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Mmmm.  It’s that time again.  The summer is beginning to cool its jets and with fall on the horizon I need to present the third in my yearly four-part prediction series.  What was that fantastic quote Travis Jonker came up with the other day?  Ah, yes.

“Those who have knowledge, don’t predict. Those who predict, don’t have knowledge.” – Lao Tzu

And like Travis, we’re just going to run roughshod over that one.  As ever, I will remind you that my ability to predict these things is a bit on the shoddy side.  You might be better off reading the Mock Newbery and Mock Caldecott lists of Goodreads.  That said, I can give you something those lists can’t: Scintillating commentary!!  Unless you’re reading Heavy Medal or Calling Caldecott (both of which have just started up again).  Then you’ll get commentary from a variety of different voices.  Anyway . . .

Let’s do this thing.

2017 Caldecott Predictions

Ideas Are All Around by Philip Stead

I think I’m going to stick with this one.  Here’s what usually happens when I mention this book on a prediction list.  I say I don’t find it very kid-friendly and then someone responds that they know several kids who love it.  They just happen to be older kids.  One forgets that not all picture books are aimed at three-year-olds.  Stead’s book pushes the boundaries.  It may, in fact, be one of those very rare picture books written for a middle grade audience.  With that in mind, a consideration of the text and image together takes on a different light entirely.

Jazz Day: The Making of a Famous Photograph by Roxane Orgill, ill. Francis Vallejo

Not fish, nor fowl.  Is it nonfiction, narrative nonfiction, poetry, or a picture book?  The Boston Globe-Horn Book Awards placed it squarely in the picture book category (those judges must have been awfully smart, don’t you think, huh huh, don’t you think, huh?) though like Ideas Are All Around it’s for older readers.  A bit of a trend here, eh?  Maybe.  After all, the last few nonfiction Caldecott winners (Finding Winnie, Locomotive, etc.) were on the older side as well.

Miracle Man by John Hendrix

Chant it with me! Jesus, Jesus, Jesus, Jesus!  Now last time I did a prediction edition I mentioned the whole question about whether or not a Jesus book could win a Caldecott anymore (since, y’know, the first 1938 winner was Animals of the Bible).  Now I’ve found out that I’ll get to talk with The Horn Book Podcast soon about religion and children’s literature in the 21st century.  That should help me straighten out my thoughts on the matter.  In the meantime, I’m keeping this one in the mix.  As I mentioned before, it’s the wildest of my Wild Cards, but I think it may have an outside chance.

Radiant Child: The Story of Young Artist Jean-Michel Basquiat by Javaka Steptoe

Speaking of the Horn Book Podcast, there was an interesting discussion the other day with Jules Danielson of the 7-Imp blog about whether or not publishers should include information about how the art was made on the publication page of a picture book.  Roger Sutton was asking if knowledge of how a book is made adjusts your interpretation of the art.  I mentioned this to a friend and they pointed out that in 2016 we’re seeing a crazy amount of eclectic and interesting art in our contenders.  From the found wood of Yuyi Morales’s Rudas: Niño’s Horrendous Hermanitas to the Moroccan influence and mixed media of Evan Turk’s The Storyteller (we’ll get to that) to the found wood (again) of this book, it has never been a better time to get creative with your medium.  And anyway, this book just blew me away.  Technically a bio won the Caldecott last year, but there’s no rule saying it can’t happen repeatedly.  And how awesome would it be for a Steptoe to win the Caldecott again?  Javaka completely deserves it with this book.

Snow White: A Graphic Novel by Matt Phelan

Okay!  So graphic novels have been winning Newberys left, right, and center lately, right?  Which is to say, Newbery Honors.  On the Caldecott side, This One Summer, illustrated by Jillian Tamaki, written by Mariko Tamaki essentially blew our minds when it won a Caldecott Honor two years ago (and it was YA!).  This 1930s reinterpretation of the Snow White story is far younger than Tamaki’s book, and done in an elegant black and white style.  It is, in its own way, very sexy but still child appropriate (I’ll have to review it sometime to figure out how that’s even possible).  Phelan’s never won any Caldecotts that I can tell, but he’s also become more and more accomplished as the years have gone by.  This book would be a risk for the committee, but it would also be a wonderful way of praising Phelan’s evident expertise.

The Storyteller by Evan Turk

Sometimes a Caldecott winner says something about the times in which we live.  Turk’s book talks about the roles stories have in our lives.  It folds a story within a story within a story and then backs out again without tripping up once.  Visually it’s a stunner, with smart writing to match, but more importantly it’s speaking to the times in which we live.  We are desperate for stories these days.  This book speaks not just to that need but the solution.  Aw, heck.  It may even have a chance at a Newbery.  Look at the art when you get a chance, though.  It’s truly beautiful.

Thunder Boy Jr. by Sherman Alexie, ill. Yuyi Morales

This book was already mentioned on Heavy Medal’s Ten Picture Books That Can Win the 2017 Newbery Medal.  On the Caldecott side of the equation it’s already received a Boston Globe-Horn Book Honor.  It’s one of those books where the art slowly grabs you.  There are circles within circles, connections upon connections.  A long discussion of the book yields treasures.  You will see things you missed many times before.

 They All Saw a Cat by Brendan Wenzel

Someone told me recently that this book is scientifically accurate.  If you’re unfamiliar with it, the premise is that a single cat is viewed in a multitude of different ways by different animals.  I haven’t looked into the veracity of this claim yet, but if true then it’s just another feather in the cap of a remarkable title.  Word on the street says that Chronicle paid a pretty penny for the manuscript.  From everything I can see, it was worth it in the end.

2017 Newbery Predictions

Cloud and Wallfish by Anne Nesbet

You know, you guys should really listen to that Horn Book Podcast sometime.  It was Roger Sutton who mentioned this book and piqued my interest in it.  I already had a copy at home since it came with rather peculiar swag.  With the book came two little cut out stencils.  One of a cloud.  One of a whale.  Aside from pitying the poor intern that spent at least a day cutting these out, it did interest me.  Good cover.  Good title.  And Nesbet?  That was the author behind that Cabinet of Earths series, right?  Well I’ve been reading it and on some level it reminded me of The War That Saved My Life.  Not the setting so much as just the pure enjoyment I’ve received while reading it.  Roger said something similar himself.  Nesbet has taken 1989 East Germany and just riddled it with interesting details and great writing.  Y’all have to check this out.

Freedom Over Me: Eleven Slaves, Their Lives and Dreams Brought to Life by Ashley Bryan

It’s been (checks calendar) six days since this book was released.  Have you read it yet?  Have you, have you?  Because I’d really like to talk to somebody about it.  I think 2016 is going to be The Year of Difficult Writing for me.  So many authors are taking risks, doing things no one’s done before, and creating art in the process.  Mr. Bryan is no exception.  I’ve never seen anything quite like what he’s done here.  Naming this book as even an honor would be a powerful statement.

The Inquisitor’s Tale: Or, the Three Magical Children and Their Holy Dog by Adam Gidwitz

I actually did a double take when I reread my Summer Prediction Edition and found, to my shock and horror, that I had not included this book on the list.  I must have read it right after I posted.  In fact, I know I did since three or four readers named it as a top pick.  Whole lotta religion in this one.  And blood and guts too (this is Mr. Gidwitz we’re talking about) but talk about risks!  He’s basically taking Christianity and Judaism and discussing them in a context almost never seen in middle grade historical fiction (fantasy? fiction?).  Gutsy.  Blood and gutsy.

Pax by Sara Pennypacker

Ah, Pax.  Let out of the gate early in 2016 with a huge marketing push to match.  It worked in terms of sales, of course.  This book has already become a New York Times bestseller (no mean feat for a book that isn’t part of a series written by a man whose name rhymes with My Own Pen).  It was the earliest book to garner Newbery buzz as well.  Indeed, there’s a reason Heavy Medal chose it as one of the first books of the year to discuss.  Love it or hate it, there is a LOT to chew on in this novel.  It could either sweep the awards or not even get an Honor nod.  Though, if I were a betting woman, I’d say it’s a clear cut Newbery Honor book.

Presenting Buffalo Bill: The Man Who Invented the Wild West by Candace Fleming

The Newbery is not awarded for difficulty.  If it were, Fleming would be a shoo-in.  Instead, she’s written a middle grade nonfiction biography of a figure forgotten by most kids today.  A biography hasn’t won a Newbery since 1988 (Lincoln, a Photobiography, in case you’re curious).  So the chances of Fleming winning for this book are slim, but I’m a fan of the underdog. The writing is extraordinary, the topic impossible, and the take clever.  We’ll see if the committee agrees.

Raymie Nightingale by Kate DiCamillo

Like Pax, this is one of those shoo-ins for discussion.  Also like Pax it came out early in the year.  Will the committee be burned out by the time they actually get around to discussing it?  Considering how much there is to discuss about the book, not likely.  If it wins the Award proper that will be DiCamillo’s third Newbery Award (not counting Honors).  Something to chew on.

When Green Becomes Tomatoes by Julie Fogliano

Mmm.  Poetry.  Slightly less rare than middle grade biography winners.  After all, verse novels have won.  Monologues done in rhyme have won.  Even straight up books of poetry have, technically, won.  One thing I have learned about this book is that not everybody shares my love of it.  Like humor, the worth of poetry can prove subjective.  Still and all, there’s a groundswell of support for it out there.  One of the loveliest books of the year, by far.

Wolf Hollow by Lauren Wolk

Also known as the book I had to flip to the back of because it became too tense for me not to know how it ended.  They keep comparing it to To Kill a Mockingbird in the ad copy, which I feel is a bit unfair.  Any book compared to Harper Lee’s classic is going to end up with a raw deal.  It’s an interesting take on prejudices and has, by far, the most evil bully in a book I have EVER read.  I wouldn’t call it enjoyable in the same way as the Nesbet book, but it was deeply compelling and beautifully written.

AND NOW . . . THE BOOK THAT IS GOING TO BE SUPER FUN FOR THE NEWBERY COMMITTEE AS THEY TRY TO FIGURE OUT IF IT’S EVEN UP FOR CONTENTION OR NOT . . .

Are You an Echo? The Lost Poetry of Misuzu Kaneko, narrative and translation by David Jacobson, Sally Ito & Michiko Tsuboi

Haven’t heard of it?  I bet not.  I have not yet begun to sing its praises on this blog, having just read it, but this is without a doubt one of the most amazing books of the year.

Now this should be an open and shut case of a book that simply can’t be a Newbery contender.  See how I mentioned that there was a translator or two involved in this book?  Right.  Books eligible for the Newbery must have originally been published in the United States.  Case closed, right?  Maybe not.  This book is about the life of a celebrated Japanese poet for children who was rediscovered not long ago, and became famous thanks in large part to one of her poems circulating after the tsunami of 2011.  It pulls no punches and reproduces original translations of her poems throughout the text.

So the book itself was originally published in the States, right?  But the poetry spotted throughout the book comes from a Japanese anthology of Kaneko’s works.  What this means is that even if the poetry has never been translated in this way before, technically the poems have been translated overseas before and therefore the book is not a Newbery contender.  I think.  If true this is a pity since I truly believe that anyone who reads this book will be utterly blown away by what they find inside.  In any case, the author of the poetry is dead and I believe that may be an impediment to its Newbery qualifications as well.  Ah well.  Check it out when you get a chance.  It’s really quite remarkable.

Okay, folks!  Lemme have it!  What did I miss?

Fickle little me. Titles appear. Titles disappear. Many of the books I placed on my Spring 2017 predictions list are gone by June, and what has changed?  Aren’t the books as wonderful now as they were when I originally propped them up?  Of course they are, but I’ve done enough book discussions in the intervening months that I feel as if I’ve a better grasp on what’s a contender.  Not that my track record is by any means perfect.  These are, as ever, just my professional opinion.  And I may have gone a little crazy with the Caldecott predictions this time around . . .

Be sure to check out the 100 Scope Notes post on books that Goodreads readers think have a real shot too.

2017 Caldecott Predictions

Thunder Boy Jr. by Sherman Alexie, ill. Yuyi Morales

I read this one a long time ago and liked it just fine.  Personally, it wasn’t hitting me in the same way as Yuyi’s previous two books had, but I certainly enjoyed the spirit and energy and sheer love coming off the pages.  Then I talked about it with a bunch of other librarians and when we sat down and looked at those images, one after another, and discussed how one leads to another and how well Yuyi is able to convey familial affection with just the simplest of movements . . . well, I’m sold.  In fact, I may have just been convinced that this is her best book yet.

Du Iz Tak? by Carson Ellis

Unlike many of my honored colleagues, I’m pretty darn neutral on Ellis. As a person she’s sweet as peaches on the vine but her art has never left me feeling warm and snuggly.  Now those of you who know me know that I’ve a weakness for weirdness.  Dark horse medal contenders are my favorites.  All the more reason that I should incline towards this strange, silly, downright odd little tale of bugs speaking their own (very comprehensible) language and the flower that inspires them.  I’ve read this book many times to my own kids and I can honestly say that it’s a perfect combination of luscious, lovely, occasionally terrifying art and kid-friendly storylines.

This House Once by Deborah Freedman

Dude, I was into Freedman when Scribble came out.  When I saw that book I remember thinking to myself, “This lady’s got something to her.  By gum, she’s going places!”  And yes.  I do actually use phrases like “by gum” in my head.  I’ve also been known to substitute it for “golly”, “gee willikers”, and “well slap my face and call me Bertha.”  But I digress.  I’m still parsing my thoughts on this book, which is both like every Freedman book you’ve ever seen and is vastly different from them all.  Worth thinking about.

Miracle Man by John Hendrix

I mean, I put it to you. Can a Jesus book win a Caldecott in the 21st century?  Considering that the 1938 Medal Winner, which is to say the very first Caldecott ever given out, went to Animals of the Bible, A Picture Book, I’d say there was a precedent.  This is another wild card, and I don’t envy the Caldecott committee this discussion.  It’s hard to not to be in awe of Hendrix’s typography alone.

Before Morning by Joyce Sidman, ill. Beth Krommes

Do you do that thing I do where if a person has won a Newbery or Caldecott Medal (not Honor) before then you sort of give them second billing when thinking about future award winners?  I do that all the time, but when you see a book as gorgeous as this one you put all that aside.  In this hot June month, something as lovely, cool, and refreshing as this snowbound wonder book is of infinite relief.  Krommes outdoes herself here, and the emotional beats of the book thump strong.  Is that a phrase?  I’m keeping it in.

