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By Michael Biggs and Steven Knauss

The BNP’s membership list was leaked in November 2008 by a disgruntled activist who had been expelled late in 2007; he has since admitted responsibility and been convicted. The BNP never challenged the list’s authenticity, merely stating that it was out of date. The list is apparently a complete record of membership at November–December 2007. Of the 13,009 individuals listed, 30 were missing a current address, 138 had a foreign address, and 41 lived in Northern Ireland. Of the remaining members, 12,536 (97.9 per cent) can be precisely located in Britain using the postcode field of their address (Office of National Statistics, 2004, 2008). Postcodes provide exceptionally fine resolution, down to the street level.

The distribution of members diverges significantly from the distribution of voters.  The correlation of votes with membership, across the 628 constituencies in Britain, is surprisingly modest (r ¼ 0.46). The party contested only one in five seats, but the correlation is scarcely higher in those alone. Voting also gives a misleading impression of the national distribution of the party’s support. Wales and Scotland provide over three times the proportion of members compared with voters.

Members must be matched with a population denominator. Data come from the 2001 Census, conducted in April. The great majority of members on the leaked list had joined since this date, as the BNP had 2,173 members in November 2001 (Copsey, 2008: 137). The BNP recruited only ‘indigenous Caucasian’ people (Copsey, 2008: 238). We count adults who defined their ethnicity as ‘White British’, including ‘White Scottish’. The proportion of white British adults belonging to the BNP was 0.032 per cent across Britain.

For statistical analysis, we use the finest geographical unit defined by the Census, the ‘output area’. This is a very small neighbourhood; the median covers an area of 6 hectares and contains 280 people. There are 218,038 neighbourhoods (as they will be termed) in Britain: the BNP was present in 10,165 (4.7 per cent) of them. Most of those had a single member; 11 was the maximum. The highest proportion was 5.7 per cent.

We begin with independent variables capturing economic insecurity. These are measured ecologically, as the fraction of people in the neighbourhood with a particular characteristic, though they are proxies for individual characteristics predicting support for the BNP. Education is divided into three categories: no qualifications, qualifications below university degree, and degree (denominated by people aged 16–74 years). Class is divided into five categories, from routine and semi-routine to managerial and professional (denominated by occupied population). The unemployment rate is also measured (denominated by the economically active). Alongside these sociological staples, housing is included because the BNP promotes the myth that foreigners are given privileged access to public housing. Housing tenure is divided into three categories: owned or mortgaged, rented from the local authority, and private rental (including other arrangements). Overcrowding, as defined by the Census, is also measured. (In both cases the denominator is households.) We expect, then, that white British adults are more likely to belong to the BNP in neighbourhoods with lower education, lower social class, higher unemployment, more private renting, and greater overcrowding. Control variables are entered to reflect findings that BNP voters are disproportionately male and middle aged (Ford and Goodwin, 2010; Cutts et al., 2011). Additional controls are population density and the proportion of people living in communal establishments like prisons.

For Hypotheses 1–3, we defin

Dorothy H. Crawford is a Professor of Medical Microbiology and Assistant Principle for the Public Understanding of Medicine at the University of Edinburgh. Her most recent book, Deadly Companions: How Microbes Shaped Our History, takes us back in time to follow the interlinked history of microbes and man, impressing upon us how a world free of dangerous microbes is an illusion.  In an excerpt this morning we looked at SARS.  The excerpt below looks at the effect of poverty on disease.

It is glaringly obvious from a glance at the figures that poverty is the major cause of microbe-related deaths. On a worldwide scale microbes are still major killers, accounting for one in three of all deaths. But the huge discrepancy in the death rates between rich and poor nations reveals the stark reality. Whereas only 1–2 per cent of all deaths in the West are caused by microbes, this figure rises to over 50 per cent in the poorest nations of the world, and it is in these highly microbe-infected areas where over 95 per cent of the global deaths from infections occur. Most of the 17 million killed by microbes each year are children in developing countries where the link with poverty is clear. It is the poor who are malnourished, live in filthy, overcrowded urban slums and go without clean drinking water or sewage disposal, and therefore they are the ones who fall prey to the killer microbes: HIV, malaria, TB, respiratory infections and diarrhea diseases like cholera, typhoid and rotavirus; all eminently preventable and treatable given the resources.

The spread of HIV is an excellent example of how microbes exploit the poor, striking at the most disadvantaged in the community. The virus emerged in Central Africa and spread silently throughout the continent in the 1970s, given a head start by its long silent incubation period, and aided by despotic leaders, corrupt governments, civil wars, tribal conflicts, droughts and famines. Carried by undisciplined armies and terrorists, the virus infiltrated city slums, infected commercial sex workers, was picked up by migrant workers and passed on to their wives and families. While malnutrition accelerated the onset of AIDs, breakdown of health-care services in the political turmoil of Africa excluded any possibility of medical support for the millions in need.

Now we are living through the worst pandemic the world has ever known, with 40 million living with HIV, 25 million already dead and around 10,000 dying daily—the equivalent of over three 9/11disasters every twenty-four hours. A third of people living in sub-Saharan African cities are HIV-infected, and while highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) has converted this lethal disease into a manageable chronic infection in the West, presently only a tiny proportion of Africans living with HIV receive this treatment; for most there is no hope of obtaining the drugs vital for keeping them alive.

The dynamics of HIV in Africa reflects its mode of spread. As the virus is sexually transmitted gender inequalities mean that women are particularly vulnerable. In general they are poorer and less well educated than their male counterparts, and are often powerless to choose or restrict their sexual partners, or to insist on condom use. Indeed many are forced to exchange sex for essentials like food, shelter and schooling. Now one in four African women are HIV-infected by the age of twenty-two years (compared to one in fourteen men of the same age), and women account for 60 per cent of all those living with HIV.

Over 90 per cent of HIV-positive women in Africa are mothers, and the virus has created 15 million orphans worldwide, 12 million of them in sub-Saharan Africa. These children are bearing the burden of the HIV pandemic; they miss school to care for their sick mothers or to earn the family income; the virus has not only deprived them of their parents but their childhood and their education as well.

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According to http://www.corianton.com/tullyblog/2007/10/georgette-video.html The new Tullycraft album 'Every Scene Needs A Center' officially comes out tomorrow on Magic Marker Records. Today we have a video for the album track, Georgette Plays A Goth. It's about a waitress who occasionally shows up to her posh restaurant shift dressed as a goth. It was illustrated and animated by George Pfromm II.