support them – or new artists.

A lot of published authors will jump ship and self-publish, as well as those who had a couple of books published and didn’t get a new contract. But only formerly established authors who have name recognition on the shelves will be able to make bank. The average indie writer won’t have a snowball’s chance in h*ll for the most part. The only way indie writers can possibly “succeed” will be to churn out penny dreadfuls in great gobs as quickly as they can. After they e-publish 50+ novels, they might start making some change. Write under enough nom de plumes and in enough genres, and one or two might become successful. For these people, the focus will be on quantity, not quality. We might see some indie writers flooding the market with a new book once a week. Ebooks will be treated more like iPhone apps. We'll never really know how many people read them.

The Big Six may still exist, although I do see some mergers. They’ll be smaller, and they’ll have to relocate due to the expense of NYC real estate. By then, they’ll have done their market research and they’ll cater to the market as to produce books that appeal to the widest possible demographic. Said books will be written at an eighth-grade level, which is the mean in America. Basically, we’ll get the Britney Spears and Justin Beibers of books. Literary fiction will wither and … I’m not sure what will happen to it.

Literary agents will become eBook bundlers, acting in the capacity of editors, graphic design procurers and online marketers. I doubt they’ll work on prospect; writers will likely have to pay their money and take their chances. Only agents with JDs will negotiate film rights or anything that involves serious contracts. Like producers, managers and sound engineers who used to pick and choose who they worked with, most agents will take business from wherever they can get it. Agenting might become a night or weekend job for many, as it has for former music industry folks.

The future is NOT bleak!

E-books will expand the book market in general, bringing in lots of new readers - people who after a first jolly experience on their i-pad or kindle will go on to buy paper books for the first time in their lives!

Bookstores will have to become more imaginative to be welcoming places, like Starbucks with coffee to attract clients or organize conferences and local contests to engage the community. And the big chains could give print-on-demand services for all things digital, why not? Indeed, that's where the real competition for printed books might yet come from...

Publishers will stop being so fearful and realize that if they don't try to scrape authors naked, but instead turn them into faithful allies (for example giving them a better deal on e-book royalties and making more of an effort to support book marketing), then their prospects might really turn for the better.

There will be more Amanda Hockings coming into their fold and fewer Barry Eisler walking away from them. But the real challenge are the midlist authors who can make a big buck turning their back list into e-books. Publishers will just have to figure out a way to get into that juicy market - and they won't get into it unless they provide a service of value to the authors, like, say, marketing support and the means to fight off piracy.

Because, let's face it, the biggest danger for the digital revolution in the publishing industry is PIRACY!

Whatever direction it goes, I hope I'm riding along with a big arse grin slapped across my pea-headed face!

In my infinite wisdom... I see a lot of smaller ePublishers popping up (potentially offering PoD back-up). I have seen a few already, accepting submissions for good quality books that fall into this or that qualification but aren't as bound by the 'rules'. Big Publishing is playing very conservative right now, and I think it is creating a window for these. I like the idea because it leaves the 'quality control layer' while still opening a lot more options than there currently are. My sadness is, I don't see how bookstores can survive it.

The biggest changes will be at the retail level. Bookstores will become smaller boutique stores, that specialize in one genre or another, one special interest or another, mirroring the fragmentation and clique-ification of modern culture.

Publishers will operate on a different paradigm, offering real services to the author in exchange for their piece of the cover price.

Publishers will take their job of curation seriously, and will work hard to maintain brand credibility. They will pay more attention to the things people actually buy books for.

Cover prices for ebooks will go down, starting with debut authors ($0.99 will become the standard) and moving to mid-list ($2.99) and eventually to the top of the heap ($4.99). The MSRP might not look like that, but deals will be made that will get prices down to that level for any consumer who wants it.

I think the real problem is that we don't know what other role technology will take as things move along. As much as I love reading, the ART of reading itself is in danger of becoming extinct and moving reading onto devices that have other time killers and Apps isn't necessarily the best way to get more readers out there if all they're doing is playing Sudiko or Scrabble on their e-Readers. As media itself continues to change, the authors that stand to make the most change or impact are those who will be able to take advantage of this new content, whatever form it may take ranging from movie clips in the book to moving illustrations or audio parts. After all, how hard can it be to get a computer to read the book you're reading? Audio books may very well become merged with such texts or may be read by more specialized actors of large name and fame.

I'm new to this game. Just read my first ebook yesterday. Have 1 1/2 memoirs complete...havne't queried a sole. So sorry if all this seems silly, but: I think the publishers need to get creative. Why not have their ebooks ad supported? We hated it on the web initially, and it took time, but now ads on the web are ubiquitous. Make ebooks an interactive experience (especially for the younger generation of readers)...charge a premium for that experience. Why not a subscription model? Get four books a month for $15-$30, depending on the authors. It could generate a steady stream of income to help support the print business. How about bundling ebooks. Buy the Harry Potter of the day and get 3 or four unknown/new authors in the same genre (or genre of your choice) for free. This could be a market research tool...develop some "like" button so they know who to send to print and who to keep on as an eauthor. I think the future is bright, people just have to get out of the box.

Erma Bombeck was #6 on the non-fiction list the week I was born. Talk about being born under a good sign as a humorist. That's something no astronomer can ever take away.

I was going to make some wise remark about the best seller the week I was born bein written in cuneiform on a clay tablet but then decided to actually check and see. Sadly, the only titles I recognized were: fiction - The Miracle of The Bells and non-fiction - The Egg and I. Even more sadly, I haven't read either one.

THE CRYSTAL CAVE by Mary Stewart! How's that for a genre girl with a thing for fantasy?

Thanks for posting this! Apparently some of the writers in my critique group think that all publishers will go away and it will all be self publishing, with no agents involved. I'm sending them the links to prove to them otherwise :P

Also, it looks like Stephen King and Peter Straub's The Talisman was #1 the week I was born.

Fire Starter and Clan of the Cave Bear! It's interesting to see authors, you've just been introduced to (i.e., Ken Follett), have been successfully working for quite some time. Sure, you can read the copyright page, but seeing the bestseller list has more impact. Thanks for the link!

So the book that topped the bestseller list the day I was born was:

"The Agony and the Ecstasy."

How apt. And that was just the first day.

So, look at all these goodies! Thanks, Nathan. You've out-done yourself from out-doing yourself all the previous times you out-did yourself! I'll have loads of fun browsing the links this weekend.

Be back to comment on the links when I've read them!

Watership Down! I'm good with that.

Jonathan Livingston Seagull. And I remember looking at the cover of that book on my parent's shelves as a child. Thanks for the link

The Talisman by Stephen King and Peter Straub.

How to channel their long-term success?

Was I born under an unlucky star?
#1 - SHIP OF FOOLS by Katherine Anne Porter.

#13 - TO KILL A MOCKINGBIRD by Harper Lee

TKAM ranks with OF MICE AND MEN (IMHO) but it was #13.

I've never read SHIP OF FOOLS which is unfortunate because I taught a course on the roots of the Holocaust for two years. (If anyone needs me I'll be at the library)

Didn't see any bestsellers I'd want to read on my birth week, and never heard of half of the authors. It was a dull time, IMO.

Baby elephant videos? Too cute.

Haven't yet checked out all the links, but plan to do so over the weekend. It seems everyone in publishing has a prediction as to how it will evolve. Only time will tell us who had it right.

So much chatter happening in the ether over eBooks, Google, and free downloads. What a week!
Edge of Your Seat Romance

Interesting to me that 6 out of 10 authors on "my" bestseller list are still big names more than thirty years later. Maybe publishing isn't as ephemeral as all that?

I'm glad you mentioned "Page Critique Friday" because it's one of the features that drew me to the forum. I joined right after T'Giving so I haven't had the chance to participate yet and I'm looking forward to it.

I can't speak for everyone, but I'd be willing to wager that most (if not all) of us really appreciate the time you do take to help us sharpen our skills and indulge in the give and take of the critique/discussion process.

I LOVED looking up books from the year I was born! Awesome!!!! Thanks for the link soup, it's always a great way to start the weekend. (And thank you for the kind words to me earlier this week.) XOXO

Aw man - thanks for the baby elephant! :) e

That's a real nice perspective on history and a person's own life experiences, to see the NYTms best-sellers from when we were born: thanks! I'd have never thought to look that up, but I often want to put things in perspective by thinking, "Where was I, then, & what was I doing?" when a particular time period is mentioned. (Jackie Kennedy went into publishing in 1975 -- I was high school sophomore...)

best sellers on my birthday included "The Affluent Society" by John Kenneth Galbraith; "Please Don't Eat The Daisies" by Jean Kerr (that was popular all through my growing-up years, it was in school library, & on people's bookshelves -- "Kids Say The Darndest Things!" by Art Linkletter; "Only In America" by Harry Lewis Golden (which sounds like something I'd want to read, will look it up); as well as "Around The World With Auntie Mame" by Patrick Dennis -- !

Also thanks for elephant / beach -- so funny and sweet !!

My comments come in as "Anonymous" -- sorry...that was me.

OK, I can't make it work, sorry

Do you know of any good professional editing services that don't charge a ridiculous amount of money?

Great week wrap-up, Nathan! The e-book era -- and how it will affect authors, agents & pub houses--is starting out a (the?) hot topic of 2011. As always your recent posts lend some thoughtful insight on the blogs/posts/perspectives swirling around the web on this topic. Marys Kole's take was great, as was Kristin Nelson's post from last week, and many others. I didn't comment yesterday, but as far as agents go, I think Darwin said it best when he commented (and I'm paraphrasing here): "It's not the strongest of the species that will survive but the ones most adaptable to change."

Same for agents. I think they help authors in countless ways, not simply getting the book into the hands of a publishing house. Agents help authors get a book into the hands of readers, and that's what makes them such fantastic-- and much needed -- author advocates.

Happy writing, Nathan. And thanks for the elephant.

The BibliOZ link was my favorite. besides being fun, it's an awesome research tool if you're writing about an earlier era.
Note: the site employs British dating. So put the month of your birth before the year of your birth

That Being said, The Robe topped the best seller list and I actually have read it. A Tre Grows in Brookly was number 4

Great info to reference in this post. The Executioner's Song and The Bourne Identity were bestseller's in my b-day week. A lot to live up to!

Darn, I was hoping to comment on all the links, but I've been so overloaded with papers I haven't even read them all yet!

The ones I did read were so interesting - thank you, Nathan - I'd be in the dark ages of information without your Friday in Books.

I did watch the video, and that is the cutest thing I've ever seen. I want a baby elephant, I want one, I do, they are so cute, and I want one NOW.

On the other hand, I do NOT want an adult elephant.

Something to think about.

Okay, that's my wisdom for the weekend. Hope everyone had a good one - and I'm looking forward to lots of interesting discussions in the next week!

Is it bad that on the week I was born I know only one of the authors in the list? Danielle Steel whose work I have never read? It is quite sad that some amazing sign like "how to be a millionaire" wasn't number one. Dang.

P.S the baby elephant was adorable.

There's a small but increasing band of authors, turned down by agents, who have successfully self-published.

We are demonstrating that actually, an agent isn't essential. Or a publisher either. And you know, making your own decisions isn't that scary, and it's certainly empowering.

Roll on the revolution :o)

Anony, as a former small business owner who "did it all" myself - twitter, blogging, production, marketing, design, pr, I think you underestimate the value of having someone in your corner. Writing is a business, and there are many things we are responsible for accomplishing, so, word to the wise, delegate what you can. It really does not benefit your writing to not have an agent. Sure, you can spend all your time on self-promotion, but I'd rather spend it on my craft.

@Anony: You are forgetting the whole "gatekeeping" aspect of an agent's job. It's an important role, and one I don't see going away. Besides, agents also often provide invaluable editorial service for their clients, and help make a manuscript publish-ready before submitting to an editor. They also know which editors to submit too, which is important. I can read a blog and say hi to someone on twitter, but that's not the same thing as going out with the person, having a drink, and saying, "Oh hey, here's this manuscript I rep."