The Uncorker of Ocean Bottles by Michelle Cuevas, ill. Erin E. Stead

Mmm. Deceptively simple, this one.  Like Krommes, Stead already has a nice and shiny Caldecott Medal under her belt.  I had the pleasure of hearing Cuevas and Stead discussing this book during Day of Dialog at Book Expo this year.  Here’s a fun game: Read the text without looking at the pictures.  You might get an entirely different view of the proceedings.  Stead’s mark is so strong and her images so beautiful that it may contribute heavily to the book’s potential win.  We shall see.

Ideas Are All Around by Philip Stead

Mind you, he has another book out this year (Samson in the Snow) and it wouldn’t surprise me even a hundredth of a jot if he won the Caldecott for that instead.  This is Mr. Stead’s hoity-er toity-er offering.  Beautiful, no question.  But a touch on the esoteric side.

Radiant Child: The Story of Young Artist Jean-Michel Basquiat by Javaka Steptoe

I have been waiting for this book for approximately five years.  Little, Brown & Co. is sick to death of me asking, “This year?  How ’bout this year?  Is it coming out this year?”  To see the art in person floors you.  Steptoe painted entirely on found wood and the storytelling of Basquiat himself is sublime.  This is one of my top picks, no question at all.  You are in for such a treat when you read it!!!

The Storyteller by Evan Turk

GAH!!  So good!  So very very very very good.  I’m not going to railroad you with reasons.  Just read my review if you’re curious.

Jazz Day: The Making of a Famous Photograph by Roxane Orgill, ill. Francis Vallejo

Winner of the Boston Globe-Horn Book Award for Picture Books, as awarded by a clearly BRILLIANT committee *cough cough*.  Vallejo is a first timer here, but you’d never know it from the art.  As I’ve mentioned before, the book doesn’t slot into any categories very easily.  Hopefully the committee will recognize the art for what it is – extraordinary and distinguished.

 They All Saw a Cat by Brendan Wenzel

And, the winner.  Done.  Nothing more to see here, folks.

I’m sorry . . . you’ve not seen this one?  Oh.  Well, it’s quite simple.  Wenzel has created the Caldecott winner for 2017.  Don’t know what’s confusing about that.  You’ll understand when you see it for yourself.  I don’t want to call it self-explanatory.  Let’s just say, it’s a bit of a given.

Freedom in Congo Square by Carol Boston Weatherford, ill. R. Gregory Christie

Like Yuyi’s book, it took me a little while to come around to this one.  Christie’s art changes subtly from book to book.  Here, he appears to be channeling the ghost of Jacob Lawrence.  That’s a good thing.  An amazing solution to rendering slavery and its horrors accurately but still in a way that’s friendly to kids on the younger end of the education scale.  After you read this one, you just gotta dance.

2017 Newbery Predictions

My Newbery reads continue to lag vs. my Caldecott reads (picture books are just easier to read quickly!).  Fortunately, I’ve been lucky in what’s crossed my plate.  If the jury would be so good as to consider . . .

The Wild Robot by Peter Brown

A long shot, no question.  Its potential relies entirely on the kinds of readers you’ll find on the Newbery committee this year.  This book requires one to stretch their incredulity from time to time.  If you can do so, the rewards are vast.  Such a good bedtime book.  It would be a joy to see this make the list.

Freedom Over Me: Eleven Slaves, Their Lives and Dreams Brought to Life by Ashley Bryan

I call this one Simon & Schuster’s Secret Weapon.  But don’t take my word for it.  Read this brief plot description for yourself: “Using original slave auction and plantation estate documents, Ashley Bryan offers a moving and powerful picture book that contrasts the monetary value of a slave with the priceless value of life experiences and dreams that a slave owner could never take away.”  Only it’s even better than that.  Bryan is doing something completely new here and the writing is perfect.  Don’t count this one out.  I think it has some real legs.

Raymie Nightingale by Kate DiCamillo

It’s good.  Deeply sad (a theme in 2016) but an honest-to-goodness page turner.  I reviewed it here but I’m still parsing it in my mind.  There is a LOT to chew on in these scant little pages.

When Green Becomes Tomatoes by Julie Fogliano

Poor poetry.  I’ll be your friend.  This is a book where the poems start off sounding pretty rote (this is hardly the first poetry-for-every-season-of-the-year book in the world) but then you get sucked into Fogliano’s writing.  I like the art just fine, but the text is the true star of the show.  You may read my review here if you’re curious.

Full of Beans by Jennifer L. Holm

Here’s a fun quiz question for you: Has a prequel to a Newbery Honor ever won a Newbery itself?  If this book continues Holm’s winning streak we may get our answer.  Mind you, Holm has never won herself a Newbery Award proper.  This wouldn’t be a bad book to do so.  Just saying.

Pax by Sara Pennypacker

We had our Pax push and even a Pax backlash, so at this point I think we’re ahead of the game.  Clearly this book has legs and a LOT of people discussing it.  I think it continues to be one of the strongest contenders.  A book that could only be tossed out on a technicality.

Samurai Rising: The Epic Life of Minamoto Yoshitsune by Pamela Turner, ill. Gareth Hinds

YES!  What’s that line from The Princess Bride?  “Fencing, fighting, torture, revenge, giants, monsters, chases, escapes, true love, miracles…”  Not so many giants and monsters in this and the true love . . . well, you could make a case for it.  Otherwise, I think we’re pretty close.  Bloody but upbeat, that’s for sure.  You can read my review of it here.

Wolf’s Hollow by Lauren Wolk

Originally written as an adult novel, this book was turned into one for kids with very little touches and tweaks.  It’s not an easy read, but it’s a very strong one.  I could see it going head to head with all the other major contenders.  Better go out and read it when you get a chance.  My review is here.

And that’s all she copiously wrote!  What have I missed?  Spill it.  I know there’s a gap in there somewhere a mile wide.

What?  Who?  Now?  Yes, if you’re checking the calendar you’ll see that three whole months of 2016 have gone by and you know what that means.  Prediction time!

But Betsy, you say, that is quite simply the kookiest thing I’ve ever heard. It’s March, for crying out loud.  We’ve ten months until the next award announcement.  And all this is true.  And it is loopy to the extreme that I’m doing this.  Particularly when you consider my track record.  To date:

2008 spring predictions: I get one Caldecott right (How I Learned Geography)

2009 spring predictions: I get two Newberys right (The Evolution of Calpurnia Tate and The (Mostly) True Adventures of Homer P Figg)

2010 spring predictions: I get one Newbery right (One Crazy Summer)

2011 spring predictions: I get one Newbery right (Inside Out and Back Again)

2012 spring predictions: I get two Newberys right (The One and Only Ivan and Splendors and Glooms), and one Caldecott right (Green).

2013 spring predictions: I get two Newberys right (Doll Bones and One Came Home) and one Caldecott right (Mr. Wuffles).  But pride goeth before the fall.

2014 spring predictions: Zip. Zero. Zilch.

2015 spring predictions: I get two Newberys right (Echo and The War That Saved My Life)

The thing is, if I’d gotten Zip. Zero. Zilch. this time last year I might have given up the fun prediction game altogether.  But this isn’t really about accurate predictions, is it?  I mean, check out last year’s first listed Caldecott contender.  WHOOPSIE!  No, it’s about pinpointing the books that everyone should be talking about because they’re such great titles.

Now due to a new job where I’m not commuting to work every day (the hour train ride has turned into a sweet 20 minute walk) combined with my participation on the Boston Globe-Horn Book Award committee for 2016, I am not reading as many middle grade novels as I usually would.  I have made up for that by reading every picture book I get sent.  So you may see that I’ve a better grasp on Caldecott than Newbery this year.  Case in point:

2017 Caldecott Predictions

Maybe Something Beautiful: How Art Transformed a Neighborhood by F. Isabel Campoy & Theresa Howell, ill. Rafael Lopez

See this here in my hand here?  This sign that says, “Rafael Lopez for Caldecott”?  I’m carrying it because sometimes it feels like every year I tout him as a real Caldecott contender (Drum Dream Girl had in in the bag, man!) and every year he slips through my fingers.  Well not this year.  This book (based on something he actually went out and did) is beautiful, socially conscious, and a title that kids actually enjoy reading multiple times.  I feel it this time!  It’s his year!

There Is a Tribe of Kids by Lane Smith

Smith hasn’t won a Caldecott since his Honor for Grandpa Green, but you could argue that this was because he wasn’t really putting his back into it.  This book (in 2016 alone there are four different books on collective nouns, did you know?) takes an esoteric idea and weaves it into a story about finding your tribe, both literally and figuratively.  This is a softer Smith than we usually see, and it may yield great dividends in the future.

Ideas Are All Around by Philip Stead

If any book could do a little tap dance while singing the words, “Cal-de-cott, Cal-de-cott, nothing could be finer“, it would be this one.  It is also THE most esoteric picture book on this list.  It will probably receive criticism for seemingly speaking more to adults than children, but the art really is distinguished.  If anything this feels like a picture book from another country (I’m reminded of the works of Stian Hole in particular).  I’ll be interested in following the conversation surrounding this one in the future.

Cricket Song by Anne Hunter

My wild card.  There are probably a couple wild cards on this list, but this one is subtle.  The author/illustrator splits the visual narrative into two distinct parts while pairing these images with a soothing text.  It’s a bedtime book in the classic sense but a clever one.  It also has a fox on the cover which, if you haven’t heard it before, is the unofficial animal of children’s books published in 2016.

The Storyteller by Evan Turk

I’ve already talked at great length about this one but I’d be more than happy to talk about it some more!  Turk’s still new in this field.  He is at the start of his career in children’s books, but the time and the care and the attention and the sheer beauty found in this book is jaw-dropping.  Paired with a brilliant text to match, it has a lot to say about what the role of oral storytelling is in the electronic age.  Big themes.  Brilliant book.

Jazz Day: The Making of a Famous Photograph by Roxane Orgill, ill. Francis Vallejo

And speaking of brilliant books, meet Francis Vellejo.  Debut illustrator, and hopefully the man is currently fending off job offers from all the major publishing houses.  Vellejo brings to life a text that could have floundered in the hands of a less adept illustrator.  Plus, as a woman who majored in college in Art with a concentration in Photography, any Caldecott contender that uses photography in some way has my instant and abiding love. Hopefully the use of photographs published in some other form prior to this book’s publication won’t disqualify it from contention.

One Day in the Eucalyptus Eucalyptus Tree by Daniel Bernstrom, ill. by Brendan Wenzel

Wenzel’s a fellow to watch in 2016.  He has several books coming out this year and each one is clever.  If I were to bet on just one I might look to this.  Naturally if there were any justice then author Daniel Bernstrom would win something for the rhythmic text here.  In lieu of that, Wenzel’s art is a fabulous complement to the twist on the Old Lady Who Swallowed a Fly motif.  Besides, who doesn’t want to see vomiting snakes?

2017 Newbery Predictions

I shall direct you to the Heavy Medal 2017 Newbery Reading List, since what I have here today is fairly small in comparison.  I’m only really going to mention the books that I am certain have a strong fighting chance this early in the game.  These would be:

Raymie Nightingale by Kate DiCamillo

So I turn to a friend of mine the other day and I ask her to give it to me straight.  “The latest Kate DiCamillo”, I say.  “Is it . . . meaningful?”  You see, I do very well with DiCamillo books when they involve pummeling carnies with errant baseballs, sweet talking toothless horses, or vacuuming up squirrels (to say nothing of giant donuts).  I do far less well when her books make a grab at the old heartstrings.  My friend assured me that while the book does not lack for heart, she was certain I would love it.  And, since we’re talking DiCamillo here, there’s no one in the world who would argue that it’s not a serious contender in 2017.

Pax by Sara Pennypacker, ill. Jon Klassen

DiCamillo aside, if we had to talk about the book that is managing to get the most Newbery buzz the earliest in the year, Pax is where it’s at.  I received a galley of Pax at the same time that I received a galley of The Nest by Kenneth Oppel last year.  Both books were illustrated by Klassen and I couldn’t help but think that the man had exquisite taste in manuscripts.  Since I had lobbied hard for Pennypacker to get some medal action years ago for her Summer of the Gypsy Moths, I feel this is an honor long since due.

Samurai Rising: The Epic Life of Minamoto Yoshitsune by Pamela Turner, ill. Gareth Hinds

So. Friggin’. Awesome.  Weirdly appropriate for the Newbery too, age-wise.  In spite of the fact that this is basically the Samurai version of Game of Thrones (something they mention in the ad copy for this book) the blood and guts aren’t visceral.  Instead you get an amazing examination of the world’s most famous Samurai warrior.  It’s nonfiction and Turner’s backmatter is nothing short of jaw-dropping.

There are some notable books that haven’t been mentioned here, but I want to hear from you.  What’s blowing you away this year?  What can’t you stop talking about?

See this money?  It’s time to put it where my mouth is.  OPEN UP, MOUTH!

So if you’re playing along at home you might have noticed that I’m a bit . . . ah . . . last minute-ish with my final predictions this year.  Considering that today is Thursday and the Newbery/Caldecott Awards (amongst other Youth Media Awards) will be announced this Monday at 8 a.m. EST (and viewable here), I’m positively late.

Ah well.  Life, it has a way of interrupting your best laid plans.  In any case, I’m ready now.  And before I forget, I should mention that if you’ve any interest in killing time before the ALA Awards on Monday, why not tune in for my Pre-Game Show beforehand?  I’ll be livestreaming my thoughts on the possible winners.  Then you can come back for the Post-Game Show where I kvetch, cheer, and generally make a fool of myself while my 19-month-old son wails outside my office door, wondering why his mommy isn’t sticking to her usual routine that morning.  Or I may pull him into the room to meet you.  I’m not above bribing you to watch.  Alas, my delightful co-host Lori will not be joining me this year, so it’s just l’il ole me. And maybe a baby.

And for those of you interested in what other people around the country are interested in winning, be sure to check out ALSC’s collection of Mock Elections here.

All right.  Enough of that.  Here are my final predictions.  As ever, I’d like to point out that with the possible exception of 2008, I almost never get these predictions right.  I go with my gut but my guts are fickle and can be bribed with donuts.

Onward.

Caldecott Award

Winner:

Last Stop on Market Street by Matt de la Pena. Illustrated by Christian Robinson

If there’s any theme behind my choices this year, it’s that they’re not very original.  Every other Mock Caldecott in the country has been talking about this book, and well that they should.  To my mind, this book has a very good chance if only because the time is right for it.  Look at the Caldecott Award winners of the past.  Books that speak to the times in which we live win the awards.  Whether intentional or not, the Caldecott committee is going to say something with their choice about what “distinguished” means.  In my recent article about the trends of 2015 and 2016 I mentioned that you cannot look at the debates sweeping the children’s literature landscape without considering the greater picture.  And the greater picture, as I see it, dictates that we need more diversity not just in the racial make-up of our authors, illustrators, and subject matter, but also in economic realities.  This book is beautiful, well-written, and does something I haven’t seen since Ezra Jack Keats: It makes the urban landscape beautiful.  The time for this book is now.  It’s my pick as winner.