Sure, there may be more avenues to market, and more avenues to publishers directly, but people are people, and they'll still be looking for ways to fight the slush. Agents are, and I think always will be, a way to do that.

Fascinating article. Thanks, Nathan. You're dead on target about the standardization of terms, that makes total sense.

My predictions: In a way, I believe agenting will survive, but it won't be called agenting, and it will be optional.

For awhile, agenting will continue simply because authors are used to them, are used to thinking that they need them and because it is scary to go it alone without guidance.

Over time, though, e-publishers will begin to offer the same services. If an author wants certain things, like subsidary rights representation, marketing guidance or editing, they will either offer that up-front or as a part of an additional service.

The smart literary agencies will morph into one of these e-publishing agencies and take their current client load with them.

The smart agents wihtout agencies will redefine themselves as 'career builders'. They will be competing with e-publishers who offer the same service. So, they may become a luxury item hired (not by blockbuster authors per se) but by those who have the money. Hiring an agent, with all of their experience and saavy will be attractive to those who can afford it.

So, that's what I think. Could be wrong, of course, but those are my predictions, for what it's worth.

Sometimes, it's hard to remember the business aspect of this biz, whe you're so focused on the creative.

When I had an agent (single tear), and Nathan might not feel the same having worked in the business, one of the things I was so thankful for was how connected my agent was. Relationships are vital to doing good business, and building them takes time and energy. Sometimes who you know can be a benefit. And, for an author, wouldn't that time and energy to write, anyway?

While a homogenization of terms might cement the 'how' of a business deal, having an agent can help you negotiate the 'who,' 'when,' and if he or she is a participating part of your editing process, the 'what.' For these reasons, I can't ever imagine trying to navigate this biz without an agent.

Picking up on Reena's good comment, I think I see the lifespan of publishers shortening faster than that of agents, Nathan. This is because an agent's role is morphing into something that includes vehicle design, not just content. The agent already is doing the work of acquiring editors, often of publicity departments, and is advising and negotiating pathways to distribution, more and more of which lie outside traditional routes.

While offshore and film rights negotiations, of course, may remain closer to current patterns, the the future of smart agenting lies in the transmedia efforts being tracked by Digital Book World's Guy LeCharles Gonzalez ( http://www.digitalbookworld.com ), by Jane Friedman ( http://blog.writersdigest.com/norules/ ) and by rich-media developmental specialists like Dan Blank of We Grow Media ( http://www.wegrowmedia.com ).

In the same way that authors are hustling to embrace and capitalize on the potentials of the e-phenomena, a clever agent can become, him- or herself, an enabling mentor and impresario, guiding authors to recast and envision projects to achieve their transmedial possibilities.

As Jimmy Cramer ( http://www.cnbc.com/id/15838459 ) loves to say, there's always a bull market somewhere. An agent's job is rapidly becoming that of the experienced scout who can get to the top of the hill, see where the new markets are rising, and signal back down to her or his authors the best concepts, techniques, and evocations of storytelling to deploy.

It's definitely changing but I agree with you, agents will always play a role. Even if all the major houses start PODing their books and e-publishing, someone still has to negotiate the other rights. I think that even a self-publisher would love to have an agent shopping their work for licensing.

A big question that I have is what happens now? Are publishers going to try to keep erights in perpetuity? And will they do the same to the pub rights if all houses start PODing? What are the potential problems with signing over these rights in perpetuity?

Agents are rather important, not just in selling a book to a publisher. But there are only so many film options to be negotiated which leaves a large hole where the agent's income used to be. Will they need to branch out into more areas like actively trying to make larger merch deals? Will expanding licensing effectively move up the priority list?

I "really truly" think you are right. In the future the best "agents" may be the best editors and e-marketers. I would be more than willing to share my (currently non-existent) earnings with a crackerjack editor. Especially one who was vested in "our" product.

What percentage of published books in the US get international sales and film rights sold? Is it more than 1%?

I don't think I'd want to do without an agent.

As some people have said (not just here), "Whatever an agent does, I can do in the brave new world! I can tweet, blog, and update FB with the best agents around!" Er, yes, and maybe so can I. But I don't want to do all that. The most valuable commodity I've got access to is time: time to write, time to read, time to belong to a family and a circle of friends.

Translation: damn right I want an agent.

Standardized terms? I don't know. To me, this has the feel of other "book publishing is just like music publishing!" analogies. I mean, maybe such terms are becoming a de facto standard, in which case que sera, sera. But I don't get why it makes sense to standardize, even for unknown authors. Publishers tell us the all-digital future won't necessarily mean cheaper books, because of all the, um, analog costs (people, especially). Unless the analog costs suddenly get into lockstep for every book (which I really really cannot see happening), why should the contracts standardize?

WHo knew that something as benign-sounding term as "standardization of terms" can hold so much in its hands. It is not easy to figure out what all these mean objectively. Is it just part of the general doom-and-gloom-prediction-of-publishing,an attitude I know you don't subscribe to. Yet.

So much unknown. Keep us posted, Nathan

It does sound like, as many people have already said, that agents will still have an important role to play in the future. It's just that the width, depth and breadth of that role will need to be redefined and realigned with the way industry and environmental need evolves.

But isn't this what happens to all/most roles in all organizations over time? A business need or direction changes, so the organization and its people have to change to accommodate the new direction and deliver the new/refined business outcomes. Sometimes it's a shift in job focus, other times it's developing new capabilities, and other times again it's about integrating technology into the mix. Or a combination of all of the above.

Whatever the case, it seems like a natural thing that as the nature of publishing and technology shifts, so should the roles of the people working within it.

Perhaps the trick is not to be scared by it, but, as Nathan seems to be suggesting, redefining one's place within it to remain a viable service provider and valued/key player in the mix.

Maybe agents might adopt a consultancy model, and offer modularized products within an overall suite of services. It would make sense, and caters for people at any stage of the process. The more I think about it, the more it seems that they could actually draw in wider income streams by offering services that were previously part of the 15% in small modular packages.

There is also, of course, the effect of the 'theory is always different to practice' experience. Who knows what the total result of all these changes will be in one, three, five years time? There will always be unexpected 'side effects' or new avenues arising out of a new process that weren't anticipated or were anticipated to go in a different direction. Opportunities for agents could arise out of these unforseen challenges/changes.

Regardless, I wish all agents well. It seems like such a tough industry to be part of, and they are facing challenges on every side of this equation.

In technology, the pat phrase is that as old jobs become outdated, new ones are created. Not necessarily true. But some positions will have to reinvent themselves to work around new paradigms.

I'd prefer an agent to work with, and would prefer that they aren't boxed in by too many restrictions. A lot of jobs are morphing these days, usually to the detriment of the person doing the work.

I can see the Robot Revolution coming. (Perhaps a R2D2-Nathan-vintage agent model? Kind of a clone of the old agent Nathan.)

I agree with what is being said about relationships. An agent has connections to editors that I wouldn't have, no matter how many times I Google. It's the relationship and guidance that also matters.

Perhaps, but many careers are changing, especially as digital technologies become more prevalent. It's happening like mad in libraries. As for agents, they will still be needed/desired for their connections to editors, as many authors will still want to get signed by big publishers for the potential marketing opportunities and brand recognition, if nothing else. They'll still be desired for editorial suggestions to make books strong and marketable before they are presented to editors at publishing houses. And like Jennifer Jackson said in the first comment, agents may adopt more duties of publicists. (On a literary festival I staff, we contact some authors directly, and for the rest, there seems to be an equal split between having the agent or publicist as the contact person.)

E-books are eating a chunk of the market, but it's still not clear anything about e-books renders paper books obsolete.

However, let's assume, for the sake of argument, that e-books take enough market share to so it is no longer profitable for bookstores to exist. In that case, publishers as we currently understand them also stop existing.

A big part of their role is to produce the objects, sell them into the stores, deliver them, and take them back if they don't sell. If none of those things matter anymore, all they are is acquisitions, marketing and editorial, and that sparks a huge transformation in their business. In a world without distribution, publishers can no longer justify the share of the cover price they currently command. And in a world where sales contacts with accounts are no longer relevant, smaller operations can compete with big publishers.

What we'll see in publishing is probably what I think we're seeing in music; big studios with extensive sales and distribution operations were replaced with smaller labels fronted by visible producers who have personal "brands" that unknowns want to be affiliated with.

Since many agents are well-connected and their tastes are trusted, and since they are capable of being editors, the agents may cut-out or replace the publishers, rather than vice-versa.

However, I still think e-book sales are likely to plateau, because I don't think the experience of reading a book is improved at all by the devices.

@Jes who said, As some people have said (not just here), "Whatever an agent does, I can do in the brave new world! I can tweet, blog, and update FB with the best agents around!" Er, yes, and maybe so can I. But I don't want to do all that.

Regardless of having an agent or not, the author still takes on quite a bit of responsibility when it comes to marketing and social-networking. Yes, your agent might tweet once or twice something new about your work, but the tough job of marketing lands in the plate of most author.

Publishing companies have really cut back on marketing campaigns and reserve the funds they do have for the big names. So be prepared... you might find yourself taking on a hat other than just writer if you want your works to succeed in the market place. :)

Yep. You are correct. A similar situation occurred with financial industry. Before my time mutual funds charged a flat fee, period and it was high, something like 8% off the git-go. Then it was regulated down and then the discounter mutual funds like Fidelity got into the act driving fees down. Then the brokerage firms and their financial consultants were challenged with the rise of the brokerage discounters like Charles Schwabb, etc. and the demise of the stock broker was loudly predicted. We are still around. Though the industry has adapted. It is what will transpire with literary agents. They won't go away, but they will have to offer 'value added' services to justify their existence and fees. It is the way of the world.

I think *if* publishers were to become obsolete because of the lack of bookstores, it would only be in the sense that they downsized significantly. I'm already envisioning POD machines all over the place, like DVD rental machines right on the sidewalks of gas stations and next to the soda machines at the malls. Books through brightly lit, plexiglas veneered vending machines with a color touchscreen just waiting to be poked by germy fingers. Maybe even a POD machine that will actually print the darn book right then and there (true print on demand). That might be stretching it but who knows what technology will bring. But there will always be a market for print books, even if it shrinks.

The Anonymous stockbroker above gives a great analogy. Thanks. That really makes sense.

Having sold two books without an agent, I know I do NOT want to do that again. I've learned a lot about the business since, but I still want a pro in my corner, just the way I want a financial advisor to guide me through the investment maze.

Great post, Nathan. I've been arguing the price/cost comparisons of e-books and hardcovers all day on FB. The question of agents throws another wrench in the gears, especially when considering self-pub.

So many transitions and questions in the e-book era!

I actually wrote a blog on the changing roles of literary agents in the age of e-books several months ago. All in all, I don't see them becoming obsolete, but they will need to adapt.

As a to-be published author, my perception of the role of literary agents has been that they traditionally handled the ins and outs of everything from signing contracts to setting up tours to scheduling interviews.

Now, with social media as the industrial revolution of the 21st century, that adds a whole new monster. I see the author as needing to take on a more direct role in the process and the agent taking on more of the role of a consultant. That doesn't mean the agent won't help in the process of signing contracts, etc. I believe it means the agent and author will find themselves collaborating with each other more, rather than the agent holding the author's hand. At least for newer authors.


Here's that link:

http://seobridges.com/2010/06/will-e-publishing-lead-to-a-literary-mine-field/


Nathan, I'd love your thoughts if you have a moment.


Thanks,

Erick

I have three published ebooks and there are foreign rights. My publisher has been approached by other countries wanting to publish there e books. (But gotta tell you- no one I know is making a aliving off ebooks)
I don't have a agent but in my mind, to compete properly in the area of bound boond, it is a necessary thing. Now that I have product to offer,I am going to start looking. I come from the acting field. Without an agent on the film side, you have no access to any kind of roles.

Yup, it's the haves vs. the have nots model extended to every possible type of business that exists in the U.S., including publishing. If you get really, really successful and make a lot of money for the publishing company, then you're a have and the company will pay you even more to keep you. If you're a midlist author, you're not that valuable as a commodity and you can just suck it up and be thankful for your 30%. The positive side of self-publishing on the Internet is that, if you don't mind not making money for a while and you want to speak out independently in the way that The Huffington Post does for Internet news, you now have a way to do that. The same goes for books - if you have a meaningful book that the big corporation publishers aren't interested in publishing, you can publish and market it yourself.

One caveat is that big distributors will censor your book and refuse to sell it if it might lower their profits, e.g. Amazon withdrew an ebook that explained how to manipulate Amazon sales rankings. Oh, the irony.

Stephen Duncan, what do you mean, you had an agent? Hope you don't mind me asking.

Any time you have individuals dealing with large businesses, there is a market for those individuals to have professional representatives--representatives who know the business and can act as the individual's advocate. Call them agents, managers, whatever. Agents might become less necessary if every contract became standard and stayed that way, but inevitably, if the big ebook publishers got that kind of power, they would then almost certainly change their standard contract to try to grab more and more rights. And then, somebody new would come in to offer authors a better deal, and there goes the standard.

Ebook publishing is very new. Right now it's dominated by a few players. Those will not necessarily be the same players who dominate the market in ten or fifteen years. Everyone standardizes terms--until they don't. What's to stop a brash young startup from deciding they'll deviate from the 70-30 split by just 5%, to entice more authors? Or to tweak any of the other "standard" terms to undercut the giants of the moment? Or maybe switch to a work-for-hire/book-packaging model, as is already the trend in some places?

Big companies rise and fall. Industries standardize, monopolies form--and then they fall apart. Eventually, someone ALWAYS challenges the alpha company.

All of the above also assumes that ebooks completely replace paper books, which certainly may happen. But at the moment, ebooks are still a small part of the book market, despite all the hype. If ebooks do not replace print but instead become just another market segment, that would further ensure the relevance of agents.

Anony @ 12:35: I was repped by WME, but now I'm not. My former agent decided to focus on celeb memoir since the fiction market is down. Thus, now I am without representation. It was a good business decision on his part, so no hard feelings.

Per my earlier comment from this morning, please check out this incisive new post from one of the horses' mouths, agent Mary Kole in Andrea Brown's shop, just posted on Digital Book World by Guy LeCharles Gonzalez.

Kole says, "I’ll argue that agents should start treating their clients’ business like a tech start-up."

It's a good read at DigitalBookWorld.com: The Agent’s Role in Today’s Digital Book World

http://www.digitalbookworld.com/2011/the-agents-role-in-todays-digital-book-world/#ixzz1AwybSkkQ

Thanks again for a good discussion, everyone. Nice work, Mary.

I don't see a set standardized agent commission or author royalty in the sweep of history, recent or past.

At one time, agent commission was close to a biblical tithe, ten percent and open to negotiation. Some agents today are asking for and getting up to thirty percent.

A blockbuster bestselling author and his or her agent can ask for and get an escalating tier of royalties based on milestones, based on economy of scale benchmarks. After any advance payoff, say, ten-thousand copy sales, ten percent of sales revenue accounted against full advance payoff, then eleven percent up to fifty thousand copy sales, twelve percent up to one hundred thousand copy sales, and so on into the millions.

I'm quite sure a similar revenue stream for digital publication will emerge. After costs and built in profit margins are met, there's no reason besides apathy and greed to not share higher profits with authors and their agents.

Stephen Duncan - Celeb memoir? Ugh. Glad you and your agent parted on positive terms with no hard feelings, though. Good luck with your writing!

We all need water, light, heat — which is why there are reservoir musterers and pumpers, sparky guys and beings of flame rather than fountains from eyeballs, luminous noses and moral disinclinations to incinerate family mebers.

Ditto agents for artistes.

If you're a multitaskin' artiste/thrusterforther of your own talents, then fine.

But I've not got time for that shit.

On the assumption that I've got something to say, I'll take a hard-to-catch fifteen effing per cent? agent any day over having precious writing time morphed into admin.

Technology, models, standards etc will change, but unless we suddenly evolve temporal shifting fins or suckers, 24 hours in a day it remains.

I WRITE, YOU AGENT seems like a good deal from my side of the fence, even if my demands smack of unrequited megalomania.

So, I agree — agents aren't going away, but if they try to stay put, they just might.

I appreciate your post - it's thoughtful, certainly - but I respectfully disagree. You've almost reduced the agent solely to the contract: it's a vibrant moment, but one bookended by so many other factors: submission, revision, managing editor relationships, the publicist, budgets for travel / appearances - which can appear at the last minute - even generating industry interest in a new writer. He has contacts and relationships I don't, and is able to massage a whole network of people that are beyond my keen. And, oh, yes, he does an excellent job of keeping my inflatable ego right sized.

There's also the basic fact that my agent's job is being an agent: he is doing something full-time that I cannot, realistically. It's been interesting seeing what services he's revealed in the publication process, too, a skill that I was completely unaware of.

In my experience, my agent's attention to the contract was a small part of what he's done for me. I can't help but wonder, too, if the 70/30 split you refer to is an element that might become up for negotiation. Not all e-readers are created equal and, clearly, the 9.99 price point isn't a sustainable number, nor as universal as people believe. Lastly, your post rests on the belief that print will become extinct when indicators point to a more complex ecology. Students, for example, are apparently NOT embracing e-texts.

anon-

A couple of different ways of looking at the college e-book study. On the one hand you could say, students still prefer print over e-books. On the other hand, students prefer e-books at a rate that exceeds the general public.

@anon and @Nathan

I know a college student who specifically bought her iPad for college (she takes classes online too). She initially struggled with the e-textbooks, but now has fully embraced it.

Thanks for another insightful post, Nathan. I appreciate that you are still weighing in on the publishing world.

As a student, I'd like to weigh in on the student e-book debate.

I think e-books will rapidly gain favor with students over the next couple of years.

E-books are extremely new for students and there is always resistance to the new - until the current set of students is replaced by a new set who are more used to e-books......and really like the idea of not having to cart around fifty 500lb books to each class and every time they want to study.

I spent an hour in Starbucks yesterday reading my textbook on my Kindle app on my I-phone - which I took out of my pocket, held lightly in my hand until I was done, and popped back into my pocket after I checked my e-mail and other things (including Nathan's blog) on my I-phone.

I have four textbooks on my I-phone which were downloaded within seconds and cheaper than the hardcover.

Guess who told me my textbooks were available on e-book? My professor. She announced it in class and recommended the whole class get the e-book versions.

my first novel is coming out in three weeks and besides the contract and the foreign rights, my agent is my team. she is the one who helps make what i most want to happen, happen. she is the first person i go to for advice about everything from the plot line of my next book to the publicity for this book. i would feel so at sea without her.

as far as i can tell publishing is a jump in at the deep end sort of process. it has been wonderful but also an incredibly steep learning curve and it would be utterly impossible without my agent!

priya parmar

Mr. Former Agent Man, or, should I call you, Number 6?

I think you're absolutely right, again.

Here's why: at the turn of the last century, agents were not, as we know, that big a deal. You didn't have an agent, you didn't need an agent. What you did need, and tried to get, was an editor--an employee of a publishing "house"--to read and like your stuff.

With Amazon, the deal is actually closer to 60/40 for my novels, rather than 70/30, published by CreateSpace. Because the retail price of my book covers their cost, and my royalties, since it's a print-on-demand novel. And on Kindle, we're talking now 30/70, in my favor.

I told an acquaintance when I published my first novel what my royalties amounted to percentage-wise. He'd been in the legal division of a publisher I won't name, but it's a big one. He looked at me in awe, and said: "that's better than what you'd get from my old employer."

I pay no agent. My royalties are all mine. I don't split them with anyone. And I'm not looking to get rich. I just would like people to read my books.

Now, I'm also not paid an advance on royalties. I also don't have to pay back an advance on royalties if my books don't earn enough to cover the advance.

My point is, like publishers, I think agents have been largely taken by surprise by the popularity--and ease--of print-on-demand and self-publishing, as well as ebooks, of the current era.

They argue it taints the rarified air. Though more and more publishers are asking their writers to actually do much of their own marketing.

I don't have a publicity machine. I could pay someone for that. I don't have subsidiary rights--I could pay someone to handle that, if it came to it (intellectual property lawyers often charge a one-time fee for such negotiations, by the way). But I don't have to pay anyone I don't want or really need to. The risk of sales or lack thereof is entirely mine, no one else's. Much like in any other art (using painting as a similar example).

So. We went from having an editor acquire a writer's work for a publisher, to an editor being lobbied by an agent to look at a writer's work, to agents only willing to first consider a one or few-line query before even spending time looking at a writer's work, to publishers willing to put out a writer's work to let the readers' decide, to publshers willing to pay unknown writers 70% royalties.

Only one reason to have an agent now--to get your book in front of a major "traditional" publisher, who then cranks up the publicity machine, to generate the sales, to pay the publisher, and the agent, and the writer for...who's risk?

Sure. I'd love another agent. Especially one that could find a publisher that would pay to distribute and market my work much more widely. Heck. I'd even be willing to let them take 15% domestic sales, 20% foreign sales (a model that has existed, by the way, since my first agent took me on in 1979).

I said it before, I'll say it again: you should have stayed in the business. You could have been my agent.

What I mean by that is, the agent of tomorrow better be a heck of a lot more active, a heck of a lot more concerned with making everyone some money, and even be open to and push risky writers, because eventually the publishers will stop paying outrageous advances on unknown quantities only to be burned when their works of devestating literary genious don't generate revenue to cover everyone.

And then the publisher's will go back to saying, "we'll decide" who to publish, or better, "we'll publish anyone as long as it doesn't cost us much and it generates revenue."

I thought this was interesting as it was written in 2008.

E-publishing and the agent: Why U.K. novelist Richard Herley thinks smart literary agents will fare well

http://bit.ly/edSuso

I have read that agents and even editors that write usually obtain agents.

I wasn't sure I beleived it until now.

Thanks for all the useful info!

And please keep blogging!

I truly hope agents don't disappear - not that I have one, yet. The daunting idea of being business-woman as well as writer (though I have a hell of a lot more experience on the business side than the writer side) seems overwhelming. Multi-tasking is hard when you are driven relentlessly by your muse :)

Excellent post Nathan. Well written as usual, but also an interesting point.

I will still want an agent no matter what happens to negotiation. Honestly, and I have no idea how wise this is, I don't really care about money. Sure, it's nice, but that's not why I write or want to be published. The main reason I want an agent is because I feel that a good one will make my writing, and my writing career, the best it can possibly be.

Actually, I think that in the coming era the biggest authors will just self-publish--get rid of the publisher and the agent and take a bigger share of the profits.

Literary agents are like unattractive women on military bases, they are in high demand because there are so very FEW of them and they know this and as a result many tend to be a tad arrogant. Are they essential? Yes, but to the unpublished author they appear less the advocate and more the obstacle. It's doubtful that the publishing game will ever evolve to the point where the agent is not needed, but considering that there was once a point when one co uld send a manuscript DIRECTLY to publishers and fwe people HAD agents, agents might want to prepare themselves for a shift in the industry. We live in a nation where fewer people read and eventually those of us who read (and write) will become such a FRIGHTFULLY small minority that we won't be catered to at all.

Actually, one more quick comment about students and e-books.

The impact of e-books on University Libraries should be a major change.

No more: "There's only one copy and someone checked that out."