Honors: In a Village By the Sea by Muon Van. Illustrated by April Chu

The Beach Boys song “Wouldn’t It Be Nice” is playing in my head right now.  Because it would be nice if this book got an Honor.  Nice for the author and illustrator.  Nice for the small publisher from which it hails.  Nice to see a wordless book get some love.  It’s a dark horse contender, I think, but I wouldn’t count it out.

Honors: Drum Dream Girl: How One Girl’s Courage Changed Music by Margarita Engle. Illustrated by Rafael Lopez

Rafael Lopez is long overdue for a Caldecott in some kind of form.  This isn’t to say that he’ll necessarily get the Honor he deserves (and heck, he might get an Award proper!) but it makes me think that there’s a chance that someone on the committee will harbor affections for this book in the secret recesses of their heart.

Newbery Award

Since last year the Caldecott had a ton of Honors, I’d like to think that with the strong contenders of written works in 2016, there might be room for a plethora of these instead.

Winner:

The Hired Girl by Laura Amy Schlitz

Though it was considered contentious earlier this year, one cannot help but notice that things are different for The Hired Girl these days.  People came to it in the midst of the debate and discovered that it was beautifully written.  Other folks who might not have picked it up did so and found that they loved it.  Support swelled, it appeared on the New York Times YA bestseller list a week or two ago, and everything culminated in yesterday’s Scott O’Dell Award announcement.  I’ve been watching all of this, and just as I feel that Last Stop on Market Street speaks to our current time and place, so too does The Hired Girl, only it represents a novel’s ability to become a focal point for a debate that extends far beyond itself.  At its heart, The Hired Girl is distinguished.  It could easily take away the award by itself.

Honors:

The War that Saved My Life by Kimberly Brubaker Bradley

The year’s most surprising popular favorite.  Not that I was particularly surprised myself.  I’d been plugging away for Jefferson’s Sons, Ms. Bradley’s previous book, to take away the prize years ago.  This may get bupkiss too (popularity by no means assures success in the award field) but at least a LOT of people read it that might not have otherwise.

Honors: Most Dangerous by Steve Sheinkin

Surprise!!  First time this one has made any of my prediction lists.  Why the switcheroo?  Um . . . well, I actually sat down and read it.  Boy howdy, is it good.  Tackling, in some ways, a subject far more complex than BOMB (his previous award winner) I could easily see this carrying a bunch of different awards from a bunch of different categories.  And, as with many books mentioned today, it’s hugely timely.

Honors: Echo by Pam Munoz Ryan

I’ve gone back and forth on this one for a while.  On the one hand, there’s something about this book that sears into your brain and takes up residency in your frontal lobe.  On the other hand, the connecting fantasy element is entirely superfluous.  At the end of the day, I think the distinguished merit (which it exudes from every pore) outweighs any concerns I might have.  It’s not a given, but it’s a strong contender.

Honors: Gone Crazy in Alabama by Rita Williams-Garcia

As I mentioned in a previous prediction post, this book took a while to percolate in my brain.  It was only after I talked it over with folks and thought long and hard about it that I realized it had a very strong shot at an award of some sort.  It could easily take home the gold medal proper, by the way.  We shall see what we shall see.

Phew!  That’s all from me.  Now go and catch your flights to Boston and tell me how everything is while you’re there.

Around this time of year people start discussing what kind of a publishing year it has become.  Is this a strong year for picture books?  A weak year for nonfiction?  An unusually peculiar year for fiction?  It’s all based on personal assessments, containing little to no empirical evidence one way or another, culminating, in the end, in personal opinions.  Of which I’ve a mint!

So, from my sole, solitary standpoint, 2015 is shaping up to be . . . well, it’s fine.  There really haven’t been that many late breaking hits.  The books the publishers assumed would be hits became hits (though maybe not to the degree that they’d like in some cases).  The books they thought would get critical acclaim have gotten critical acclaim, again to varying degrees.  But nothing I’ve seen discussed thus far is all that different from what I saw back in April.  Envelopes are not being pushed one way or another in particular.  If I’ve seen any trend it’s for YA nonfiction that clearly behooves the adult reader.

So today you’ll only see a couple changes from the spring edition and the summer edition of this prediction list.  The Calling Caldecott site is up and running by this point, as is the delightful Heavy Medal, so you may wish to get alternative opinions on these matters.  In the meantime, my list so far . . .

2016 Caldecott Predictions:

Drum Dream Girl: How One Girl’s Courage Changed Music by Margarita Engle. Illustrated by Rafael Lopez

Beauty should be rewarded.  And Mr. Lopez has not gotten his just rewards in this respect.  To be fair, it’s difficult to say whether or not any of the books he’s done thus far have contained Caldecott-worthy subject matter.  I think we can all agree that when you add Lopez’s art to Engle’s writing, the results deserve as many of those bloody starred reviews as possible.  And maybe a couple of those shiny round medals too.

Finding Winnie: The True Story of the World’s Most Famous Bear by Lindsay Mattick. Illustrated by Sophie Blackall

That Ms. Blackall has never won a Caldecott seems to me a bit of an oddity.  And consider the pedigree of this book.  It’s about an animal that inspired one of the great characters in children’s literature.  Lovely writing (which I found rather clever in its construction) alongside pitch perfect art.  The tone, man, the tone!  Can we talk about tone?  Can we talk about the fact that there is a feeling of calm and peace that emanates from the pages?  Give it something shiny, for the love of all that’s good and holy!

In a Village By the Sea by Muon Van. Illustrated by April Chu

You know, I started out by saying it was a dark horse contender but the more I look at it and the more buzz it receives, I think I’m actually on to something here. Chu’s a debut illustrator and this book is so smartly done.  I still haven’t seen the work she’s done on Ada Byron Lovelace and the Thinking Machine, but give it time.  This artist is going places.

Last Stop on Market Street by Matt de la Pena. Illustrated by Christian Robinson

I’ve been getting the title mixed up in my brain recently.  And to Think I Saw it On Market Street . . . no . . . no, that’s not it.  Or was it On Market Street?  No . . . no . . . still not right.  I know Chronicle managed to grab the wheel of the Christian Robinson conversation and put all the attention on that Mac Barnett book he did (which is, let’s all admit it, perfectly nice) but if you’re talking award contenders then this is the one to discuss.  You get whiffs of Ezra Jack Keats off the pages as you turn them.  That ain’t nothing.

The Marvels written & illustrated by Brian Selznick

That image of the baby.  Need I say more?  Those of you who read the book will understand.  Baby.  I’m out!  *drops the mic*

The Moon Is Going to Addy’s House by Ida Pearle

I’m bloody standing by this one.  I just get sort of tangled up in my own emotions when I encounter artists that can capture physical movement with mere snips of their scissors.  The fact that the papers themselves are beautifully made doesn’t hurt, but I really like how the story is told, the relationship between the characters, and the overall package.  Moon. Sisters.  Bedtime.

Night World by Mordecai Gerstein

Another night book.  Gerstein at his best attempting to capture whatever the opposite of “magic hour” is called.  The nice thing about Mr. Gerstein is that you don’t have to spend a lot of time discussing him.  He simply is the best.

Water Is Water by Miranda Paul. Illustrated by Jason Chin

Like a lot of children’s librarians I keep a little list of “Never Won a Caldecott But Shoulda” contenders in my back pocket.  And if I were to rank them, Mr. Chin would be somewhere high up on the list.  Until now his books have been his own.  Here he combines with a different author and for all its simplicity it may well be his best work.  He does such lovely things with mist.  I shall say no more.

Float by Daniel Miyares

Back on the list by popular demand!  Popular demand = people actually really enjoying it.  When I mentioned this book on my spring list I was left wondering if I was the only person who saw real potential in it.  Now I know I’m not alone.  Miyares manages to not only capture a kind of cloudy light found only on overcast days, but the relationship between the boy and his father is so beautifully rendered (wordlessly at that!) that you can’t help but adore the end product.

Fire Engine No. 9 by Mike Austin

Betcha didn’t see THAT one coming!  Ha ha!  It’s not like we haven’t seen Mike Austin books before. You may even see this book and think “Oh great.  Another firefighter book.”  But that’s where you’re wrong, bucko.  This is a great book.  It’s an onomatopoeiaic (not a word) extravaganza.  All the sounds of the fire engine with a classic look (it’s been compared to the work of Donald Crews) and a contemporary feel.

Waiting by Kevin Henkes

Betcha saw THAT one coming!  I kid, but you did, didn’t you?  Everyone did.  Everyone has.  Quiet Henkes at his best.  I think I called it “Waiting for Godot . . . for Kidz!” once, which I’ll stand by.  That said, it’s lovely and a child would actually find its static lack of action interesting.  It’s probably a great big metaphor anyway and we all know how much librarians adore metaphors.  So maybe maybe . . .

And now we move on to the,

2016 Newbery Predictions:

Usually I’m able to determine potential Newbery winners far easier than Caldecotts.  This year is different.  I’m having a great deal of difficulty with the Newbery slots, whereas the Caldecotts (as you can see) just keep on coming.  Still, here are with the ones that I continue to like and some I have newly discovered.

Circus Mirandus by Cassie Beasley

Hm. I think it holds up. Granted my early impressions were tempered by low expectations. Someone referred to it as the “Snicker of Magic of 2015″ but I don’t get that vibe from it.  I think I may need to reread it, though.  Best villain of the year, in any case.

Echo by Pam Munoz Ryan

Jonathan Hunt at Heavy Medals did some good pondering on this book so go thee hence and read what he has to say.  Personally I found two of the stories far stronger than the third, and I found the magical element entirely superfluous.  Yet I don’t think these objects make it any less “distinguished”.  Interesting, isn’t it, how a tiny detail can sink some books in a reviewer’s eye while massive writing choices can be critiqued but the book remains strong just the same.  Hm.

Gone Crazy in Alabama by Rita Williams-Garcia

Recently Rita Williams-Garcia sat down with Jeanne Birdsall to discuss their series and how they write for sisters.  And certainly the sisters in this book are its strongest element.  Now the first time I read this book, I wasn’t sure if it stood up for me.  I was confused by the great-grandmother’s tiff with her sister and if the book stood alone.  This is why I sometimes feel bad for books with a late fall release schedule.  As time goes by you have the ability to step back and process a book.  To return to it and synthesize it and determine what truly did and didn’t work.  In the end, I found that this book stands on its own (or so my fellow librarians tell me) and that the ending is gut punch powerful.  In short, it works.  You can see my recent interview with Ms. Williams-Garcia here (but only if you want to know what she’s working on next).

Goodbye, Stranger by Rebecca Stead

This was one of the books I felt truly baffled wasn’t nominated for the National Book Awards this year.  To be honest though, children’s books didn’t make a strong showing in 2015 in general.  It was all YA, YA, YA with two sole exceptions.  A pity since this book straddles children’s books and YA titles so successfully and yet it will struggle forever to find its home on library shelves. Which section should it go into?  I say juv.  I love what Stead’s done here and feel it’s a return to form.

The War that Saved My Life by Kimberly Brubaker Bradley

I’m so very pleased that everyone likes this book.  And that everyone who walks into it with a skeptical eye walks away nodding slowly.  Yes indeed.  Strong writing that doesn’t pander.  Big differing opinions on the book jacket, of course, but you can’t have everything in life.  It was released VERY early in the year which may hurt its overall chances but I feel it has the chutzpah to carry through until the finish line.  Go, team, go!

A Nearer Moon by Melanie Crowder

My new dark horse contender.  I thought I’d be so sneaky to put it here but I see that it’s already been mentioned by a perceptive reader in the Heavy Medals comments.  I was rather shocked that this slim little book was as beautifully written as it was.  There is a great art to writing a short book for kids.  I feel like the longer you go, the more you pad the story out.  But Crowder (a master in her own right) keeps it “handsome” as my movie friends like to say.  And in this post-Frozen world of ours, the theme of sisterly love is fascinating.  It’s like a darker version of Rossetti’s Goblin Market or something.  I still need to process it fully but it’s good.  Very good.

The Hired Girl by Laura Amy Schlitz

Because it’s one of the best books of the year.  Period.  I may be giving away my review of it, but I very much feel that this is a book that only Candlewick would have published and only Laura Amy Schlitz could have written.  It is the book for the kid who says “I loved Anne of Green Gables and Little Women. Do you have anything like that but that just came out?”  Because the answer is almost always no.  No, they just don’t make books like those anymore.  Books about 14-year-old girls that just pulsate with that age’s bizarre combination of worldliness, uncertainty, and downright childishness.  I’ll stop myself now.  It’s hugely distinguished.  FYI.

And yourself?  What do you feel burns bright with distinction and joy?

The Summer Prediction edition of my Caldecott/Newbery ponderings is always a tricky beast.  If the spring edition is looking primarily at books coming out in the spring, summer, and early fall, then the summer edition is looking at almost the entire year. However, at this point I’m still relying more on buzz than the considered opinions of colleagues and friends.  Once we get to the fall edition I’ll have heard a lot of debates surrounding the books up for consideration and I’ll have a better sense of what folks feel about them.  Until then, here’s what I’ve seen this year that I think deserves a closer look.

2016 Caldecott Predictions:

Boats for Papa by Jessixa Bagley

So this is a bit of a strange inclusion on my part, but you’ll get a hint of the background on this book from this recent Seven Impossible Things profile of the book and Ms. Bagley.

Here is my thinking on the matter.  When we hand a book a Caldecott, we say we’re doing it to celebrate the art.  I understand that.  I get that.  But if we’re being honest, the books that win are the ones that really reached into our chests, grabbed our hearts, and had the gall to make them pump a little harder.  Boats for Papa has the 2015 distinction of being The Official Weeper of the Year.  Which is to say, it makes folks cry.  A lot.  And YET it is not a Love You Forever situation where the writing is clearly for adults rather than kids.  So Ms. Bagley is to be commended for the text.  The artistic style, I admit here and now, is not for me.  But when you are a children’s librarian you must let go of your own personal prejudices towards one style of art or another (if I had my way every Caldecott would go to Sebastian Meschmenmoser, regardless of citizenship or whether or not he has a book out in a given year).  And while the style of Ms. Bagley is not to my own taste, I believe that in terms of conveying the storyline, the characters, and the heart of the writing, it does a stellar job.  Still, I’d be interested to hear how other feel about it all.