The long term impact of Universities potentially having unlimited copies of books and textbooks available to students should be very interesting in terms of the impact on the textbook industry and the politics that stem from that.

Having just writing a very satirical look at agents and publishers and why I went epublishing on my blog. I must admit that your arguement does have some strong points. However as you know they are not valid in all cases and everywhere. In the Antipodes distance is a crippling factor. It appears (at least here)that you can only get published if you are indeed already famous. In fact one very successful Aussie writer even had to setup his own publishing company to get his books out.

That "predictions for 2011" article by Mark Coker is veeery intriguing. Not sure I can fully get behind every point, but it'll be interesting to see how his predictions shake out. Oh, and read the comments section on that article too -- a good debate is going on.

I'm excited to look into a few of the books on the Civil War list. One of my most vivid memories is of being made to climb Little Round Top because I was part of the "Confederacy" during fifth grade camp. There is nothing little about Little Round Top's sheer rock surfaces. It surprises me to this day that anyone survived that attack.

Still the Civil War gave us some interesting real life characters! :)

That Motrola Xoom seems very good. Thanks for the video, Nathan. The dual touchscreen also seems interesting which is presented after this video. But it's virtual keyboard maybe not the best idea.

Thanks for the mention, Nathan! Nice round-up, too. I'd missed a few of your hattips. Also? You work for CNET? I love CNET.

@Jayme Stryker who said "Still the Civil War gave us some interesting real life characters!"

My favorite is Gen. Dan Sickles who, when he had to have his leg amputated, gave it a full military funeral.

Good list of links! Civil War books = brain candy.

Did you hear about Key Porter Books? It looks like they're done; sad news for the Canadian publishing industry. More here: http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/TopStories/20110107/key-porter-books-out-of-business-110106/

I was interested in the "best comment" and the Tablet winner. The Motorola looks great. I love the ipad as a reader tool and am wondering if the Motorola will have the same features, (ie taking the reader to a dictionary if the reader wishes to look up a word.) As an author, I have a preference for the pad over Kindle since it is a better medium for children's picture books. They work beautifully with apps such as BeThereForBedtime http://www.betherebedtimestories.com/

Anthony Bourdain is a natural at writing pithy entertaining books, and he offers humorous commentary regarding society on occasion. But I can't understand why someone would ask him about blogging. (??)

It will be interesting to see how the Civil War sesquicentennial pans out. Civil war is never a happy memory, and the American one is no exception. Honour those who died, rejoice in those who were freed, but war itself sucks.

I dislike Mondays, but a Friday post by Nathan B. makes it a little better.

The CNES tablet explosion is one of those entirely predictable things that still takes you by surprise. Sort of like a good plot twist! ;)

Bruce Sterling was missing the point. Badly, in my opinion Glenn Greenwald in Salon does a much better job: http://www.salon.com/news/opinion/glenn_greenwald/2010/12/24/wikileaks

To wit: US forces killing Reuters journalists and US helicopters gunning down Iraqi civilians; logs of unlisted civilian deaths; US govt working to kill the Bush torture probe, and pressuring Germany not to prosecute CIA officials for torture; how the US underreports civilian deaths in Afghanistan, Taliban attacks in Afghanistan, and how Nato commanders fear that Pakistan and Iraq are fueling the insurgency; the US role in a Honduran coup -- in 2009.

The issue is not the wikileaks organization, as they're merely providing a bit of back-channel intelligence. The larger issue is transparency.

If our government is indeed of, by and for the people, the people have a right to know what its government is doing, and what it's trying to keep secret.

I hope you get your share of sample products from your cool new job! Thanks for links! Have a great day.

Monday's my toughest day in terms of my schedule, but I'll enjoy reading through the links during my breaks. They look really interesting. I have a few quick thoughts that I'll share.

I did read the comment of the week, and I found that interesting as well. I'd like to discuss it more. It's true that the individual is very important for free thinking. But the group is also important - in other ways. Be really interesting to discuss the impact of both within the internet sphere on our society.

I think it's sad that Borders is struggling, and frankly wonder why any publisher would pull their support. I'm sure I don't know the whole story, though.

Finally, your argument, Nathan, that either the guy from Mashable or the guy from Smashwords is right - well, I find that argument to be highly compelling. You've pursuaded me; I find myself in complete agreement.

:)

Thanks so much for everything you do here, Nathan!

JohnO, I have to respectfully disagree. Should the government be torturing people behind our backs? No. But what do they do with terrorists who have information that they would rather die than hand over?

Should the government be underreporting deaths in war zones? Not in the long term, but in the moment, possibly. I think we need to bear in mind that if American citizens can access the information, so can the people we're fighting against. Do you really want your enemy in a war to know exactly how many people your side has killed, exactly how many deaths you have suffered, and exactly what you're planning next? I'm not a war analyst, nor have I ever served, but my guess is, probably not.

These are very thorny, very complicated issues. The average American will never, ever have to face these issues personally, and it is neither the job nor the place of the average American to make decisions about these things.

In my opinion, transparency is important when it comes to matters of funding, of finance, of government officials breaking the laws of our country. I don't think it should apply to matters of military strategy, or to matters of national security, or to matters of personal relations (in the sense of friendships, co-operativeness or lack thereof, etc.) between diplomats, or to matters of opinion in relation to foreign diplomats and leaders.

In other words: we elected these people to do a job that we can't. I think we should leave them alone and let them get on with it.

It's turning out Wikileaks is a gossip monger spreading confindential correspondence between State Department gossipers.

Who cares if some Russian is considered a drunk by another drunk? Who cares if some Saudi prince is a stick in the mud for some other stick in the mud? People who care already know, people who have to know that and more. People who want others to do their thinking for them couldn't care less and don't want to be bothered.

There may be intelligence nuggets in the morass, but they're methods and sources nuggets for how gossip propagates from disgruntled sources. No surprises there.

Julian Assange is a shrill spectacle of an underloved son churlishly substituting public approval for motherly love any way he can. Damn the metaphorical torpedoes, reckless full speed ahead into 'em.

Pitiable at least, a pitiful waste. One that will lead to ever more restrictions on free speech for the greater good's sake. And ever more imaginative ways to circumvent prohibitions and restrictions. And an ever progressing cycle of technologically innovative cops and robbers and cowboys and indians games at the public's expense.

I don't get it...you also work at CNET? How do you have the time for another job? Even if it's very part time.
I hope you and your gene pool spawn someday soon. We need more of that gene type around this world.

I didn't know you were a MySpace blogger. That was around the time I was blogging on there...I probably read your blog. I was reading quite a few of them from 2006-2008. I was a top ten blogger over there from 2007-2008, which means absolutely nothing except (I think) it strengthened my writing and gave me an outlet during a time I needed it.

I would have loved a historian's pick for both non-fiction and fiction Civil War titles. How could he not put Geraldine Brooks' MARCH on a list?

Or even Abraham Lincoln-Vampire Hunter? ; )

Seriously, a great and varied post, I look forward to your recap every week.

So cool! I made Comment of the Weeks! I'm kind of bummed, though, that I posted as Anonymous for that one. :(

I love Anthony Bourdain's travel show, No Reservations. I find it ironic that even though he recommends not expressing anger on blogs, he definitely doesn't refrain from criticizing people in his field, often angering his colleagues. Interesting article about him on Book Beast, America's Bad Boy Chef - the stories about the people he's criticized are incredible. Bourdain's not overly polite, that's for sure. Here's a brief excerpt from the article:

And yet here he is—one of the brashest, most incisive commentators in the food business—sitting in the outdoor garden of Esca on West 43d Street, promoting a piece of work that comes with a chapter called “Alan Richman Is a Douche Bag,” about GQ’s well-known food critic. Elsewhere in the book, Bourdain, 53 years old, disses almost all of his former colleagues from the Food Network, and hurls enough insults toward the various stars of his profession to keep gossip columnists busy for weeks. (And indeed, they have been.)

His problem with Sandra Lee, the Food Network star who makes barbecue pizza from Pillsbury dough, and chicken potpie with frozen mixed vegetables, is that she has helped dumb down the entire profession of being a chef. Not to mention that Bourdain finds her personally terrifying.

Hi Nathan,

Like Will, I also wanted to say thank you for the mention - a great round-up, as well. I was especially interested in the concept of the voice of the crowd; those are thought I had had but had been unable to express to myself so well.

Best for 2011

Simon

Nathan, thank you for the mention of milesmaria, and also for citing Bruce Sterling's measured response to Wikileaks. I caught this a few weeks ago and thought he did a fine job of giving the debate some much-needed texture.

The sky is falling! Good or bad for publishers? Could go either way. But it's all happening so fast! This reminds me of when digital cameras came out people switched to digital much faster than Kodak anticipated. It's really a good time for EVERYONE in the industry to be watching carefully...

I guess my tipping point came last year. I remember reading some tech site's live blogging of Apple's iPad announcement, and like so many others at that time, I remember thinking, Neat, but I don't need that. By the next day, I'd completely changed my mind. So someone who just has an old iPod and never even coveted anyone's smart phone was preordering the biggest iPad I could afford. And I have been very, very happy with my purchase.

iBooks is my favorite reading app, but I still tend to read just samples (I LOVE that feature) and classics as ebooks. I love being able to use the in-app dictionaries, which I need more often in a classic. For now, I still prefer regular books, but it's just me. My husband prefers ebooks.

For what it's worth - my husband and I are both 40 and we don't have any issues with the backlighting when reading! :-) In general, I suspect that if you use a computer regularly and don't have troubles with eyestrain, you're probably going to be fine. If you do have troubles, take a pass on the iPad and Nook Color. For me, I only have problems when my computer is the primary light source in the room.

I have a Nook. It was a gift. I still prefer to read manually.
However, I was taken immediately by the lure of the device, and found myself reading on it. And then I found myself browsing the web on it, and not reading. Part of the joy of reading is the immersion, and an electronic device doesn't allow that; there will always be distractions at hand.

Like 3D and CG in the movies, I believe this is the wave of the future, whether we like it or not. People still buy CD's, with the iTunes store there, because not everyone has or wants an iPod. Books will continue to have an audience, but I fear the smaller titles will be harder to find in physical form. I imagine publishers taking fewer risks.

Books may go the way of vinyl, and come back with a nostalgic resurgence, when we miss the feel of them, the art on the covers, and the ease of sharing them. I like reading books and donating them to the library or readers who can't afford them, so I'll always buy books.

I imagine, like music, the Smartphone Set will read by squinting at their little electronic zombifier, but I think physical media will be with us for at least another ten years. Music first, then movies, then books.

My husband gave me an eReader this Christmas and next year I'm asking for some kind of pad.

I think the future is here, Nathan, and the walls of the traditional publishing world are crashing down as we speak. I think you were wise to get out of the agent business, which I think is due of some correspondingly huge changes over the next few years. Authors, even big-timers, will soon be going it alone via e-publishing. I mean, why accept anythign less than the 70% royalty that you get via e-publishing?

The tipping point is indeed here! Or has been sneaking up on the world for a while, gaining momentum and preparing for a massive assault!

I bought an iPad last year, and it has been the best investment I ever made. I'd be hard pushed to buy a paper book again.

Oh and great forecasting Nathan!

Obviously nothing beats the iPad, but I'm curious to know if you think any of the others are decent as well. Like that Samsung one, or the Android based units.

I realize the CNET articles probably have some opinions on that, and I will go take a look, but I would like to know what you think Nathan.

matt-

Unfortunately I haven't had a chance to check them out yet. The CNET editors are the real experts, there are some incredible articles and videos from CES.

Vegas! Oh, I'm so jealous. I love Vegas - it's Disneyland for grown-ups. I hope you're having a chance to do the Vegas thing, Nathan, and not just work.

I don't need a tablet because I have the I-phone app. If I didn't have that app, would I buy a tablet?

Like Swampfox, I usually don't buy the shiny new toys until I'm sure the technology is standing still for awhile. But e-books are so unbelievably convienent, I might have bought a tablet.

I'm a student, and four of my 300+ textbooks are on my I-phone and weigh less than a pound. I can read them anywhere, anytime and they were delivered to me within seconds. And the tablet itself has a definite appeal for a student.

In terms of what's happening, the fact that Apple made a glorious product (per usual) that everyone wants and other companies will compete with is helping the process move along quickly.

But overall, technology is consolidating. Soon, we'll have something we wear all day that carries all forms of entertainment and work products combined so we have instant access 24-7 to everything!

Except a vacation in Vegas. Sigh. Clearly, someday soon, I'll need visit the Bellagiop! Have fun, Nathan. Have a good weekend, everyone!

I don't know, I just can't get excited about the tablets. I mean, how many devices does a person need? I have the iphone and the MacBook already. I looked at the ipad at the store, had the cash to buy it, but thought, meh, what do I want it for? My other stuff does everything I need.


And just a quick question: Are you no longer doing the Page Critique Fridays?

anon-

Page critiques are on temporary hiatus as I've had such a crazy month, but hope to resume them soon!

I love e-reading. I read Franzen's Freedom in hardcover, and it felt so big and awkward to hold after using my kindle and phone to read on.

Oh, Nathan, my family went to the beach in Mexico over the holidays, and my husband put his Kindle in the ziplock bag I'd brought our sunblock in. I thought, hm, I seem to remember another smart man having this same idea.

Hi Nathan: super quick 2 questions, unrelated to this post's content (sorry about that, didn't know where else to ask).
These are about agenting, and sorry if perhaps you've answered them elsewhere:
1. I know it's really hard to get an agent, but what would you say is the percentage of agented fiction writers that get book deals? Like, 25%? 10%?
2. Once you get an agent, on average, how much time does it take to get a deal? I know it's case by case, but what's a pretty standard window?
Thanks a mil if you get the time to answer this....hope you enjoy the rest of CES...
Mark

Due to economics for some people, saturation may take longer - after all, isn't it just a replacement for several of the single devices we already have?

When my laptop dies, I might consider one. I'd probably wait for the inevitable 'bugs' to be worked out.

Do they take trade-ins for tablets? That might stimulate more sales. I do like the idea of driving down prices for the masses (that includes me).

I'll wait and watch for a while to see what the track record will be. I'm sure some will perform better than others.

I'm not there yet but I'm close. But my Droid has a kindle app so I've been experimenting.

I'm still on the fence with a tablet, but Notion Ink's Adam is really, really tempting, especially with the Pixel Qi display. Of course, I've been itching to get one of those displays in my netbook.

It will also be interesting to see what comes of Android's Honeycomb, which is being designed around tablet UIs.

I can understand why so many people want Kindles and iPads and e-readers, especially if they travel often for business. I recognize that the industry will probably tip further and further towards e-readers -- I used to teach high school, and I think the up-and-coming digital native generation will significantly increase the demand for tablets. That said, even though moving my physical library from apartment to apartment can be a pain in the butt, I'm a tactile person, and there are few things I love more than reading an actual "flesh and blood" book.

@Bryan/Ink:

I got the new Mac Air, the 11". I couldn't justify the iPad either; I really needed something ultra-portable that I could write on.

This thing is perfect. Absolutely awesome. It's light enough that I can actually lie in bed and surf if I'm so inclined--it's not idea for that but it gives you some idea of how portable it is. It's a beautiful machine too. Flash memory like the iPad.

There's a bug in the firmware they are fixing where the screen goes unresponsive when you put it to sleep at odd times, but that's mostly fixed and I wouldn't hesitate to recommend it.

And yeah, if and when I get a tablet, I'll probably stick with Mac. Their stuff is just so...pretty. It's the computer equivalent of a fancy fountain pen.

I don't think I'll be getting one. There is nothing, in my opinion, better than a real live book. But, some people love e-books and I have nothing against them. (And is it bad that I had never actually heard of a tablet before today's blog post?)

Annnd...here's something that might keep me away from an eReader!

I have an iPad and I love it, too much in fact. Trouble is our family shares it. I'm sick of sharing LOL. I want my own. A tablet therefore, especially if it's a lot cheaper than the iPad, just may be in my future.

I'll wait to see how the competition shakes out with the slew of tablets coming out.

It sure is an exciting time. Can't wait to see how this market evolves.

I don't think I need a tablet or maybe I'm not sure what they are or can do. I agree with Dara above--a netbook is fine for me. I can write, check email, etc, and I read most of my books (usually almost brand new and FREE) from the library, or buy them at bookstores, or occasionally buy them for my ereader.

Only bad thing about the netbook is that it's sloooowww. But I bought the cheapest one.

@ Otherlisa

Thanks! And I've heard great things about the Mac Air. My sister-in-law is looking to get one, so maybe I'll sneak off to a closet and give it a test run when nobody's looking.

I read books on my iPad, my iPhone, my e-ink nook, my laptop computer (all using the nook app), and of course p-books. My favorite medium for reading, hands-down, is the iPad. I would love it for reading even if it didn't do everything else I could possibly want.

I want one. I was just in Hawaii and did my own little survey of e-reader v. paper books. My sister had her Kindle, I had my paper books and it was divided about that way on the pool deck 50/50. I want the iPad, but waiting for the second generation. "Patience, Grasshopper," Mr. Miyagi says, "Patience."

I absolutely love my iPad. Studying English in college killed reading for me, and the iPad brought it back. It's that revolutionary.

Two of my coworkers received iPads as thank-you gifts from our company this year; when I asked them what they thought of iBooks, they told me they'd never abandon paper. Although one admits to reading children books to her nephew with the iPad to get him used to the technology.

So I think it's a mix. There are those that are going to love e-readers forever, but there's still so many that won't abandon paper. I think the change will come gradual, with the introduction [and loss] of generations.

I purchased an iPad the first day they came out and it rocks. It does 'almost' everything a netbook does and more.
Read an article last week that stated 'readers-only' would be phased out in favor of tablets. I say smart move!

I have an iPod, and iPad, and a Kindle. Love them all for different reasons. And I still buy and read BOOKS. In fact, I'm reading more than ever. I have to believe all this availability has something to do with it.
:)
e

I'm not normally an early adopter but I bought an iPad before they even came out in my home country. I'd been hanging out for an e-reader, but I wanted one with a choice of stores. So when the iPad came out, I took the plunge, even though it was an extravagant purchase. It helps that my laptop is supplied by work, so I'm not paying for a computer and a tablet.

The backlit screen doesn't bother me, and in fact it's great when I'm reading in bed and my husband wants to switch out the light. I downloaded a lot of games and other apps when I first bought it, but the novelty of playing games on it has worn off, so I mostly use it now for its intended purpose - reading books - as well as browsing the internet. I bought it on holiday in the States, and was able to download several books for the rest of the trip. I was also stuck lugging around a p-book I'd borrowed from my sister. She wanted it back so once I'd finished it, the book became an annoying extra weight. I'm stoked that next time I go on holidays, I can take as many books as I like on one device.

Oh and I should add that I got 15 paper books for Christmas, so I'm not reading exclusively on the iPad yet! Part of the problem is I live in Australia, and publishers here have been slower to jump on the e-book wagon. There's a lot of books I'd love to buy electronically, but if I want them any time soon I'm going to have to buy in paper form.

Definitely getting an iPad when the new ones come out later this year. I plan to use it as a replacement for my laptop. I'm also considering the purchase of a Kindle for a dedicated reader. I have myasthenia gravis so lighter is just easier for me.

I love writing with my iPad and wireless keyboard in Peet's and Starbucks (not at the same time of course).

But I'm jealous you get to go to CES for work. I used to, many jobs ago, and it was a fun time. I'd have to work the booth, but I'd also get plenty of free time to browse.

The worst year was when we exhibited across from some hard disk company that had a looped video game running nonstop. This was in the days of 8-bit sound, and I think their volume control went to eleven.

The stupidest self-promotion I ever saw at CES was a guy who sold floppy disks. He was handing out business card fridge magnets. Hello? Floppy disks don't really like magnets much.

My "world has gone crazy" moment was when I walked past the WordPerfect booth (this may have been COMDEX, not CES), and forty people were barking like dogs so the presenter might throw the free WordPerfect tee shirt at them.

I wish I could go again. I miss CES.

The market will continue to grow, at least for now. No clue how long it'll be before market starts to get saturated, but as long as the tech keeps advancing and prices keep coming down? I may actually end up buying one by next xmas. I suspect we'll see ipad knock-offs for $199 by next xmas. Ereaders will likely be going for about $89.

Sadly, I suspect the growing ebook market is going to bring the demise of Borders, because they seem to have failed on this transition. This is going to suck if it happens, at least for authors, of which I am one. I'll keep my fingers crossed for them.

Won't be buying a tablet this year but I'll certainly be working on an idea specifically for e-book publication such as a travel guide.

Like you, I sort of had a vision of these tablets for reading books, long before they were a sparkle in the etechno eye.

These tablets are not quite what I saw in my dream, but I did see the potential of my memoir displayed on these screens. And it looked really good!

I almost purchased a Nextbook3 on HSN Dec 22. Or was it a Coby, or a Samsung Galaxy, I don't remember, so you can see that I have not purchased a tablet YET. I did not buy one after reading discouraging reviews on at least four brands. I had decided to wait a few more months until the overriding problems of batteries not charging, slow access and inability of uploading apps from various sources had my head spinning like the Disneyland Wild Mouse ride. Maybe I'll give myself the gift of one on Valentine's Day.

Would love to be an early adopter, but I'll buy an iPad (we are an Apple household) when it is more internationally compatible - UK, US - both from a physical electrical pov and the software / bookstore / access side. We may be moving Stateside in the coming 2-5 years - I can wait that long, then get the next (plus a few) generation down the line. So any estimation when publishing rights will become global by language and not by physical territory? Music is still limited (on iTunes for example, can't buy certain items from international i-Stores) and it is very frustrating as a consumer.

I have been waiting for the prices to come down and the competition to heat up. I travel a LOT and, like Bron, got a large valise of books this Xmas, which I then had to lug back to one of three residences. I only brought "select" titles on with me to residence #2 due to weight considerations. My lifestyle is begging for a reader, but I've been dragging my technologically ignorant heels. This year is the year. (hear that family? You can buy me even MORE books next year!! and I won't even have to come home to freezing Canada to get them - huzzah!!)

I - think - this - is - all - too much! Too much tech stuff too fast.

Anyone agree?

I'll wait for next year's model--or maybe the several new models that will come out the following year.

No, I won't be buying one. I enjoy reading an actual book way too much. Reading onscreen for too long is distracting and gives me a headache. Plus there's just something so tactile about a real book for me.

This is very cool - I'm writing a short piece on difference between selling and marketing for writers (okay, poets, I admit), and I think I'm going to quote your blog post here...or at least link to it.

Very cool to be quoting "The NB" in something I'm writing.

If it whirls or whistles, I want it and I don't even know why. I'm a marketers dream (or so my husband tells me). But, even I don't want an iPad or a tablet - not yet anyway.

I'm perfectly content with my laptop, phone and ofcourse my favorite Nook Color...LOVE IT.

Yes,yes, yes, I will get a tablet this year!

Curious though ... it seems like e-readers are selling best in the 20+ age group ... any sign that e-readers will catch fire with the teen crowd?

Well, with yesterday's (interesting and challenging) post still fresh in my mind, I'm just going to say - without resort to acrobatic or hilarious hyperbole, too tired - that this really could be a tipping point towards ebooks for many. The new tablet with colour and wider screens (and touch screens?) at a more economical price and with ebooks pricer being cheaper than print books is, indeed, very enticing. And as your wife, Allison, pointed out in her blog, the space-saving benefits are huge. That's something I hadn't thought of but can relate to with my walls covered by a multitude of book shelves.