Drum Dream Girl: How One Girl’s Courage Changed Music by Margarita Engle. Illustrated by Rafael Lopez

This is the book I most regretted not mentioning the last time I did a prediction post.  I’ve admired Mr. Lopez’s work for years (and honestly feel that The Cazuela That the Farm Maiden Stirred deserved far more attention than it ever received).  This book is one of those tricky little amalgamations of fact and fiction that will end up in the picture book section of the library while still managing to be CCSS aligned, to some degree.  I read it to my three-year-old and she was astonished at the idea that girls could ever be told they couldn’t do anything.  Plus it’s just so beautiful.  The art is the man’s best work.  I’d love to see this get a little attention.

Finding Winnie: The True Story of the World’s Most Famous Bear by Lindsay Mattick. Illustrated by Sophie Blackall

A straighter nonfiction title.  Sometimes I wonder if the amount of background a Caldecott committee hears about a book affects their thinking come award time.  Perhaps not.  After all, I once attended a pre-ALA Youth Media Award lunch that feted some Caldecott committee members and was showing off books like Mr. Tiger Goes Wild, The Dark, and Pinkney’s The Grasshopper and the Ants.  None of whom won a thing.  Now if you knew the background behind Ms. Blackall’s art for Finding Winnie, you’d see how meticulous her work is on the book.  Yet even without that knowledge the book is a beauty.  The endpapers.  The red sunrise with the ships sailing to England.  The shot of a man, his bear, and Stonehenge itself.  Oh, it’s a contender.

In a Village By the Sea by Muon Van. Illustrated by April Chu

Periodically debut illustrators receive Honors (and, once in a great while, awards proper).  I know I keep harping on this book but I just think what the illustrator did to complement the text is just so darn brilliant.  It rewards multiple readings.  Sure, it may be a dark horse contender, but it’s a strong one just the same.

Last Stop on Market Street by Matt de la Pena. Illustrated by Christian Robinson

It was a little surprising to me how many marketing dollars were placed behind this particular book.  Robinson has traipsed mighty close to award territory in the past.  With this book he may not be paying a direct homage to Ezra Jack Keats but that was certainly the flavor I detected emanating from the pages.  Even after all these months of seeing it I’m still having difficulty piecing my thoughts about it together.  All I know is that it’s worthy of discussion.

The Marvels written & illustrated by Brian Selznick

This could just as easily fit on the Newbery Prediction category but since Hugo Cabret won a Caldecott lo these many years ago, this could walk a similar line.  Separating itself into a wordless series of pictures in its first half and a text only novel in the second, it may be an even harder sell to the committee than Cabret was.  Particularly since the text both within and outside of the pictures is sometimes the only thing that gives them form and function and meaning.  But it’s rather remarkable, and committees have a way of rewarding books for that very quality.

The Moon Is Going to Addy’s House by Ida Pearle

Cut paper is a difficult art.  Again, we’ve a debut on our hands, and in judging the book one must determine how much credit to hand to the quality of the paper being used (which, as you can see, is rather luminous) and how much to the actual cuttings.  To my mind, this book is pretty much without parallel.  Just amazing.

Night World by Mordecai Gerstein

Much of the reception to this book is going to hinge on how well people react to the ways in which Gerstein has painted pre-dawn light.  One point in its favor: It contains a true moment of awe.  When the dawn arrives it’s a jaw dropper of a moment.  That’s what you want in an award winner.

Water Is Water by Miranda Paul. Illustrated by Jason Chin

One might rightly ask, why this Chin of all Chins?  After all, it’s not as though Jason hasn’t been making similarly stunning books for years.  The fact that he’s never gotten award love (at least in the Caldecott area of things) is a problem.  I find that sometimes award committees have difficulty rewarding realism that isn’t surrealism (Wiesner wins awards but James Ransome, for example, does not).  Here, Chin brings to life this infinitely simple, but incredibly clever, explanation for very young children of the water cycle in its different forms.  And he does so with his customary beauty and skill.  It’s worth considering at the very least.

The Whisper by Pamela Zagarenski

I’ve mentioned this one before with the note that I’m not usually a fan of Zagarenski’s work.  And though I’ve seen that some folks don’t enjoy the storyline quite as much as I do, I’m going to keep this one the list.  Of Zagarenski’s work (she is quite fond of floating crowns, you know), I do think this is her best.  And if her previous books have won Caldecotts then ipso facto . . .

2016 Newbery Predictions:

Caldecott predictions are generally much easier to include on lists of this sort than Newbery predictions because reading a picture book takes all of 5 minutes, max (unless we’re discussing the aforementioned The Marvels, and then God help your soul).  This year I’ve found a lot of books to love but few to seriously consider in this category.  However, there were a few exceptions:

Circus Mirandus by Cassie Beasley

Let it be known that hype makes me wary.  Exceedingly wary.  So when I walked into a Penguin preview earlier this year and found they’d decked themselves all out in a circus-themed hullabaloo my warning signals lit right up.  And sure, author Cassie Beasley was charming with her Georgian ways.  Yet she read a passage from this book that would have had a lot more impact if I’d read the book already.  So I put it off, and put it off, and all the while my fellow librarians were reading it and telling me in no uncertain terms that it was remarkable.  I finally picked it up to read it.  The verdict?  It really is lovely!  See my interview piece on Ms. Beasley about the difficulty in writing a non-creepy circus for more info.  I also recommended it at Redbook, so win a copy here if you’re curious.

Echo by Pam Munoz Ryan

I’m still pondering this one, months and months after I read it.  I think the supernatural element didn’t really need to be there since the three stories stand perfectly well on their own together.  But I can also tell you that every detail of this book has been etched into my memory.  And if you’ve any acquaintance with said memory, you’d understand why this must be a remarkable book.

Gone Crazy in Alabama by Rita Williams-Garcia

I had to do some research with my fellow librarians on this one before I could include it here.  Not because it isn’t good.  There is a vibrant undercurrent of truth running so strongly beneath this narrative that it almost hurts to read.  The relationships between the three sisters is one-of-a-kind and powerful.  In fact, if you’ve some free time in NYC on Saturday, August 1st we’re going to have a Children’s Literary Salon discussion between Jeanne Birdsall and Rita Williams-Garcia on their series and how it is to write about sisters.

At any rate, I had to determine whether or not the book stood on its own.  I’ve read the first two books, so I was in no place to judge.  So I handed it to some children’s librarians that had never read One Crazy Summer or P.S. Be Eleven.  Their verdict?  It works very well without prior knowledge of the previous books.  Which means, it’s a true literary contender.

Goodbye, Stranger by Rebecca Stead

I’m just looking forward to the Newbery/Caldecott Banquet where all they serve (once this wins the award) is cinnamon toast and vanilla milkshakes.  We’ve hashed the middle school vs. YA elements of this book before, so I’ve no particular desire to do it again here.  I will say, however, that if Stead wins it may be the first time in the history of the award that the Newbery goes to a literary agent.

Tricky Vic: The Impossibly True Story of the Man Who Sold the Eiffel Tower by Greg Pizzoli

Actually, I debated placing this in the Caldecott category.  After all, Pizzoli did a rather remarkable job of finding a way to keep his subject anonymous but still visible from page one onward.  Yet it is the writing I think about when I consider the book.  Synthesizing a single man’s life and turning it into a child-friendly narrative is no mean feat.  Pizzoli did it with great cheer and fervor.  A nonfiction title that deserves some Newbery love.

The War that Saved My Life by Kimberly Brubaker Bradley

My continuing to include this book in the ranking may be due in part to affection more than anything else.  Still, I can’t help but think this has all the right elements in place.  If kids can get past the cover (a detriment to getting even my staunchest librarians to read it) they’ll be amply rewarded.

Honorable Ineligible Mentions

Every year I read a couple books that I think should win Newbery or Caldecott awards.  Yet, for one reason or another, they are ineligible.  Here are my favorite ineligible books I’ve read in 2015 thus far.

The Nest by Kenneth Oppel. Illustrated by Jon Klassen

How have I not reviewed this book yet?  To my mind it’s the strangest, most wonderful, creeeeeeeeeepy book of 2015.  If Oppel wasn’t so inconveniently Canadian we’d be having a very serious debate about this book.  By the way – apparently Canadians can serve on the Newbery committee but cannot win the award.  How is that fair?  I demand new standards, doggone it!

Pax by Sara Pennypacker. Illustrated by Jon Klassen

The bad news is that this book is ineligible for a Newbery in 2015.  The good news is that this book is eligible for a Newbery in 2016.  Once you read it you’ll be convinced of its worthiness.  That said, how is it that Jon Klassen keeps getting to illustrate all the best novels?  Did he sacrifice a cow to the book jacket gods?  Or is it just that the man has exquisite taste?  Hmm.

This Is Sadie by Sara O’Leary. Illustrated by Julie Morstad

Canadian.  Again.  Morstad has also illustrated Laurel Snyder’s Swan, which could also have been up for consideration.  I’m very pleased that folks are finally discovering Julie Morstad, by the way.  I still think her board book The Swing is just one of the best out there.

That’s all she wrote, folks!  I read most of your suggestions last time so if I missed something it may not have been accidental.  That said, I know I’ve not read everything out there.  What are your favorites thus far?

There are traditions we adhere to because they are what we know.  And what do I know?  I know how much fun it is to predict Newbery and Caldecott winners WAY way way before I oughta.  Why do I do it?  Because it’s fun.  Mind-blowingly ridiculous on some level.  But fun.

Each year I also see whether or not my predictions had any bearing on the actual winners.  With that in mind, here’s how I’ve done for the last six or seven years or so.

2008 spring predictions: I get one Caldecott right (How I Learned Geography)

2009 spring predictions: I get two Newberys right (The Evolution of Calpurnia Tate and The (Mostly) True Adventures of Homer P Figg)

2010 spring predictions: I get one Newbery right (One Crazy Summer)

2011 spring predictions: I get one Newbery right (Inside Out and Back Again)

2012 spring predictions: I get two Newberys right (The One and Only Ivan and Splendors and Glooms), and one Caldecott right (Green).

2013 spring predictions: I get two Newberys right (Doll Bones and One Came Home) and one Caldecott right (Mr. Wuffles).  But pride goeth before the fall.

2014 spring predictions: Zip. Zero. Zilch.

Ruh-roh.

Ah, I was doing so well for a while there but 2014 was clearly a bust.  To be fair, I hadn’t read the three Newbery winners by this point in the year since they were all later season releases.  On the Caldecott side there were a fair number of books I could have considered.  But if the 2015 wins tell us anything, it is that  books beloved in the early part of the year can completely turn around and be forgotten by the second half.

And yet, I still love these little predictions.  If only because I get to cheer on the books I like the most.

This year, actually, my predictions are a bit backwards.  Usually I feel like I have a strong handle on the Newbery and a weak grip on the Caldecott.  This year?  It’s flipped.  But enough jabber jawing.  Let’s look at some pretty pretty books:

2016 Caldecott Predictions

A Fine Dessert by Emily Jenkins, ill. Sophie Blackall

Blackall has never won a Caldecott.  One might wonder why that is and come to the conclusion that her clean lined style is too seemingly simple for the committee.  Perhaps, but if so it’s a misguided interpretation.  I recently had the pleasure of hearing her speak about the research she did on this book, and it made me wonder if any of the Caldecott committee members would hear her, or anyone at her publishing house, say similar things.  Because once you know the sheer extent to which she fought for details like the book’s ice pit, that is knowledge you can never unknow.  Mind you, if her other book out this year about the bear that inspired Winnie-the-Pooh wins instead, I’ll be perfectly happy with that instead.

Float by Daniel Miyares

The wordless book is the picture book illustrator’s equivalent of a monologue.  Suddenly the words vanish and you’re center stage, commanding the audience’s attention by sheer will and artistic technique.  It can be intimidating.  Now this year we’re seeing a utterly gorgeous (and Canadian) Sidewalk Flowers by JonArno Lawson getting a lot of press.  It is not, however, the only sidewalk-inclined wordless picture book out there.  Miyares, who has flown under the radar for a number of years, has created his own subdued and rather lovely tale of a boy, a boat, a storm, a loss, and coming home to daddy.  I’ll need some more time to process this one but I like a lot of what it’s doing.

The Moon Is Going to Addy’s House by Ida Pearle

I’m sorry the scan of the cover is so crummy here, since part of the lure of this book (aside from the near magical use of cut paper to convey movement and characters) is the use of color.  This is a lush, magnificent title that manages to take cut paper and make it live.  There’s one particular shot of a little girl running to her daddy that will drop your jaw to the floor and shatter it completely. Absolutely stunning.

Night World by Mordecai Gerstein

I’m always wary of Newbery/Caldecott prediction lists that are full of previous winners.  It always strikes me as a technique bereft of imagination.  That said, sometimes it just makes good, clean sense.  The next two artists you see mentioned here are previous winners in one capacity or another.  Gerstein’s book plays with tones and hues and what you do or do not see when the sun is gone.  It has a killer ending where the sun rises and the colors return to the world that’s worth the price of admission alone.  We haven’t seen him win anything since The Man Who Walked Between the Towers.  Maybe this year’s the year to rectify that.

The Whisper by Pamela Zagarenski

Not to be confused with the 2015 Aaron Starmer novel of the same name (though the two pair together eerily well).  I will confess to you that in the past I’ve not been the biggest Zagarenski fan.  It’s something about the crowns she draws.  I must have a low crown tolerance.  So credit it to low expectations if you like, but when I picked up The Whisper to read I expected the same old, same old.  What I got instead was a book so imaginative and clever that it may just as easily live on as a writing prompt title as a work of beautiful art.  I do wonder if my love of the text is affecting my view of the art.  Maybe so, or maybe this really is the best thing she’s ever done.  You’ll have to decide for yourself.

2016 Newbery Predictions

Echo by Pam Munoz Ryan

I really only have three titles on the old Newbery side of things this spring.  It isn’t that I haven’t read a lot of potential winners.  I have!  It’s just a trickier year than I was expecting.  Now Ryan’s book listed here is a big thick brick of a title.  A definite paperweight, should you need one.  It takes three stories and a single instrument to highlight three very different lives before and during WWII.  I’m still picking apart my thoughts on it and I haven’t had a chance to have a nice long conversation with anyone about it yet, so all I’ll say is that it will certainly be a discussed title by the committee.