Thanks for this info, Nathan. Appreciate being kept update.

I love new technology as much as the next person, but this is my big objection to e-books and why I have not bought an e-reader yet. After I read a book, I like to either keep it on my shelf to lend or give to someone else, or else take it to the used book store. With an e-reader, it just sits there taking up space, and I probably won't reread it. The ability to share e-books is very limited. And the books are still expensive enough that I think they are too much for a one-time read. I read a lot. I averaged more than a book a week in the past year, and only one was an e-book, which I read on Kindle for PC.

I want one so bad. I couldn’t tell you which one. I want one that fits all my needs – something beyond the Kindle, I believe. I’ll definitely check out CNET. Thanks. Will I buy one this year? God, I hope so.

As for the tipping point, for me, it was nearly two years ago after I purchased my iPhone and downloaded all those book apps. Now, I won’t tell you how many books I own or how many apps I have. It’s pretty alarming. As for those that are reluctant to the technology, my only thought is they probably haven’t found a need/use for it yet.

As for e-books vs. paper books…I personally don’t care. I’ll take books new, used, paperback, hardcover, e-format – whatever – it doesn’t matter to me. E-readers are just more convenient giving an avid reader instant gratification.

I have no plans to buy an e-reader or a tablet. However, I would choose a tablet over the reader. A tablet is multi-purposed, has a long battery life, it's large enough that I can actually see the print, and it's lightweight. If someone wanted to give me one, I would gladly accept, but for the cost of the tablet, I can buy a lot of real books that I can actually touch while I read. I just can't afford or want to make that leap to a virtual life. Not yet.

I bought my husband, a constant business traveler, an iPad and he loves it. It's a lot easier to schlep in the briefcase than, say, "Under the Dome."

On the other hand, I wonder what these gadgets mean for my beloved beach read? Sand + iPad= $ down the drain. It will always be paper by the sea for me, I think.

Does anyone actually read the terms of service for those devices and the ebooks? Here is some news: you don't buy the device or the ebooks, just a license to use them. The provider can cut you off and doe snot have to compensate you for the loss of your ebooks. Hello, is anyone awake?

I'm interested, but I still have no plans to get one. I'm too old-school, I want a physical book in my hand.

If I didn't already have a Nook, a Droid X (which has a kindle and nook app), and a laptop that I take everywhere with me, I can definitely see myself owning an iPad. But as is, I don't need anymore gadgets on the go.

Interesting piece in Publishers Weekly about lack of publishers in Vegas right now.



http://blogs.publishersweekly.com/blogs/PWxyz/?p=4028

Your choice of the word "curate" leapt out at me! I hope that publishers don't become merely displayers of fine art, culled and displayed while the (other) masterpieces sit in the museum vaults. That would be a sad day for everyone.

I agree with your (ever) optimistic tone about the future for authors, though! It's never been easy, and never will be, but it's a journey with more possibility for personal satisfaction.

Happy New Year!

Happy New Year!

Whatever the transition means for writers, it is definitely bringing good things for readers. Since most of us are both, there are blessings regardless.

Cheers!

Fantastic outlook that leaves the Big Squeeze looking more like a right-of-passage, and less like a lemon-press.

Thanks! Perfect outlook to start a great writing year.

Whoopsie - I was looking at the wrong post when I wrote my first comment.

This is so well-spoken, and I think an excellent summation. Very well said. It's inspired me to pontificate. (I've already read my post, so I can come back and tell you I definitely pontificate. If you don't want to hear me pontificate, I'd stop reading. Really. Pontification ahead.)

Okay, onto the pontification. It's true, I don't envy those still in publishing, but for authors, we are about to see the golden age. Never before has the author had so much freedom. It's truly wonderful. Because what e-books really means is Freedom of Publishing.

I was just thinking the other day that no one could stop me from being published, and how incredible that is. I don't need to find someone who agrees with me, or shares my vision. I won't find my work forever buried because a small group of people decided my message should not be heard.

This is directly relevant to the first part of your post. The struggle between those who want to garner ALL the power/money, and the rest of us is a constant. I believe many things can help that struggle, but one of the most important is for those who have little power to have both a voice and access to information.

That is what the advent of e-books means, and it's why I welcome it with open arms. Voices can find an audience. The impact of Freedom of Publishing has not yet begun, but I believe it will be profound.

Can I think of a dark side to this, and possible unfortunate detours? Oh yes. But that's always the case, the human race always has to grapple with it's shadow. But Freedom of Publishing is a massive change, something the world has never seen before, and I believe it will ultimately be a tremendous force for good.

That's my belief and hope, and so I welcome e-books with true hope and optimism.

Oh my. Well, then. Enough pontification. I'm going to come back later for my yearly thank you to Nathan - and this one will be a BIG THANK YOU. But for now, I'll stop.

Many blessings to all for 2011! Happy New Year!

Thanks for your candor, Nathan. Some slightly connected thoughts:-

So agenting was a much bigger squeeze than Social Mediating?

Statistics do not necessarily support what you say about polarization, but many people feel as you do, and we all know the saying about 'lies, damned lies, and statistics'.

We writers are perhaps tempted to imagine agents lounging like Roman emperors, slave girls popping grapes into their mouths as they judge us, thumbs up or thumbs down, mostly thumbs down. Yet most agents never get to represent a megabestseller.

A $10 e-book is probably as profitable for all involved as a $14 trade paperback, excluding the printers and shippers and warehousemen, who are no longer needed. Likewise a $5 e-book and a mass market paperback. But finding/creating an e-book analogue to a $25 hardcover is a greater challenge, particularly since that price is more a matter of windowing than the cost of two pieces of cardboard and a dust jacket.

I do dream of megabestsellerdom, among other seemingly crazy things. Yet I am happy to have written 500 or more comments on your blog and forums this year, for nothing except my own satisfaction and a little attention from others. A paradox!

Pope Mira The First, pontificate to your heart's content! I agree we can all be published now, though I do not want to be underpublished, to borrow a word from Nathan.

The husband and I were just having a discussion about polarization (and the haves and have nots and how scary it was all getting here in the USA, etc), so it is interesting to me that you touched on this. In a time in our world and culture when it would be so easy to be a pessimist, I read the optimism in your posts and I feel a little better (the way I feel when I get my fix of Jon Stewart). There are always amazing things happening and amazing people out there in the world and you are one of them. I celebrate all your contributions to my trying-very-hard-to-be-optimistic daily life. A toast to you, Mr. Bransford. Happy 2011.

When a mega-star agent like you jumps ship, we all have to read in between the lines.

So sorry, that it's that bad. Really sorry.

And still wishing you the very Very Best.

Man, publishing is in the pitfalls, we thinketh.

Happy new year!

I came on this blog hoping for a fresh start in the publishing industry and instead I get this- what a bummer. But, I think what we're really worried about is not the e-book era, but the change. We, as authors, unpublished and published are worried what this means for us after hundreds of years of the paperback and hardback. Sometimes technology sucks- but it can be a good thing. The music industry has accepted the ipod and downloads and has accepted people don't want to go out and buy singles on a CD. It has survived in the tough waters, even though more and more people are illegaly downloading music. The publishing industry needs to follow their example. We will all survive this new round of technology!

(I just realised I'm one of the first commenters of 2011 who come from Britain- hehe.)

Happy New Year!
Here's to bridging divides.
Good luck with the goals you have set yourself for 2011.
(I believe it is all in the strategy;))

"...it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness..."

The other thing I wonder about is, as a reader, whether it becomes more of a challenge to find books that a) interest you and b) are good. I can't shake the feeling that (please forgive this appallingly bad metaphor) there'll be a lot more books chasing a smaller pool of readers.

Of course, hasn't that been the case for a long time already?

And out of the big squeeze will come the wish, the demand, the need for good story. Always.

Nathan, as usual, I appreciate your clear thinking and positive spin on this time of transition. I use the word disequilibrium. Whenever and wherever there is growth, we must go through times of chaos and disequilibrium. Once the ground has shifted, equilibrium will return even though the landscape may be changed. Through it all, though, good stories will remain.

Happy New Year to all.

Well, I'm taking your words with a side order of black-eyed peas and hoping for the best.
May 2011 be good to all of us. Happy New Year!

Transition is a very apt word. However, I think the transition is still going to continue through this year and the next and the next. Technology never stops!

Lisa

So many people in the United States are finding themselves suddenly homeless, unemployed, and/or seriously ill without medical insurance. Great book on this topic written by Arianna Huffington, founder of The Huffington Post, an Internet newspaper: Third World America: How Our Politicians Are Abandoning the Middle Class and Betraying the American Dream. I find it inspiring that Arianna has given such a huge voice to social issues through a newspaper on the Internet and is now frequently interviewed on TV news.

Nathan, best of luck to you as you go forward in your career as an author and in your new job in the tech/media field.

We writers will continue to plod or zoom along, depending on where we are in the writing process. Thanks for answering the question about how long it took you to finish your second book - a previous post. 8 months sounds good to me.

As for publishing, we continue to watch and wait for some of the dust to settle. Even in S. King's The Stand - there were some survivors.

Hello 2011!! I've posted my own writing resolutions on my blog, just to keep me in line.

And Happy New Year to you, too, Nathan! *smiling*

Right now, I'm struggling to see a downside to the current 'transitions' in the publishing industry.

After a year of submissions (close but no cigar) I self-published my novel in August, catching the first wave of the UK Kindle Store. By tomorrow teatime, I'll have sold my 7,000th ebook.

I cannot tell you how good that feels. Happy new year!

Thanks for the New Years Post. I am relatively new to the publishing world and get nervous when I think about the changes brought on by technology. But then I remember, for me, technology has made my writing life possible. I would never have been able to write and sell my novel if I hadn't hadn't had access to a computer for research (both for plot and publishing biz info--thanks BTW), word processing, portability AND being able to query and send partials/fulls electronically, etc. Yes, I fear piracy and the inevitable e-book-slush pile--but I know I can't have my publisher and eat it too.

"As long as you're not counting on megabestsellerdom to satisfy your personal happiness or to pay your bills, there is so much satisfaction to be had."

Well said.

Thanks for another great and thought provoking post. I will say that in the midst of a shifting publishing paradigm, I do feel encouraged by the freedom that shift may afford aspiring authors.

Best of luck in 2011!

Thank you Nathan for your thoughtful post... Polarizarion is everywhere. In the USA and other "developed" nations perhaps some readers are feeling the effects for the first time but in the "developing" world, we are old hats and you know what... once the slope has gotten slippery, I don't know of any way to turn it back into a level playing field.

Individuals can get their footing IF they are exceptional. Not exceptional by their own standards but by the gold standard. Yes, self esteem is a good thing and dreams keep us going but under this "new order" it takes extremely hard, consistant effort for "we the masses" to break into the inner sanctum.

So boot up, keep your bootie in the chair and write on! When you think your done, edit, edit, edit... rewrite, rewrite,rewrite... promote, promote, promote... The road is long, keep your feet on the ground!

When even Forbes Magazine says the American middle class is dying, you know we've got some pretty big problems.

@Joanna: Individuals can get their footing IF they are exceptional

So true (and I agree with the rest of what you said as well). Personally I'm allowing myself to feel a bit of optimism. But I worry, a lot, about what kind of society we are becoming.

Great food for thought. Happy New Year Nathan.

J.T. - I hear you, I have some similar fears. But at least with e-books, if you 'under-publish', you can still publish as many books as you want! Maybe the next one will hit.

So, Nathan, time for my yearly from the heart thank you.

Thank you.

After I recovered from your career switch, I realized how much I really love your blog. I learn so much here!I stretch and grow as a writer - and as a person - and I'm very grateful for that. I'm sure the blog must feel like just one more thing to do sometimes, when you're so busy, and I really appreciate your hard work, your insights, your humor and your consistency.