Goodbye, Stranger by Rebecca Stead

Of all the books list here in this post today, this is the book that I think has the best chance at a win.  What Stead has penned here is a middle school book, so it presses up against the upper ends of the Newbery’s age range (14).  I’ve already heard some folks wonder if they enjoyed it more as an adult than a kid would.  Time will tell on that account, but if the Newbery is supposed to go to the most “distinguished” children’s book, then this is the one to beat.  I can’t think of anything else this year that approaches its level.

Listen, Slowly by Thanhha Lai

Tricky one.  On the one hand the story is great, the characters vivid, the setting a character in and of itself, and some of the prose just heartbreakingly lovely.  On the down side, it’s got a couple scenes that could have been cut down or out.  There’s a confusing love triangle that serves no apparent purpose, and a dentist/moped sequence that I had to read and reread a couple times to myself to understand.  To win a Newbery this book will have to overcome these elements.  Then again, it stays with you long after you put it down.  Funny to mention it after Goodbye, Stranger too.  One book contains a lacy bra, and this book contains a plethora of thongs.

The War That Saved My Life by Kimberly Brubaker Bradley

You wouldn’t know it from the cover, but this is one of the year’s most enjoyable reads.  Review after review comments on how much fun the reader had getting through it.  It shouldn’t work but Bradley (who I pegged for a Newbery years ago for her Jefferson’s Sons, only to be disappointed) has amazing skills and an even better cast of characters.  I almost wonder if this book has a Newbery chance, considering the pleasure it elicits from my fellow gatekeepers.  Guess we’ll just have to see.

That’s all she wrote, folks.  What have you preferred thus far?  Surprise me.

And thus, we end. Though, with such a late ALA Media Awards announcement this year (Monday, February 2nd!) my predictions are coming a bit early in the game.  Still, it’s not as though I’ll be seeing much that’s new between now and 2/2.  I have watched with great interest the discussions on Heavy Medal and Calling Caldecott.  I’ve discussed and debated the contenders with folks of all sorts.  I’m eyeing the Mock Caldecotts and Mock Newberys with great fervor as they post their results (and I’m tallying them for my next Pre-Game / Post-Game Show).  I’ve gauged the wind.  Asked the Magic 8 ball.  Basically I’ve done everything in my power to not be to embarrassed when my predictions turn out to be woefully inaccurate.  And they will be.  Particularly in the Caldecott department.  Still, I press on!

I should mention that that throughout the year I mention the books that I think we should all be discussing.  This post is a little different.  It’s the books I think will actually win. Not the ones I want to win necessarily but the books that I think have the best chance. Here then are my thoughts, and may God have mercy on my soul:

Newbery Award

Winner: Brown Girl Dreaming by Jacqueline Woodson

What was it I wrote in my Fall Prediction Edition?  Ah yes. “This is Woodson’s year and we’re just living in it.”  Even without the National Book Award brouhaha and the fact that this book is being purchased by everyone from POTUS on down, Jackie would win in this category.  Why the certainty?  Well, I’m a big fan of thematic years.  I like to take the temperature of the times and work from there.  Look back at 2014 and what will we remember?  #WeNeedDiverseBooks for one.  The Newbery committee canNOT take such things into account, but it’s in the air.  They breathe it just like we do and it’s going to affect the decision unconsciously.  It doesn’t hurt matters that this is THE book of the year on top of everything else.  Magnificently written by an author who has deserved the gold for years, I haven’t been this certain of a book’s chances since The Lion and the Mouse (and, before that, When You Reach Me).

Honors: West of the Moon by Margi Preus

Not a certainty but what is? It’s just enormously difficult not to appreciate what Preus is doing in this book.  Mind you, my librarians were not entirely taken with it.  Some disliked the heroine too much.  Others found it dense.  And perhaps it is a “librarian book” intended for gatekeepers more than kids, but I cannot look at the title and not see the word “distinguished” floating above it like a Goodyear Blimp.

Honors: Boys of Blur by N.D. Wilson

Also not a sure thing but I think we’d do well to remember it.  Wilson’s one of those guys who drifts just under the radar until BLAMMO!  Amazing book.  Read the first page of this book all by itself.  Right there, he’s got you.  I can’t help but keep thinking about it.  I try to bring up other potential winners, but again and again I turn to this one.  Zombie Beowulf.  It’s about time.

Honors: The 14th Goldfish by Jennifer L. Holm

Hm. Tricksy. Jenni has this magnificent ability to accrue Honor after Honor after Honor.  I’m not seeing gold written all over this book (that’s a lie . . . the gold would complement the blue of the cover so well and fit on the left side of the neck of the beaker, don’t you think?) but it’s a contender.  Committees adore her writing, and why not? She’s one of the best.  Newbery Honor best?  I’m going to say yes.

Wild Card: The Family Romanov by Candace Fleming

YA but not too YA.  Certainly pushes the old 0-14 age range, but still a beaut.  With Brown Girl Dreaming as well, we might end up with a very strong nonfiction Newbery year (and won’t Common Core be pleased with that?).  Mind you, if I hesitate to predict this as an Honor it has more to do with the fact that my heart was broken when Candy didn’t receive any award love for her brilliant Amelia Lost  biography.  Shouldawonshouldawonshouldawonshouldawon . . .

Wild Card: The Night Gardener by Jonathan Auxier

Doll Bones Honored so why not another creepy little middle grade book?  Auxier pulls out all the stops here and is seriously literary in the process.  Is it distinguished?  Yep.  There’s serious heart and guts and other portions of the anatomy at work here.  It’s a smart book but appealing too.  Never downplay child appeal.  It’s worth considering.

Wild Card: The Riverman by Aaron Starmer

It’s probably a good sign when you can’t stop thinking about a book, right?  Again, we’re pushing up against the upper limits of the age restriction on Newbery Award winners here, but the book is worth it.  Objections I’ve heard lobbed against it say that Alexander doesn’t sound like a kid.  Well . . . actually, he’s not supposed to but you don’t really find that out until the second book.  So does that trip up the first one’s chances?  Maybe, but at least it’s consistent.  The objection that Aquavania isn’t realistic enough of a fantasy world would hold more weight if I thought it really WAS a fantasy world, but I don’t.  I think it’s all in the characters’ heads.  So my weird self-justifications seem to keep this one in the mix.  The only questions is, am I the only one?

Wild Card: The Crossover by Kwame Alexander

I’m ashamed to say that I hadn’t even seriously considered this one until a friend of mine brought it up this weekend.  And OF COURSE it’s a contender!  I mean just look at that language.  It sizzles on the page.  I’m more than a little peeved that he didn’t garner a NAACP Image Award nomination for this title.  If he wins something it’s going to make them look pretty dang silly, that’s for sure.  They nominated Dork Diaries 8 and not THIS?!?  Okay, rant done.  In the end it’s brilliant and, amazingly enough, equally beloved of YA and children’s librarians.  The Crossover is a crossover title.  Who knew?

By the way, am I the only one with a shelf in my home of 2014 books that have Newbery potential and that I don’t want to read but am holding onto just in case I have to read them?  They ain’t gonna Moon Over Manifest me this year, by gum!  I am prepared!

Caldecott Award

Winner: Draw by Raul Colon

Betcha you didn’t see that one coming, eh?  But honestly, I think this is where we’re heading.  First off, this isn’t one of my favorites of the year.  I’m just not making the emotional connection with it that I’d like to.  My favorite Colon of 2014?  Abuelo by Arthur Dorros.  But no one’s talking about that one (more fool they).  No, they like this one and as I’ve watched I’ve seen it crop up on more and more Best Of lists.  Then I sat down and thought about it.  Raul Colon.  It’s ridiculous that he doesn’t have a Caldecott Gold to his name.  He’s one of the masters of the field and this could easily be a case of the committee unconsciously thinking, “Thank God! Now we can give the man an award!”  We haven’t had a Latin American gold winner since David Diaz’s Smoky Night (talk about a book tied to its time period).  It just makes perfect sense.  Folks love it, it’s well done, and it could rise to the top.

Honors: The Farmer and the Clown by Marla Frazee

Again, not one of my favorites.  I love Marla Frazee and acknowledge freely that though I don’t get this book, I seem to be the only one who doesn’t (my husband berates me repeatedly for my cold cold heart regarding this title).  I mean, I absolutely adore the image of the little clown washing the smile off of his face, revealing his true feelings.  So since I’ve apparently a gear stuck in my left aorta, I’m going to assume that this is a book that everyone else sees clearly except me.  It could go gold, of course.  It seems to have an emotional hold on people and books with emotional holds do very well in the Caldecott race sometimes.  We shall see.

Honors: Bad Bye, Good Bye by Deborah Underwood, ill. Jonathan Bean

Could be wishful thinking on my part, but look at the book jacket, man.  Look at how it tells the entire story.  Look at his technique.  Isn’t it marvelous?  Look at how it’s not just an emotional journey but a kind of road trip through Americana as well.  Look at how he took this spare sparse text and gave it depth and feeling and meaning.  That is SERIOUSLY hard to do with another author’s work!!  Look at how beautiful it is and the emotionally satisfying (and accurate) beats.  Look upon its works, ye mighty, and despair.  Or give it a Caldecott Honor.  I’m easy.

Honors: Viva, Frida by Yuyi Morales

Admittedly it’s not a shoo-in.  In fact I’m a bit baffled that it didn’t show up on the recent list by Latinas for Latino Lit called Remarkable Latino Children’s Literature of 2014.  There are admittedly some folks who want this to be a biography and have a hard time dealing with the fact that that is not its raison d’etre.  Still others aren’t blown away by the text.  That said, we’re not looking at the text.  We’re looking at the imagery and the imagery is STUNNING.  I mean, it could win the gold easily, don’t you think?  Models and photography and two-dimensional art?  Yuyi Morales should have won a Caldecott years ago.  I think it’s finally time to give the woman some love.

Wild Card: Three Bears in a Boat by David Soman

“I still . . . I still, beeelieeeve!!!!”  Okay. So maybe it’s just me.  But when I sit down and I look and look and look at that image of the three little bears sailing into the sun with the light reflected off the water . . . *sigh*  It’s amazing.  I heard a very odd objection from someone saying that the bears don’t always look the same age from spread to spread.  Bull.  Do so.  Therein ends my very coherent defense.  It’s my favorite and maybe (probably) just mine, but I love it so much that I can’t give it up.  I just can’t.

Wild Card: Neighborhood Sharks by Katherine Roy

Because how cool would it frickin’ be?  Few have looked at this book and considered it for a Caldecott, but that’s just because they’re not looking at it correctly.  Consider the cinematic imagery.  The downright Hitchcockian view of the seal up above where YOU are the shark below.  The two page attack!  The beauty of blood in the water.  I mean, it’s gorgeous and accurate all at once.  I don’t think anyone’s giving the woman enough credit.  Give it a second glance, won’t you?

And that’s it!  There are loads and loads of titles missing from this list.  The actual winners, perhaps.  But I’m feeling confident that I’ve nailed at least a couple of these.  We shall see how it all falls out soon enough.  See you in February!!

Now we’re in the thick of it.  Do you hear that?  That is the clicking ticking sound of the reanimation of the Heavy Medal and Calling Caldecott blogs.  They’re a little groggy right now, trying to get their bearings, figuring out which foot to try first.  But don’t be fooled by their initial speed.  Very soon they’ll be acting like well-oiled machines, debating and comparing and contrasting like it’s nobody’s business.  But why let them have all the fun?  Time for a little predicting on my end as well!  I’ve been discussing these books with folks all year and through our debates I’m getting a better sense of the titles that are more likely than others to make it in the end.  So, with the inclusion of some fall books, here’s the latest roster of predictions. Please note that as the year goes on I tend to drop books off my list more than I add them.  This is also my penultimate list.  The final will appear in December.

2015 Newbery Predictions

The Night Gardener by Jonathan Auxier

It’s so satisfying when you like a book and then find that everyone else likes it too.  This was the very first book I mentioned in this year’s Spring Prediction Edition of Newbery/Caldecott 2015 and nothing has shaken my firm belief that it is extraordinary.  It balances out kid-friendly plotting with literary acumen.  It asks big questions while remaining down-to-earth.  And yes, it’s dark.  2014 is a dark year.  It’ll be compared to Doll Bones, which is not the worst thing in the world.  I could see this one making it to the finish line.  I really could.

Absolutely Almost by Lisa Graff

You know what?  I’m sticking by this one.  Graff’s novel has the ability to create hardcore reader fans, even though it has a very seemingly simple premise.  It’s librarian-bait to a certain extent (promoting a kid who likes to read Captain Underpants will do that) but I don’t think it’s really pandering or anything.  It’s also not a natural choice for the Newbery, preferring subtlety over literary largess.  I’m keeping it in mind for now.

West of the Moon by Margi Preus

Notable if, for no other reason, the fact that Nina Lindsay and I agree on it and we rarely agree on anything.  As it happens, this is a book I’ve been noticing a big backlash against.  It sports a complex and unlikeable heroine, which can prove difficult when assessing its merits.  She makes hard, often bad, choices.  But personally I feel that even if you dislike who she becomes, you still root for her to win.  Isn’t that worth something?  Other folks find the blending of historical fiction and fantasy unnerving.  I find it literary.  You be the judge.

Boys of Blur by N.D. Wilson

I could write out yet another defense of this remarkable novel, but I think I’ll let N.D. Wilson do the talking for me instead:

brown girl dreaming by Jacqueline Woodson

The frontrunner. This is Woodson’s year and we’re just living in it.  I’m waiting to hear the concentrated objections to this book.  Waiting because I’m having a hard time fathoming what they might be.  One librarian I spoke too complained it was too long.  Can’t agree myself, but I noted her comment.  Other than that, nobody disagrees that it’s distinguished.  As distinguished as distinguished can be, really.  If it doesn’t get the gold (look at all the nice sky-space where you could fit in a medal!) I will go on a small rampage.

Dory Fantasmagory by Abby Hanlon

Betcha didn’t see that one coming.  You were probably expecting a discussion of Revolution or A Snicker of Magic or something, right?  Well darling, I’ll confess something to you.  I like simple books.  Reeeeally simple books.  Books so simple that they cross an invisible line and become remarkably complex.  I like books that give you something to talk about for long periods of time.  That’s where Hanlon’s easy chapter book comes in.  What do I find distinguished about this story?  I find the emotional resonance and sheer honesty of the enterprise entirely surprising and extraordinary.  And speaking of out-there nominations . . .