I said this last year, and I'll say it again now because it's still true. One of your great gifts is that you listen when people say something. When I type my little posts into the little boxes, I always know that you'll listen to what I have to say. That is a very rare gift that you have, one that is valuable on many different levels, and I truly thank you for it.

I hope life sends you much joy in the New Year,with lots of time to rest and have fun, and that you have an extremely happy one!

What Nathan decided not to mention is that authors like JA Konrath make MORE money from the sale of a $2.99 eBook than they were from the sale of a $25.00 hardcover.

That is the reality of the eBook world. Both the power and the money are now directly in the control of the author.

The gates are down and it is the gatekeepers who now have their heads in the noose.

Don't let the fact that both of the "Rock Star" Agent Bloggers now no longer work in the publishing industry escape your attention.

The opposite not quite polar answer to the Big Squeeze is the Big Grab. The haves continue to grab and cling and claim first dibs on their just due slice, while the have nots continue to try to carve out a slice, forelornly, sometimes, all too often abandoning hope and going out on the freebooters' career. C'est la vie.

I'll settle for carving out what I need, be content that I'm not missing out on the material display of ostentatious wealth that attracts freebooters, and conformtable that I don't have to be one. For rich or poor, I'll get by, because I have lots of practice at it.

May each day of the coming year be vibrant and New bringing along many reasons for celebrations. Wishing you a fabulous 2011!

Very good description of the hopes, fears and opportunities in the publishing world today.

The comment on polarization in our culture should be of concern. One of America's greatest strengths has been our unity in times of adversity. At a time when we need unity more than ever, the media and our leaders in nearly every fields are "dividing and conquering" by focusing on the things that divide us.

My first self-published ebook novel, Lie Merchants (www.LieMerchants.com), takes this theme to heart.

I got a lot of personal satisfaction in making my ebook available for sale on the Kindle Store and other online book sellers. I know I have a long road to go in terms of promoting Lie Merchants, but that is true of any new business.

The bottom line is that my book is selling, I am earning profits to recoup my investment in the work. More importantly to me, the ideas in the book are now out there in the marketplace and being disseminated to an audience. No agent or publisher filtered the ideas because they were considered controversial or unusual.

To me, ebooks and self-publishing have given more voices a huge megaphone to exercise our freedom of expression. If we use our new "freedom of publishing" responsibly, then over time like-minded authors can help heal the divisions in our culture and come together for solving many of the big issues that are not being addressed by our leadership today.

Nathan, thank you for being generous and unselfish with your experiences.

this broke architect concurs wholeheartedly.....

love the SCRUM.....

this broke architect concurs wholeheartedly.....

love the SCRUM.....

What if you don't want to get to the top of the pyramid? If you don't care about the pyramid and you just want to be a working writer?
I found this post very bleak.

Nathan. First of all Thank You for all the words/blogs and everything in-between.
I am sad and happy for you both- I am not sure if that even makes sense.
I haven't been on here for a while and this is the post I found.
I came here to actually ask you a question. You answered without needing to hear it.

I wish you the best of luck and hope you stay blogging. Your heartfelt posts have been an inspiration to us all. Hey I say you got talent kid!
do keep blogging-
Livi

Yo. Behold the tipping point!

Finally!!! We're already there. 2 Sony readers and a Kindle in our house. Husband is reading the full Neal Stephenson series on his K so not to lug around the tomes. I'm reading Wuthering Heights in larger print, better for my dyslexic eyes. And the book's free.

It's the older generation I believe that is discovering the larger print payoff. Kids can't afford it much. Would love to see the breakdown on consumers.

I missed the poll, but I have ZERO interest in holding an e-book in my hand. While I both download music and still buy CD's, I've yet to live in both worlds on this front. Of course, as a writer who wouldn't mind being published on a larger scale down the road, I would not object to being included in an e-book roster. Just sayin'. Cheers, Michael

"Oh the times, they are a-changin'"

- Bob Dylan

Now go back and read that again in an uber-nasally voice for the full effect.

WORD VERIFICATION: tercha. A controversial way to extract information from terists.

Where's Che Guevara when you need him?

I loves the data. Thanks! :)

Yeah, that data makes sense to me. In years past, I was in the sect that said you'd have to pry my paper books out of my cold, dead hands. But I bought a Sony Reader this year, and there's no looking back for me. I love reading ebooks! They are, in my humble lil' opinion, so much easier and more convenient to read than paper books.

One day some teacher is going to make a comment about "throwing the book at someone" to which some 16 yr old will respond, "Dude, like, what is a book?" The world will end in that moment, whether it continues or not.

Also the word verification is "corkings." I don't know why it is funny, but I'm pretty sure it might be.

I knew it was coming!

Come on, you holdouts! Admit it--an e-book on your Android phone is easier to carry around than a hardcover, especially if you're reading Dan Brown.

Personally, I love audio downloads, too. I can put 3-4 books on my tiny iPod Shuffle and enjoy a book while I take a walk.

And the rate of change is increasing...

Nothing against ebooks. One day I may have a kindle or Sony Reader. It's still not my favorite way to read. I like holding the book, dog-earring it, highlighting if it's an especially interesting non-fiction, and sitting in my warm, comfy chair with a cup of tea next to me in my livingroom.

I just can't imagine an reading an ebook in the bathtub. No matter how careful I am a drop or two always manages to stain the pages.

I also don't think that paper or hard bound will ever go out of style. Ebooks are just another way to read.

You'll have to pry my books from my cold, dead hands.

Hmm. I wonder if oral storytellers had this same reaction when the printing press was first invented.

Me personally, I'm a pragmatist. I go with the technology. I'm still buying paper books at the moment, but as soon as e-readers get cool-looking and cheap enough, I'm on the bandwagon with no shame.

@Chris Phillips: Books will still exist. They will just be in different formats. And sadly, there are probably already 16-year-olds who would say that.

That said, I don't think physical books are likely to disappear any time soon. I work in a library, and even with the trend toward going e-only, we still buy a huge amount of physical books and work in consortia to keep at least one physical copy of any title in the system for back-up purposes. Considering the cost of e-readers (which are coming down, at least), there will still be many who can only afford to buy or borrow paper for quite a time to come.

It's Thursday, and there's a new post from Nathan!! Yay!

That makes me so happy. It's not that I don't want you to take care of yourself, Nathan, I really do - it's just everything together. You Know. So, it's very lovely to have an unexpected Nathan post! Yay!

So, I don't really have much to add to the actual post, except the results are very interesting! I'd expect the trend to continue, just because e-books are so much more accessible and convienent, on so many levels. I think you've said before, Nathan, that efficiency tends to win out, and I think that's very true.

Nikole, one of the great features of an e-reader is that it's easier to deal with in the bathtub. Just stick it in a Ziploc. Turning pages is no problem.

You can do all of the other things with an e-book, too. You hold the reader, you can bookmark pages, you can highlight passages, and you certainly can read it in your warm, comfy chair with your cup of tea.

Verification word: turcroci - a pet food made from turkey and crocodile meat.

Nathan,

I think this poll helped me realize something. There's a huge difference between what I WILL do and what I PREFER to do.

I WILL read books in any format, anywhere, at any time. If I see a story on an e-reader, my computer, my phone, finger-painted in wet concrete or projected onto the moon - I'll read it. The great thing about e-books is that they give more people more options like this.

However, I PREFER to do my reading with paper books. If I happen to read a brilliant story on my computer at work (while, um, working), I'll still buy the print version - probably at 5:01 p.m. If my favorite author is releasing a new book, I wouldn't waste my time purchasing an e-book because I know that's not my preference. I go right to the hardcover. And that's why I remain in the "cold dead hands" crowd.

But, what's really amazing is that the industry has (finally) moved to a place where it can cater to both (or all!) types of readers!

First I wondered . . . is the poll skewed b/c so many of your blog followers (like me) are at least somewhat techie, and have more igadgets than anyone needs?

Then I realized it doesn't matter. E-books are only going to grow in popularity; ditto for the devices to download & read them on. The convenience factor alone is wicked cool.

And with the explosion of e-books, the opportunity for new authors to publish electronically has never been greater. You can't go a day on the blogsphere without finding a post somewhere about the merits of self-publishing in the hot e-book market. I'm still going the traditional publishing route, but I'm curious: are e-books vetted like those through traditional publishing channels? I think the answer is -- it varies. As does the stigma of self-publishing, electronic or otherwise. And regardless of how you publish your book, you've still got to get people to read it, or more to the point of your post, buy it. And I don't know whether e-readers will pay to download self-published novels.

Sorry for the digression. The query process exacts quite a toll...

Fun post, Nathan. Oh, and my answer is maybe. I still love the feeling of curling up with a paper book.

Interesting stats!

Kristin's comment that in her library the trend is going towards e-only makes me sad. The library keeps a print copy for backup purposes? That's just sad. And the main reason people don't have e-readers is that they're too expensive? That doesn't apply to me. The main reason I don't have an e-reader is that my husband knows that if he bought me one, I'd burn it.

It is nice that the publishing industry is able to cater to all tastes with both print and e-books. But to assume that eventually, when e-readers are cheap enough for everyone, we will all welcome them, is a little presumptuous.

I personally don't need to jump to the e-reader yet...but I anticipate a Kindle purchase in 2011. It's just...I like both. Why can't the world have both? Print books aren't going away, not so long as many consumers and schools can't afford e-readers. My husband's high school isn't going to buy him 90 e-readers so his students can read Twisted or Lord of the Flies. I say, the more ways people have to read, the better. It's not like the value of the content changes with the vehicle of delivery.

I say it is time for paper traditionalists and the digital vanguard to set their differences aside and agree there are enough words in the world for everyone.

And if they can't, I call for a knock down, drag out cage match. Winner take all.

Interesting, but not surprising. The more affordable the readers become, the more people who will jump on the e-bandwagon.

@Rick Daley - Bob D. sure knew his stuff, and continues to impress on his Theme Time Radio Show on XM/Sirius satellite radio. The voice is now more gravelly, like most blues singers.

@ INK (Bryan) - yeah, where is that Che (or his modern equivalent) when you need him?

I'd like to see these trends split by demographics, so we could see where the push comes from.

Interesting percentages...

As the proud owner of a Nook, I fully welcome the onslaught of new technologies for reading. For me, it made sense - I'm heading to college next year, and I simply can't bring my entire stock of real books with me. I just love the idea that I can carry around hundreds and hundreds of books in one tiny, pretty device that barely takes up any room in my purse.

The only downside, to me, is the price differential. I'm fairly certain that eBooks are damaging the publishing industry, right? (Not really sure, so feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.)

If this is the case, why don't publishers raise the eBook prices? I would imagine that even if you deducted the cost of the paper, ink, binding, and labor that goes into actually making a print book, you could still incorporate the slice of money that goes to the publishers.

Just a thought!

You'll have to pry my Kindle from my cold, dead hands.

Clearly, paper is on the way out. Brick and mortar will be next.

I was totally opposed to ebooks; I sneered, scoffed, sniffed, and snarled. Then... Oh then... wow, pow, Bam! I've never become so enamored of any gadget, ever. First of all, my carpal tunnel irritates me when I hold the weight of a book for anytime and the Kindle is featherweight in comparison. I like to read in bed or on the couch and holding a paperback (forget hardcover) so I can read it comfortably soon becomes agony... then there's the problem about broken spines, smeared print, torn covers (yes,I'm rough on books) -- not to mention toting them everywhere (I usually take 3 or 4 books on trips, always have a book in my briefcase, tote or purse, and it gets kinda' old). There's the additional beauty of an immediate download. I live 40 mins from the nearest good bookstore and now I can lay in bed and get a book at midnight in about a minute. And the New York Times and even email... (I'm told; I haven't tried the email yet). I mean, honest to God, what's not to like? And I can change the print and a good Kindle cover has a fabulous little reading light that replaces those huge clunky things I had to clip on my books when I read in bed (and the book, unless it was a monster itself, could never bear the weight of the light anyway). So, yes, yes, yes, a thousand times yes: I am now totally hooked. Do I love print? Sure. There's a place for print books and always will be but from now on I'm buying books I want to keep forever and not shelling out $10 (minimum) for a paperback that leaves me unimpressed (I'm still seething about the $20+ I dropped on big name authors this summer; their latest works were a joke). I can read great books for free and well under $10 (and save gas and time!) and it's very easy to preview a book w/o drinking 5 gals of coffee in a bookstore. My Kindle is my new best friend. Believe it. You'd have to pry it out of my cold dead hands to take it away from me!