Once Upon an Alphabet: Short Stories for All the Letters by Oliver Jeffers

Face facts.  Jeffers is a risky Caldecott bid, even when he’s at his best.  The man does do original things (This Moose Belongs to Me was probably his best bet since moving to America, though I’d argue that Stuck was the best overall) but his real strength actually lies in his writing.  The man’s brain is twisted in all the right places, so when you see a book as beautifully written as this one you have to forgive yourself for wanting to slap medals all over it, left and right.  A picture book winning a Newbery is not unheard of in this day and age, but it requires a committee that thinks in the same way. I don’t know this year’s committee particularly well.  I can’t say what they will or will not think.  All I do know is that this book deserves recognition.

Let the record show that the ONLY reason I am not including The Key That Swallowed Joey Pigza by Jack Gantos in this list is because it does require a bit of familiarity with the other books in the series.  I struggle with that knowledge since it’s long been a dream of mine to see a Joey Pigza book with the Newbery gold and this is our last possible chance to do just that.  Likewise, I’m not including The Madman of Piney Woods by Christopher Paul Curtis only because knowledge of Elijah of Buxton makes for a stronger ending to the tale  But both books are true contenders in every other way.

And now for the more difficult discussions (because clearly Newbery is a piece of cake….. hahahahahahahaha!!! <—- maniacal laughter)

2015 Caldecott Predictions

Bad Bye, Good Bye by Deborah Underwood, ill. Jonathan Bean

I only recently discovered that if you take the jacket off of this book and look at it from left to right you get to see the entire story play out, end to end.  What other illustrator goes for true emotion on the bloody blooming jacket of their books?  Bean is LONG overdue for Caldecott love.  He’s gotten Boston Globe-Horn Book love and Ezra Jack Keats Award love but at this moment in time it’s downright bizarre that he hasn’t a Caldecott or two to his name.  Hoping this book will change all that.

A Dance Like Starlight by Kristy Dempsey, ill. Floyd Cooper

I’m sticking with Floyd here.  The man’s paid his dues.  This book does some truly lovely things.  It’s going to have to deal with potentially running into people who just don’t care for his style.  It’s a distinctive one and not found anywhere else, but I know a certain stripe of gatekeeper doesn’t care for it.  It’s also one of three African-American ballerina books this year (Ballerina Dreams: From Orphan to Dancer by Michaela and Elaine DePrince, ill. Frank Morrison and Firebird by Misty Copeland, ill. Christopher Myers anyone?) but is undeniably the strongest.

Viva Frida by Yuyi Morales, photographs by  Tim O’Meara

People don’t like it when a book doesn’t fall into their preexisting prescribed notions of what a book should do.  Folks look at the cover and title of this book and think “picture book biography”.  When they don’t get that, they get mad.  I’ve heard complaints about the sparse text and lack of nonfiction elements.  Yet for all that, nobody can say a single word against the art.  “Stunning” only begins to encompass it.  I think that if you can detach your mind from thinking of the book as a story, you do far better with it.  Distinguished art?  You better believe it, baby.

Three Bears in a Boat by David Soman

Seriously, look me in the eye and explain to me how this isn’t everybody’s #1 Caldecott choice.  Right here.  In the eye.

Grandfather Gandhi by Arun Gandhi and Bethany Hegedus, illustrated by Evan Turk

What can I say that I haven’t said a hundred times before?  I’ve heard vague whines from folks who don’t care for this art style.  *sigh*  It happens.  I’ll just turn everything over to the author for her perspective on the story behind the story then.

Remy and Lulu by Kevin Hawkes and Hannah E. Harrison

Okay, try to think of a precedent for this one.  Let’s say this book won the Caldecott gold.  That would mark the very first time in the HISTORY  of the award itself that two unmarried artists got a medal for their work, yes?  And yet the book couldn’t exist without the two of them working in tandem.  Remy and Lulu is an excellent example of a book that I dismissed on an initial reading, yet found myself returning to again and again and again later.  And admit it.  The similarities in some ways to Officer Buckle and Gloria can only help it, right?

I don’t think I gave this book adequate attention the first time I read it through.

Have You Heard the Nesting Bird? by Rita Gray, ill. Kenard Pak

I heard an artist once criticize the current trend where picture book illustrators follow so closely in the footsteps of Jon Klassen.  And you could be forgiven for thinking that animator Kenard Pak is yet another one of these.  Yet when you look at this book, this remarkable little piece of nonfiction, you see how the textured watercolors are more than simply Klassen-esque.  Pak’s art is delightful and original and downright keen.  Can you say as much for many other books?

This is one of those years where the books I’m looking at have NOTHING to do with the books that other folks are looking at.  For example, when I look at the list of books being considered at Calling Caldecott, I am puzzled.  Seems to me it would make more sense to mention Blue on Blue by Dianne White, illustrated by Beth Krommes, Go to Sleep, Little Farm by Mary Lyn Ray, illustrated by Christopher Silas Neal, or Dragon’s Extraordinary Egg by Debi Gliori (wait . . . she’s Scottish and therefore ineligible?!  Doggone the doggity gones . . .).

For additional thoughts, be sure to check out the Goodreads lists of Newbery 2015 and Caldecott 2015 to see what the masses prefer this year.

So!  What did I miss?

Sloooooowly the predictions begin.  As I post this I’m hitting the sweet spot right between Book Expo and the annual American Library Association conference.  Which is to say, this is the moment in time when some folks have seen the fall galleys from BEA while other folks are about to see them at ALA.  On maternity leave, I am hampered significantly by what I see.  Most galleys are being sent to my workplace where they are out of my reach.  So while I’ve still seen a wide swath of things, I know that there are books I’m missing.  The fall prediction edition will be more complete, I am certain.  Plus, by that time we’ll see Heavy Medal and Calling Caldecott back up and running and predicting as well.

Meantime, I’m not the only one making predictions these days.  If you missed it, Travis Jonker did a heckuva great post when he predicted this year’s New York Times Best Illustrated.  These are books that might not be eligible for the Caldecott but that would be complete and utter contenders under different circumstances.  Worth your glance.

And now, some thoughts on the matter!

2015 Newbery Predictions

The Night Gardener by Jonathan Auxier

I’ve been very happy with the buzz surrounding Auxier’s latest.  When I reviewed it back in March I suspected that it had fine, outstanding qualities worthy of award consideration.  That suspicion has since been confirmed several times over by the multiple starred reviews and the online conversations I’ve observed.  Typical of the dark fantasy trend in middle grade in 2014 (aside from Snicker of Magic, everything’s pretty gloom and doom this year) Auxier’s book does what Doll Bones did last year, blending classic horror elements with deeper themes and questions for young readers.  His is a book that asks kids to question the nature of storytelling and lying (another 2014 trend, and a prevalent one that I intend to explore more thoroughly).  At the very least, I predict that this will be showing up on many many Mock Newbery lists this year.

Curiosity by Gary L. Blackwood

This is actually not garnering the buzz I’d expect of it this year.  Surprising since the release of a new Blackwood is a cause for celebration.  My suspicion is that the man has been out of the middle grade field for so long that new crops of young librarians are unaware of his work.  This is a true pity since Curiosity hits all the pleasure points of a Brian Selznick story.  With a killer cover and some superb writing, my hope is that the buzz is just on a low-boil and will be turned up significantly as we near the award season.  Perhaps this is my dark horse candidate this year, but I don’t think you should count it out.  It could definitely pull a Paperboy or Breaking Stalin’s Nose surprise win out of its hat.

Absolutely Almost by Lisa Graff

For years I’ve wanted a Lisa Graff book to make it onto my prediction lists, but every time there was just something holding me back.  No longer.  The remarkable thing about Absolutely Almost is that it dares not to be remarkable.  Or rather, it celebrates kindness over being special.  I’ll keep my thoughts to myself for the review I’ll write of it but Graff has accomplished here is something incredibly difficult.  Plus I love the idea of a major award going to a book that celebrates Captain Underpants like this one does.

The Nightingale’s Nest by Nikki Loftin

Another dark horse, and maybe one of the more divisive books on this list.  Loftin makes a lunge for magical realism with her story, which is a very difficult thing to do in middle grade novels.  The controversy surrounding it concerns The Emperor and what he did or did not do to the story’s heroine.  To my mind, any child reader who goes through this story will only recognize that he stole the girl’s voice by recording it.  End of story.  But because this book can be read very differently by adults vs. children, that may inhibit its chances.  Only time will tell.  The writing, few can argue, is superb.

The Greenglass House by Kate Milford

One of my favorite books of the year.  Pure pleasure reading through and through.  I’ve heard it described as “Clue meets The Westing Game” and that’s not too far off.  We haven’t had a Westing Game kind of book win a Newbery in a while, unless you count When You Reach Me.  It would be awfully nice for a mystery to win once more, and Milford’s talents at creating a whole and complete world within her pages is stellar.  Definitely a contender.

West of the Moon by Margi Preus

There are only two books out this year that I think are surefire Newbery contenders, and this is one of them (you’ll meet the other soon).  Preus is a marvel.  This book, again, taps equally into darkness and storytelling vs. lies while also managing to pluck all the use out of fantasy and yet remain fairly historical fiction-y.  It’s a quick read and a gripping one.  Additional Bonus: Lockjaw!

Boys of Blur by N.D. Wilson

Good buzz is surrounding Wilson’s latest, which is excellent.  I’ve already felt a little pushback to it, but the strong writing is working very well in its favor.  It’s not a sure thing, but if any Wilson book can finally make a decent lunge for the Newbery it is this.  Already I can predict that Heavy Medal will have a hard time with it (I would LOVE to be mistaken about this, though).  Plus it probably has the best book trailer of the year thus far.

brown girl dreaming by Jacqueline Woodson

The frontrunner, as far as I can tell.  No question.  There is nothing one can call a sure thing when it comes to Newbery or Caldecott books.  Heck, a couple of years ago I would have said that One Crazy Summer was a shoo-in.  Shows what I know.  That said, if this book does not win the Newbery proper then there will be blood in the streets.  Gushing torrents of scarlet red blood.  In a year of #WeNeedDiverseBooks what a capper it would be to give the Award to what is, not only, the best book of the year but also one that stands as a necessary piece of African-American history.  Not that the committee can think in those terms.  All that they can do is say whether or not the book is one of the most distinguished of the year.  Spoiler Alert: It is.

That’s what I think in terms of the frontrunners.  But there are plenty of other books that people are discussing.  Consider, for example, Rain, Reign by Ann M. Martin.  She won a Newbery Honor years ago.  Will she be able to recapture the magic with her latest?  Maybe, but not with this particular book.  It’s nicely done but as a woman hepped up on postpartum hormones, it tried to make me cry and didn’t quite get there.  That’s telling.  The Fourteenth Goldfish by Jennifer L. Holm is another fantastic and fun read (and pure science fiction, which is very rare indeed).  It feels like a slightly younger When You Reach Me, which is a fine and fancy pedigree.  But Newbery?  I didn’t feel it.  The Riverman by Aaron Starmer was definitely one I was thinking of when I first read it, but when I heard it was the first in a series that changed my interpretation of the ending.  Will the committee feel the same way?  The writing is, after all, fabulous.  Upside Down in the Middle of Nowhere by Julie T. Lamana was a book I loved earlier in the year.  I still love it, though in the wake of other strong contenders I’m not sure if it’ll make it to the award finish line.  And, of course, there is Snicker of Magic by Natalie Lloyd.  Forget what I said about Nightingale’s Nest.  THIS is the most divisive book of 2014.  The writing is very accomplished and it’s got great lines.  Plus it’s nice to see something But Newbery?  To win it’ll have to convince the committee that the (totally unnecessary and occasionally infuriating) cutesy parts are overwhelmed by the good writing.  Its win relies entirely on the tone of the committee.  I don’t envy them the debates.

Phew!  Moving on . . .

2015 Caldecott Predictions

Um . . no idea.  Honestly, I haven’t felt this out to sea in terms of the Caldecott in years.  I’m just not feeling it this year.  There are some superb books but surprisingly few of them grab me by the throat and throttle me while screaming “CALDECOTT!!!!”  in my ear.  I always fall apart on Caldecott predictions anyway.  Last year at this time I only mentioned two of the eventual winners, not even mentioning the other two (and HOW on earth did I fail to mention the glorious Flora and the Flamingo, I ask you?!?).  This year I just keep coming back to the books I mentioned in my spring prediction edition.  Fortunately, a couple additional books caught my jaded eye . . .

Bad Bye, Good Bye by Deborah Underwood, ill. Jonathan Bean

Bean wowed the world last year with his Building Our House, a winner of the Boston Globe-Horn Book Award.  But you know what Caldecott committees really like?  Variety.  That’s why his latest change of style is so exciting.  The beautiful simplicity of Underwood’s text, which manages to tell a complete story with a minimum of words, is matched page for page by Bean’s art.  The pairing results in a particularly strong product and since Caldecott committees are extraordinarily interested in books that pair art and text well, it seems to me we may have a winner on our hands here.

A Dance Like Starlight by Kristy Dempsey, ill. Floyd Cooper

A Floyd Cooper.  An honest-to-god Floyd Cooper prediction. Considering the man’s output, this may strike some as surprising.  No one ever contests that he’s accomplished but he’s one of those perpetual Caldecott bridesmaids never brides (see my post on such folks here).  It doesn’t matter how gorgeous his art is, he gets passed by time after time.  Except . . . something about this book is different.  My librarians, for one thing, who have always been Cooper-tepid are GAGA over this.  It’s not just the fact that the text manages to do the whole Live Your Dream storyline without getting cheesy.  There’s some stellar art at work.  This is a bad scan, but if this book does well I think it’ll be because of this image:

Viva Frida by Yuyi Morales, photographs by  Tim O’Meara

Speaking of always bridesmaids . . . but this book.  I mean, just wow.  Not that a Caldecott committee has ever, to the best of my knowledge, awarded three-dimensional art (scholars, correct me!).  But that’s the wonder of this book.  It isn’t JUST three-dimensional art, but two-dimensional as well.  The book itself celebrates the very concept of being an artist (a swell thing for a Caldecott committee to reward) and as I learned last year, Ms. Morales has residency here in the States so she certainly could win this thing.  Some folks don’t like that it isn’t a straight biography but something a little more artistic and esoteric.  Pfui to them, sez I.  You simply cannot read this and not find it stunning.

Hi, Koo! A Year of Seasons by Jon J. Muth

Never count out a Muth.  Though this book has far less lofty ambitions than his past Caldecott win, it has heart and lovely watercolors.  This could easily be sidelined altogether, or go for the big gold.  Certainly hard to say at this point.

Three Bears in a Boat by David Soman

It’s my personal #1, which makes me worry for its future.  When I get emotional about a book I find it sometimes hampers my view of its award chances.  That said, no one doubts the sheer beauty of the art here.  Soman’s always been someone to watch, even when working on something as popular as the Ladybug Girl series.  Can he win hearts and minds with bears?  I say yes.