I second Maureen's comment! And there is nothing quite so magical as holding AN ENTIRE LIBRARY of books in your hand at one time! Except for maybe having all seven HARRY POTTER books in e-form...

Interesting data.

FYI-There's a free webinar: Childrens Publishing in the Digital Age-Tues. Dec.7th 1pm.-2pm.EST. By Digital Book World and Publishers Weekly

That's quite a shift and in such a short time. I'd like to hope actual, hard-copy books will always be around for the die-hards (me included).

I LOVE my nook. (And it seems like the redheaded stepchild of the ereading devices. People are always Sony this and Kindle that. I'm tellin' you, Nook is where it's at.) Since I got it, I haven't read a paper book. I've got a stack of them that I bought at the same; they're sitting untouched time sitting on the bedside table. I didn't think I'd love it so much.

I'm a little concerned about this "color" trend for ereaders though. The whole point in a dedicated device is that the e-ink display isn't backlit and doesn't flicker, so it's comfortable for reading. Once you add an LCD and wifi, what you've got is a tablet you're calling an ereader. Not that I've got anything against tablets, but lets be honest about what the device is. If I wanted to read on an LCD, I'd read on my netbook or my smartphone.

I guess I'm old school (sadly at 44). I love to curl up in bed or on the couch with a book and a blanket. I can't imagine snuggling up with a mini computer. I read manuscripts on my laptop and I carry it around with me everywhere, but when comes time to read for pleasure give me paper!

I'll say it again: I just cannot stand to be limited to one page at a time the way a reader makes you read. I like to jump around, back and forth, bottom of page and top; to see how far I have come and how far I have to go. I read very, very fast, sometimes skimming, sometimes rereading. Real, paper books offer this kind of flexibility, so that the reader can take charge of their reading experience. Anything else is bizarrely controlling--I mean, in the age of interactive media, how can you all stand the limitations of an electronic reader? They're awful!

I have an i-pad and I swear I will NEVER use it to read a book! It is good only for reading political blogs and checking traffic conditions--ie., for gathering information. But a book, a real thing, is not just about information or even about pleasure. It's something more important than that.

OK, now I'll stop raving.

Extremely unscientific poll. Now that you're in the tech field, you've probably lost some writers but gained some tech people as followers on your Blog.

anon-

Which is why I was at pains yesterday to say it was unscientific.

It's not true that only the older generations are sticking to paper books. I'm 19 and I'm paper till the day I die. Don't be age-ist, people.

Unbelievable! :) I would have thought that old-timey analog books would be the last relic of the pre-technological revolution. Everything is changing, isn't it? An exciting time in which to live!
Still, I choose both. No e-reader could ever take the place of my books. The feel, the smell, the character. But I wouldn't want to travel with my personal library.

I've always voted "cold, dead hands," and I did so on this poll, in spite of the fact that I got a Nook about a month ago. Honestly, if you're someone who travels much AND reads quickly, an e-reader is invaluable. The tipping point for me was packing for a two-week trip to Hawaii and facing the prospect of having to lug 5+ books in my bag. I went out the day before I was supposed to leave and picked up a Nook. My carry-on was light, and I was still able to blaze through five or so books on the trip, with lots of options. Even if I never use the Nook when I'm not traveling, I think it's worth it.

But I have yet to buy an e-book, having rented those I read on the trip from the library. I can't imagine ever paying for an e-book, much less buying most of my books in e-form.

I love how one of the main reasons we "paper" lovers stick to print books is the SMELL. Likely someone will have an "olfactory app" for that someday.

That aside, I am happy that the world has broadened to make books available in alternate forms, but if e-books replace print completely, it may kill me.

It's cold dead hands for me, I read like ElizaJane. I would have an e reader as a back up if I had some spare money though.
Btw, when I clicked through to vote the poll wasn't there.

What an interesting trend! I'm one of those old fuddy-duddies that find reading lots of words on a screen a bit of a strain on the eyes. I still prefer my books in print form, snack stains, dog ears, ticket-stub bookmarks and all!

The tipping point is near (prediction of an actual date: December 25, 2010). :)

NOOO! Book Readers, we CANNOT let this happen!

Nathan, I missed your poll because it wouldn't accept it every time I tried to enter it. Refreshing the page over and over can only do so much.

I am a book purist and I will always be one. End of story. If you take away my beautiful, tangible books with its beautiful tangible pages and if you take away my new-book smell, I will start an uprising if nobody else will. The end.

(I have strong feelings against e-books and Kindles.)

Ever since I got an e-reader, I find that I'm reading more. It's more convenient. And I love the fact that I can just download whatever book I want, whenever I want, or borrow an e-book from my local library. I don't see the onset of e-readers being detrimental at all to books. In fact, I think it's a good thing.

Good to know. I wonder if a higher amount of less polished stories will make it to market as authors publish themselves under whichever models end up being available. I'm not sure if I have a solid opinion either way.

Hey we agree on something! I jest, I'm sure we agree on many things in spite of the one article of discourse.

Is that your ipad in the picture? I have to say I enjoy my ipad as an e-reader immensely more than my Kindle, with the exception that I downloaded the Kindle app and read my Kindle books on my ipad. As much as I enjoy the ibookstore, I find Amazon's site still reigns supreme, and I'm thrilled that I have the option for both on one piece of equipment.

Now that your a techie I'd love a future post on what your new work day consists of. And do you at all miss the query deluge? Are you still getting them?

Factor A; Mass culture or as it's come to be known popular culture.

Factor B; Technology, especially digital technology.

Factor C; Convenience and instant gratification.

Factor D; Visible prestige tokens.

Hard copy books fit Factor A because there's a significant minority who will never adapt Factor B. In my neighborhood, six of ten households have Internet connections, the others don't care for it. Seven of ten have cell phones, others don't care for them. One has an e-reader. All have and buy, read, borrow hard copy books.

Factor B will always be progressive, but it's a progress trap. Technology needs growth just like finances and energy and population so stagnation doesn't stifle the survival of the fittest paradigm of biological imperatives. However, what's today's king of the hlll is tomorrow's junk joke.

Factor C will always appeal to a subcultural group driven by Factors A, B, and D. But instant gratification and convenience are the lazy way to live and not conducive to modern survival of the fittest imperatives. Though admittedly, convenience and instant gratification go hand-in-hand with financial survival of the fittest.

Factor D favors hard copy publication. I'm sure a great deal of the Potter saga popularity drove purchase decisions due to Factor A, but didn't result in actual reading for a significant number of possessors. Possession and ostentatious display favors hard copy as token trophy acquisitions to display proudly on bookshelves and carry around so peers and cohorts can admire and envy.

I don't see digital literature cornering more than a minority fraction of the marketplace, a significant minority, sure, but hard copy will predominate because of the above factors.

Optimism from a public figure with experience in the industry is something we writers need to hear.

As exciting as it is to watch our opportunities evolve, it's also more confusing than ever.

The decision whether to take the risk to be at the forefront of a new generation of e-writers, or stay safe and try to be one of the few selected by the ever-diminishing pool of publishers, is one that is becoming increasingly difficult.

As e-books and self-publishing gain acceptance, writers are torn. We're not sure if jumping the traditional publishing ship is going to land us into a lifeboat, or into a leaky canoe, or worse, into the deep waters of anonymity.

We'll continue to watch you and the other beacons of the industry, but ultimately it's up to each of us to decide which harbor is the safest.

Readers and writers of stories should not fear whatever changes come. Because the simple fact - one that tends to get lost in this debate - is that a BOOK is not a STORY, just as a HOUSE is not a HOME. Do you see what I'm saying? It is content that matters - its the love that goes into creating it and the dedication required to create it well.

The amount of people that consistently freak out about too many "bad" stories getting into the market with indie e-publishing continues to baffle me. As if there are no "bad" stories in Barnes and Noble right now? Books published by the big names can have just as many typos and editorial flops as an indie e-book. And here's the really exciting part: those same editors on the horn with the big boys will soon be YOURS to hire, as they go freelance after the diminishing big-name pub house has to cut their workload.

The same talent will be there to help you present your best story in whatever form of a "book" it may take. It may just take a little more work on your end. I say bring it on. This is my DREAM, why wouldn't I want as much control with it as I can possibly get?

Both methods have their pros and cons, and both methods will be here to stay, in my opinion. To discredit one or the other this early in the change is sort of silly.

Here's the key: WRITE A GREAT STORY. WRITE IT WELL and with PASSION. Then worry about how or in what form someone will read it. Remember that there used to be a time when we simply TOLD each other our stories. And that didn't take technology or a publishing house. That just took STORYTELLERS.

Just my two cents. :D

I agree with you, Nathan.

There are several books I've read since getting my kindle that I wouldn't have otherwise read.

I will never give up physical books, but I also love my Kindle. It puts books in front of me I never would have considered before.

In the future, I think being a book worm will not only conjure up the image of a person who wears glasses and carries a library card, but also someone who's holding an e-reader.

I'm excited to read your future posts on this, Nathan.
It might seem like you've done the subject to death already, but you haven't. Things are changing so fast, it's always a good topic to come back to every now and then.

Somehow I like you more as a tech geek than an agent. Not sure why.

LOL, I hadn't considered your jumping ship to the tech world would mean no future in old school books - but now that you bring it up, I'm glad you mentioned it because if I'd thought of it, I'd get scared.

Yes, that is good news to share.

I have to admit, I'm excited to see how the future of books is changing. I think there will always be books in the traditional sense too.

Oh and I asked for a Nook for Christmas. I'm sure hoping I get it--I played with it at the store and it's soooo cool! Plus it's affordable now.

Still, many people are probably going to be hesitant about eBooks, simply because most do not like change. But it's a fact of life and the best thing to do is embrace it!

Good post, Nathan - and timely of you to address any concerns that popped up because you left the industry.

I completely agree with you about the future of books. In this case, deregulation is a good thing, and is opening up many new avenues for books writers and readers. Books have never been more accessible, and publishing outside the establishment had never been a real possiblity for writers before. I love the freedom and the diversity of choice this will provide.

I'm not as optimistic about the current industry surviving in any form. I'm sorry, but I really don't see that happening. I could be wrong, of course. But I think once brick and mortar bookstores fade out, the rest will most likely follow. There is just a reality here, and many people: loggers, truckers, book binders, book sellers, publishing and agenting folks will go through some changes as the technology shifts to digital. This always happens with a new technology - which brings great blessings, but comes at a cost.

But - I do think that individual people will always find their talents and experience still in high demand, in new versions of their old jobs.

I always appreciate your thoughts and perspective. You are a reader, an author, and a former literary agent. And you're pretty darn smart too!

thanks
L.

"Authors have a chance to reach out to their readers like never before, readers have an opportunity to discover books they may not have heard of before, and technology will enable books to be delivered faster and more cheaply than ever before."

Your optimism about the future of books is different than optimism about the future of agents.

Smart man for getting out....

I love technology and Ebooks but, you can't write notes in the margins of an Ebook. Well, at least not on the one that I have. I hope that you're right, because writing is a passion that I have been developing and I would hate when I finally get good at it, the industry tanks.