Firefly July and Other Very Short Poems selected by Paul B. Janeczko, illustrated by Melissa Sweet

We know Sweet is automatic Caldecott bait, but you’re never quite sure which of her books will attract the committee.  This book isn’t afraid to be long and strong on the poetry.  I’ve heard grumbles in some quarters that the poems don’t always necessarily pair with one season or another, but that’s nothing against the art.  Still, it might affect its chances in the end.

Grandfather Gandhi by Arun Gandhi and Bethany Hegedus, illustrated by Evan Turk

If any debut deserves love it’s this one.  A remarkable combination of art and heart, with different styles and a heckuva great take on the subject matter.  Turk’s one to watch and this book is already one of the year’s favorites.  Even if it doesn’t win, it bodes well for the artist’s future.

In terms of books getting some nice buzz, I’ve heard some folks mentioning The Adventures of Beekle: The Unimaginary Friend by Dan Santat.  I love me a good Santat and Dan certainly poured his heart and soul into this one.  So why don’t I think it’s a surefire winner?  Hard to say.  The art is certainly nice enough. Meanwhile, Back at the Ranch by Anne Isaacs, illustrated by Kevin Hawkes hasn’t shown up on a lot of lists, but Anne Isaacs has a way of writing books that catch the eye of award committees.  My own librarians are very taken with this latest effort, and Hawkes should at least get a mention if only for the sheer disgustingness of his desperadoes.  Baby Bear by Kadir Nelson is one of those books that should, by rights, be a Caldecott contender.  Indeed there are some stirring images here.  Unfortunately there’s something off about this particular Nelson book.  It’s hard to pinpoint but it lays in the art.  Nelson’s due for a big gold someday.  This, however, probably won’t be “the one”.  Breathe by Scott Magoon is absolutely lovely and I would love Magoon to get an award one of these days.  It definitely belongs to the whale trend of 2014.  Will it get an award?  It may be too subtle for that.  We’ll see.  Finally, Sparky! by Jenny Offill, illustrated by Chris Appelhans, is the book getting a lot of the buzz.  I loved the story and the art but while I found it lovely and funny by turns I didn’t feel the award hum at work.  I think Appelhans is definitely one to watch.  You’re just going to have to keep watching.

For additional thoughts, be sure to check out the Goodreads lists of Newbery 2015 and Caldecott 2015 to see what the masses prefer this year.

So!  What did I miss?

Happy St. Patrick’s Day!  Yes, folks, it’s that time of year again.  Just when you had a spare moment to catch your breath after all that award craziness, I come in with my wheelbarrow of 2015 predictions ready to dump them on your proverbial lap whether you want them or not.  And on a holiday that has NOTHING to do with children’s books at that!  How’s that for gall?  If I were to take a guess I’d say you weren’t crazy about the prospect of having to consider what is and is not “distinguished” so early in the year.  Well, I feel your pain but I just can’t restrain myself.  For evidence of my inability to restrain myself in other years see my lamentable predictions including:

2008 spring predictions: I get one Caldecott right (How I Learned Geography)

2009 spring predictions: I get two Newberys right (The Evolution of Calpurnia Tate and The (Mostly) True Adventures of Homer P Figg)

2010 spring predictions: I get one Newbery right (One Crazy Summer)

2011 spring predictions: I get one Newbery right (Inside Out and Back Again)

2012 spring predictions: I get two Newberys right (The One and Only Ivan and Splendors and Glooms), and one Caldecott right (Green).  I’m getting better in my old age!  Woot!

2013 spring predictions: I get two Newberys right (Doll Bones and One Came Home) and one Caldecott right (Mr. Wuffles).  That ties me with my previous year of three successes.  As you can see, I’m better on Newberys than Caldecotts.

And I know I say this every year, but this year is REALLY strong in terms of Newbery contenders.  I swear I haven’t seen this many potential Newbery books this early in the season in quite a while.  The Caldecott, in contrast, is a little more up in the air.  I have no idea where it’s going.  In any case, here’s what I suggest you might want to read sometime soon:

2015 Newbery Predictions

The Night Gardener by Jonathan Auxier

If Doll Bones taught us anything it’s that horror has a real shot at a major award when it’s paired with a larger, all-encompassing theme.  In this case, the relationship between lies and stories and how people use both as crutches with dealing with their own personal traumas.  Heavy stuff?  Not under Auxier’s hand.  I expect a fair amount of buzz to surround Auxier’s second title, and serious discussion at that.  There’s a lot to pick apart here.

Curiosity by Gary L. Blackwood

Back in 1998, Blackwood captured hearts and minds with The Shakespeare Stealer.  To this day it remains his best known work, and the title that has proved to have enough legs to keep it on countless summer reading lists every single year.  It’s been a long time, but I think we’ve finally found a Blackwood book that surpasses Shakespeare in quality and excitement.  Throwing everything and the kitchen sink into his narrative (phrenology, P.T. Barnum, automatons, Edgar Allan Poe, and a kid hunchback, just for starters) this is a fabulous historical fiction read that will keep readers turning page after page after page.  Definitely one to keep a very sharp eye on.

Upside Down in the Middle of Nowhere by Julie T. Lamana

A debut author, no less!  This may just be optimism on my part, but I recently finished Lamana’s book and I was quite taken with it.  I’ve read a LOT of Hurricane Katrina middle grade novels.  Almost all of them (though not the I Survived series title set there).  With the sole exception of Ninth Ward, almost all of them involve a boy and a dog.  Seriously.  Look at Zane and the Hurricane, Buddy, and Saint Louis Armstrong Beach if you don’t believe me.  So it was with great relief that I read one where the doggie presence was mercifully brief.  Lamana tackles the Hurricane from the perspective of a kid with a large family and the result is a book that slices you from throat to sternum, removes your heart, and throws it out the nearest 251th floor window.  Let’s just say my fellow subway riders weren’t quite prepared for the crazy pregnant woman sobbing (repeatedly) over this.  It’s not flawless, but I think it’ll make for some grand conversations.

The Nightingale’s Nest by Nikki Loftin

We are definitely going to have a conversation about this book.  Maybe multiple conversations.  Maybe multiple conversations over the course of several months whereupon we pick apart, dissect, and generally go to town on what Loftin has accomplished here.  It’s a tough book but an interesting one, particularly when you take into consideration its magical realism elements.  I’m going to watch how others feel about it with great interest.  Honestly, it’s like nothing else I’ve seen in quite a while.

Boys of Blur by N.D. Wilson

Beowulf for kids.  Do I have your attention?  Because I should probably clarify that while what I just said is 100% accurate, this is just as clearly a zombie novel set in a Floridian swamp.  Wilson has always flirted with big subjects and his remarkable Leepike Ridge went inexplicably unnoticed for all that it was Odysseus modernized.  Boys of Blur is a tidbit more obvious with its references (it actually comes out and talks about Beowulf from time to time) but also unafraid to tie big ideas into exciting premises.  There’s as much internal strife in our young hero as he deals with his abusive father’s hometown as there are flesh-eating Grens.  Your eyes should be closely trained on this one.

2015 Caldecott Predictions

Hi, Koo! A Year of Seasons by Jon J. Muth

Muth is back and he went all adorable on us when we weren’t looking.  Sometimes the safest way to try and predict something as elusive as the Caldecott Award is to look at previous winners.  Certainly Muth did well back in the day with his 2006 Caldecott Honor winner Zen Shorts.  In this book he puts a clever twist on the only haiku format, favoring feeling over form (with understandable reasons behind both).  I could easily see this one getting an Honor this time around.

Three Bears in a Boat by David Soman

My own personal favorite, I confess.  For all the hundreds of picture books I’ve already read this year (lunch time is picture book reading time where I work) few take my breath away.  This is one of the few.  Soman’s ability to hone water to his liking will leave you dumbstruck.  A good story and killer art make this one of my top picks.

Grandfather Gandhi by Arun Gandhi and Bethany Hegedus, illustrated by Evan Turk

You know what I was chanting to myself as I looked up the information about this one?  I believe it was something along the lines of “Please let Evan Turk live in America.  Please please please let him live in America.”  This is because I desperately wanted him to be eligible for the award.  And guess what?  Not only does he live in the U.S. but he’s a local!  A New York City resident (more info here, in case you’re curious).  We’re already seeing some marvelous picture book biographies and works of nonfiction this year, Turk’s art elevates what was already a pretty cool story.  It’s not just the fact that it’s hugely accomplished.  Turk manages to weave in materials and elements that bring to mind books like When Sophie Gets Angry . . . Really Really Angry (not something you’d usually say about a nonfiction text).  Hugely rewarding to read, this one’s a keeper.  Bear it in mind.

Firefly July and Other Very Short Poems selected by Paul B. Janeczko, illustrated by Melissa Sweet

If the Caldecott Honor win of Red Sings From Treetops is any indication, Caldecott committees love them their seasonal poetry.  Add in the artistry of Melissa Sweet and you’ve got yourself a winner.  Sweet made a surprise Caldecott Honor win a couple years ago when she illustrated the William Carlos Williams book A River of Words for Eerdmans.  Since that time she’s been snatched up by all the big publishers, but her books (while always beautiful and well done) haven’t quite had the oomph to push her back into Caldecott territory.  Perhaps it’s poetry that makes for her finest fits.  Whatever the case, if you want to see Sweet at her best, this is the book to watch.

So cough it up.  You may have some favorites of your own, this early in the game.  Anything I should be reading that I haven’t gotten to yet?

Ho ha!  So yesterday I met with the good folks of SLJ to discuss a Newbery/Caldecott related . . . something.  I can say no more at this time, but be prepared for a big time announcement on this blog soon.

But FIRST!  It is at last time for my final Newbery/Caldecott/what have you predictions.  The books have been percolating in my brain and by this time I’ve read most (I won’t say all since there might be a Moon Over Manifest winner lurking somewhere out there) of the contenders.  I’ve seen the Mocks.  I know what folks are saying.  For a fun time, see how I did last year.  It’s very fun picking out the winners on my lists to see where they rank.  This Is Not My Hat was particularly off . . .

And so . . . onward!!

For the book that I feel has the number one best chance of winning the 2014 Newbery Medal, my selection goes to . . .

Newbery Medal

The Year of Billy Miller by Kevin Henkes

You may recall that I’ve been beating the drum for Doll Bones by Holly Black all this time.  Now I leap into the air and do a complete spin, pointing instead at Henkes.  This is very much going to be a case of what kind of committee we’re dealing with.  I’d say that most Newbery committees are comprised of members who really enjoy complex and literary children’s books.  And that’s fine.  That’s natural.  The danger is that simple books, books that have the ability to say quite a lot in a very few words, get lost in the shuffle.  Billy Miller is one of these simple books.  And the more I think about it, the more impressive it becomes to me.

And then there are the books that I think have a really good shot at an Honor or two.  My thinking?  Something along the lines of

Newbery Honors

Doll Bones by Holly Black – As you can see by this handy dandy chart, this is the book that has appeared on the most Mock Newberys around the country.  Once my best beloved and surest chance, now I’m not so sure.  Personally, I think it has the chops to go all the way, but some are iffy on it.  In the end it may come down to something as simplistic as to whether or not the committee honestly thinks that Black was trying for horror or not.  To my mind it’s obvious that she’s using the tropes but keeping it kid-friendly and with BIG themes in mind.  We shall see.

The Thing About Luck by Cynthia Kadohata – If I fell down on the job not reviewing a book this year, it would be this one.  Its National Book Award win certainly gave me pause, and then I sat down and examined what my problem was with it.  Basically, it’s the threshing.  The interminable threshing.  Kadohata occasionally stops the action dead to tell you, for pages at a time, about the process of threshing.  To my mind, that pause in the narrative kills it for me Medal-wise.  But then I went back and looked at the characters and over time I’ve been convinced that it really is a strong little number.  So I’m calling it for an Honor.  Don’t know if it’ll go all the way, but it would sure be nice.  If it does win the gold it’ll be the first book to win both a National Book Award and a Newbery Award since Holes.  So, y’know.  No pressure.

Yup.  I’m only seeing three potential winning books.  We’ve had years like this, where the Honors are few and far between.  My favorite years are the ones where there are as many Honors as possible, but they’re rare.

Note that while I’ve heard a lot of people say that 2013 was a strong year for nonfiction, they don’t mean in terms of Newbery books.  The only title that would have a chance would be Courage Has No Color, and looking at past years I don’t see it getting the attention it deserves.  But I would LOVE to be wrong, folks!

Then there are the Newbery Wild Cards that might take it all away:

Wild Cards

Hokey Pokey by Jerry Spinelli  - Early in 2013 I would have said this was a shoo-in.  Now?  I’m not so sure.  The question comes down to whether or not the committee understands what Spinelli is going for and, more to the point, thinks he succeeds.  In a recent conversation with a buddy we came to the realization that if 2013 had a theme it was of children entering adolescence.  This book discusses it.  Doll Bones discusses it.  Picture Me Gone by Meg Rosoff, for crying out loud, discusses it (we tried extrapolating this into the picture books for Caldecott but it didn’t really work).  At any rate, I still think it’s a strong contender.

The Real Boy by Anne Ursu – This has the feel of my The One and Only Ivan prediction of last year.  I think it’s very strong but I’ve also heard from a lot of folks who don’t much care for what Ursu’s doing here.  I think it’s stronger than Breadcrumbs (which I loved) so it has a real shot.  At the same time, Ursu is usually ignored by award committees that should be lavishing her with pennies and praise.  Then again again it was nominated for a National Book Award this year.  Could this be The Year of the Ursu?

Africa Is My Home: A Child of the Amistad by Monica Edinger – Don’t discount Monica.  She may have debuted with a book that infused its fictional text with nonfiction but that’s to her credit.  It was a risky game and the final product can only fulfill that most difficult of Newbery criteria: distinguished.  It’s up to the committee to determine if the book works as a piece of writing.

Locomotive by Brian Floca – Because, and let’s face it, if it won a Newbery Honor (which it really and truly and honestly could) that would be an upset of the best possible kind.

Where the Heck Is . . . ?

Counting by 7s by Holly Goldberg Sloan – Definitely a strong debut, no question.  And this book had moments in it that I’ll never forget, no matter how long I live (three words: closet of underwear).  That said, there are some elements that don’t quite work for me on this one.  Consider, for example, the ambiguous nature of Willow’s race which appears to have been thrown in solely to keep folks from complaining about the fact that people of every other race bend over backwards to help her.  It’s just little things like that.  Then again, the book racked up four starred reviews, so what the heck do I know?

P.S. Be Eleven by Rita Williams-Garcia – You know those Oscar Award winners who don’t win for their best work but later in their careers as way of apology?  That could easily happen here.  Let’s face facts.  One Crazy Summer was a once in a lifetime book, and the fact that it didn’t take home the gold still makes me red in the face with anger.  But what’s done is done.  This book, which has a lot of lovely elements, didn’t punch me in the gut in the same way.  I liked elements of it.  Months and months later I can still remember it very well.  But for Newbery?  I’m not seeing it this time around.

The True Blue Scouts of Sugar Man Swamp by Kathi Appelt – Over at Heavy Medals they’re have conniption fits over this book.  Something about the voice, and they’re not the only ones.  When I attended BookFest at the Bank Street College of Education this year, this book was included in a room discussion of “divisive” 2013 publications.  I didn’t see it.  To me, it’s simply a hugely charming animal story with a few Bonnie and Clyde hogs thrown in for good measure.  Is it too cartoony to win a Newbery?  Possibly.  Bad guys defeated by snakes aren’t the threats they might be, after all.  That said, if it does win a Newbery (and that would be awfully nice) I insist that the Newbery/Caldecott Banquet serve cane sugar pies as dessert.  I am not joking about this.

The Water Castle by Megan Frazer Blakemore – *sigh*  Fine.  I’ll take it off my list.  I really and truly did love it.  But I’ve faced down enough folks who don’t share my enthusiasm to know that it’s a bit of a long shot.  Still, it warms the cold cockles of my heart to see it on so many Mock Newbery lists out there.  That means it’s being read in droves.  My job here is done.

Flora and Ulysses by Kate DiCamillo – Folks wondered last time why I didn’t include this one, particularly since my review of it made it clear that I think it’s probably one of our newly minted National Ambassador of Young People’s Literature’s best.  Well, maybe it comes down to what the committee thinks about humor on the whole.  Usually when DiCamillo wins it’s for books that are a bit more serious.  This one involves a superhuman squirrel with a penchant for poetry.  But even that would be enough to carry it to the finish line . . . if it weren’t for the illustrated sections.  You see, a Newbery winner has to rely on words alone.  If there’s visual storytelling that shoulders the load of the plot at any point, it’s probably going to be considered invalid.  Consarn it.

As for my number one Caldecott Award pick?  I’m not going to surprise anybody out there when I say it’s all about the . . .

Caldecott Medal

Journey by Aaron Becker – It has a pretty good chance.  Weirdo concerns about concealed weapons aside, let’s consider the Caldecott Award criteria, shall we?  The Medal is to go to “the most distinguished American picture book for children.”  Now there are lots of books out there that were good.  Some you could even call “excellent”.  But for the lofty description of “most distinguished” I don’t know how you can look anywhere else.  The question is, are we dealing with a Lion and the Mouse Caldecott year (which is to say, a year where everyone independently determines this to be the winner) or is it more of a This Is Not My Hat year where the book gets drowned in other possibilities?  It all remains to be seen.

As for the Honors, there are some distinct possibilities:

Caldecott Honors

Locomotive by Brian Floca – I haven’t seen such universal acclaim for a picture book work of nonfiction in years.  There is a possibility that Floca could pull a Snowflake Bentley on us and win the Gold.  I would not object one jot.  History suggests that nonfiction Caldecott wins are rare beasties, but dare to dream, sez I!  More likely, though, it’ll Honor.  Not that the committees of years past have ever given Floca his dear due.  I mentioned earlier that I’m still peeved about the fact that One Crazy Summer never won a gold.  Well Moonshot, Floca’s brilliant (and I don’t use that word lightly) look at the Apollo mission got bupkiss the year it came out.  No Caldecott in sight.  Still fuming about that one.

Mr. Tiger Goes Wild by Peter Brown – Actually, Peter could run away with the gold this year very easily.  Who knew that in the final moments it would potentially all come down to a debut wordless book on the one hand and a dandified tiger on the other?  The art is fabulous here, but it’s how well it pairs with the language that makes it as good as it is.

The Dark by Lemony Snicket, illustrated by Jon Klassen – Klassen could potentially do a two year sweep of the awards, but I kind of hope he doesn’t.  It’s not that I don’t like the guy.  I adore him.  And it’s not that this isn’t a good book.  It’s really well done.  Seemingly simple on a first glance, there are loads of details hidden that just make you gasp when you read through on a fourth or fifth or sixth look.  I mean, were YOU aware of the lightbulb and how it relates to the lightbulb on the next page?  That said, while it’s really clever I don’t know if it has the heart to pull off a gold win.  An honor is far more likely.

The Matchbox Diary by Paul Fleischman, ill. Bagram Ibatoulline – Artists like Bagram Ibatoulline often get shunted into the category of Magnificent Artists Who Will Never Win Big Awards.  Barbara McClintock and some other folks often find themselves there.  To the best of my knowledge he’s never gotten a Caldecott of his very own.  Well maybe this year will be the year!  Pairing him with Fleischman was brilliant on somebody’s part.  The technical artistry required to do this book is almost over the top (the fact that these aren’t photographs alone should be enough to cause one’s jaw to drop in a downward manner).  But more than that, I felt like this book really had some serious heart.  And isn’t that what picture books are all about anyway?

And the Wild Cards?

Wild Cards

Mr. Wuffles by David Wiesner – Personally, I thought it was a hoot.  Aliens and cats and ants and all that.  Really a lovely piece of work from start to finish.  The question is how well it reads from panel to panel.  Though Wiesner’s books have always relied on visual storytelling to different degrees, this is the most cartoonish of his stories.  And depending on how fond the committee is of comics, that’s going to make all the difference in the world.

The Boy Who Loved Math: The Improbable Life of Paul Erdos by Deborah Heiligman, illustrated by LeUyen Pham – Because in a perfect world Ms. Pham would get at least SOME credit for how brilliantly she incorporated math into the art.  Is that something a Caldecott committee will consider?  Maybe not, but it sure as heck can’t hurt.  It’s not easy, and this book is definitely “distinguished” as a result.

Stardines Swim High Across the Sky by Jack Prelutsky, illustrated by Carin Berger – How is this not better known?  How are people not constantly talking about it?  Why do I feel like I’m in an echo chamber over here?  I’ve resigned myself to the fact that few love this book as much as I do, but y’all’re crazy.  This book rocks!

The Mighty LaLouche by Matthew Olshan, ill. Sophie Blackall – One of these days, Sophie’s going to surprise us all and get herself a Caldecott.  And maybe this is the year.  Maybe . . .

The sad thing?  I can’t be the only person who noticed that my Wild Cards are mostly women while my predictions are all male.  Doggone it.  Bad blogger!  No cookie for you!

Where the Heck Is . . . ?

Building Our House by Jonathan Bean – I’m not sure why I can’t commit to this one.  I love Bean.  Have loved his work for years.  I’m so happy to see him working again.  But this book felt almost too personal to me.  I’m not saying that certain kids won’t love it (I was actually thinking of checking it out for my kiddo, who’s into the idea of building houses right now).  I just don’t know how it’ll stack up in the Caldecott committee discussions.

And that wraps that up.

Say, do you like charts?  Then be sure to check out the following:

• Travis Jonker made this great chart of Publication Months of Newbery Award Winning Books.

• He also made this chart on the likelihood that a Newbery winner will win again.

• And this one on the average number of starred reviews.

• Here’s one for the Printz on the average number of starred reviews.

• And finally don’t forget this post, which culled info from all the available Mock Newberys.

So where have I erred tragically?  Correct me!

Man, isn’t it nice when the award season has died down and we don’t have to deal with any more crazed speculations about who’s “Newbery worthy” or “Caldecott worthy” or any of that nuttiness?  We can just sit back and enjoy some books and not . . . not worry about . . . *gulp* . . . ah . . . . grk . . . .

I CANTS TAKES IT NO MORE!!!!

It’s March.  Heck, it’s spring.  Practically.  And so here we have loads of books, TONS of the things, out there and circulating and taking up brain space and all of them just begging to be speculated upon.  If it is too early in the season for this, I more than understand.  Skip this post.  Have some cocoa.  Come back in the fall.  But if you, like me, just can’t get enough of this stuff, enjoy.

First up, we are visited by the Ghost of Spring Predictions of the Newbery/Caldecott Past.  This is always fun.  Check it out:

2008 spring predictions: I get one Caldecott right (How I Learned Geography)

2009 spring predictions: I get two Newberys right (The Evolution of Calpurnia Tate and The (Mostly) True Adventures of Homer P Figg)

2010 spring predictions: I get one Newbery right (One Crazy Summer)

2011 spring predictions: I get one Newbery right (Inside Out and Back Again)

2012 spring predictions: I get two Newberys right (The One and Only Ivan and Splendors and Glooms), and one Caldecott right (Green).  I’m getting better in my old age!  Woot!

We could speculate about what this means about the publishing industry and when they choose to release books, but I’d rather get to the meat of the matter.  And I should warn you, I’m finding 2014 to be a VERY strong year in contenders.  Newbery anyway.

En garde!

2014 Newbery Predictions

Doll Bones by Holly Black – I am reminded of the year that Silence of the Lambs won an Oscar.  That’s the only equivalent I can come up with if this book took home Newbery gold.  The writing is superlative, but also creepy as all get out.  More so than the relatively recent Newbery winner The Graveyard Book, anyway.  But if Gaiman can win . . .

The Water Castle by Megan Frazer Blakemore – It looks for all the world like a fantasy novel when you see the cover, but what you’ll find inside is just the nicest little science fiction novel.  I can’t tell if it’s the first in a series or a standalone book that trusts the reader to pick up on certain clever clues.  Whatever the case, it’s a brilliant companion to Tuck Everlasting (which, admittedly, never won a Newbery).

The Bully Book by Eric Kahn Gale – If you’re anything like me then you’re sick to death of bully related books.  All the more reason to admire Gale’s for having the guts to take a tired, worn subject and inject some much needed life into it.  Gale’s topic pales in the face of his delivery.  It reads more like a mystery novel than anything else (with a bit of noir on the side) so expect it to take home an Edgar award at the end of the year at the very least.

Hokey Pokey by Jerry Spinelli – Already one of two thoroughly divisive Newbery contenders.  I was enthralled by it but stepping back I’m interested in the child responses.  Will the “Ulysses of children’s literature” be too much for them?  Is the writing distinguished regardless?  Yes to the latter, not sure on the former.  At the very least, everyone’s going to have to read this one.

Courage Has No Color, the True Story of the Triple Nickles: America’s First Black Paratroopers by Tonya Lee Stone – She sort of specializes in crushed dreams but in this particular book I think Stone has outdone herself.  The sheer subtlety of the writing has to be worth something.  Jonathan Hunt brought up a question of whether or not the book sets you up to expect action.  I think that’s rather the point.

One Came Home by Amy Timberlake – A book I continually want to call “One Came Back”, for some reason.  My brain is weird.  If you think Hokey Pokey‘s a divisive topic then you haven’t sat in on some of the Timberlake talks I’ve witnessed.  It’s full of life and vitality, and like Gale’s book could also find itself nominated for an Edgar this year.  It’s the kind of historical fiction I like to read.  The question is whether or not it’ll be the kind of historical fiction the committee likes to read.  No clue on that one.

The Center of Everything by Linda Urban – My frontrunner.  Maybe.  I go back and forth but there’s no denying that Urban gets better and better with each book and that this one is, if you’ll forgive a tired phrase, a gem.  Or maybe I was just enthralled by the short page count.  Whatever the case, it’s smart and to the point and just lovely from start to finish.  ADORE.

2014 Caldecott Predictions

Mr. Tiger Goes Wild by Peter Brown – Ladies and gentlemen of the jury I submit to you the following evidence here and here.  Now that the man has won a Caldecott Honor we know that he is capable of even more.  There’s a distinct Rousseau-like quality to this book.  Peter Brown, like Linda Urban, gets better with each passing book.  Remember this one when it comes out in the fall.

The Boy Who Loved Math: The Improbable Life of Paul Erdos by Deborah Heiligman, illustrated by LeUyen Pham – In an era of Common Core Standards and increased attention on nonfiction, why can’t a book on math and a mathematician win the highest Honor in the land?  Sometimes I fear that there are certain talented artists that are passed over by the award committees each and every year without fail for no reason other than the fact that they’ve been passed over before.  And if anyone deserves a medal it’s Ms. Pham.  She’s a delight.  So is her art.  So is this book.

Stardines Swim High Across the Sky by Jack Prelutsky, illustrated by Carin Berger – Just a second.  I’m trying to envision how Mr. Prelutsky would react upon learning that one of his books had won a Caldecott this late in the game.  Wouldn’t that be rad (mentioning a poet from my youth apparently causes me to break out the late 1980s jargon)?  Berger, for her part, went above and beyond the call of duty when she created the art for this book.  Models do NOT fare well in Caldecott races, but certainly an exception can be made once in a while, yes yes?

Unicorn Thinks He’s Pretty Great by Bob Shea – But only if there were any justice in the universe.  Which, last time I checked, there is not.

The Dark by Lemony Snicket, illustrated by Jon Klassen – Like Peter Brown, Jon “I just won an Honor and an Award in the same year” Klassen is now considered verifiable Caldecott bait.  Admittedly this book is subtler than his previous fare and there’s a lot of black space.  I think a forward thinking committee, however, could have a lot of fun parsing where exactly he chose to put one shadow or another.  Worthy of discussion, at the very least.

Mr. Wuffles by David Wiesner – I’m just going to imagine for a moment what it would be like to hear lofty librarians parsing the merits of something with a name like “Mr. Wuffles” amongst themselves.  It’s a return to form for Wiesner, as weird and wacky and funny as they come.  However, he may have handicapped himself by making the book in a comic book style complete with speech balloons.  A certain breed of adult reader would have some definite problems with the layouts and action.  That said, you have GOT to see this puppy.  Nothing else out there is like it.

And that’s the long and short of it.  Something for your What To Read Next lists in any case.  And as ever, be sure to check out Jonathan Hunt’s 2014 reading list, when you’ve a chance.

In a mere twelve days the world will sit down and hear what the official winners of the 2013 Newbery and Caldecott Awards officially are.  Like you, I will tune in to the webcast to hear the announcements live.  ALA says that the announcement will be made ” 8 a.m. PT on Jan. 28, from the Washington State Convention Center in Seattle.”  Um . . . 8 a.m. PT?  So, that would be . . . 5 a.m. ET?  Ruh-roh.  Might have to go to bed a bit early that night. UPDATE: In spite of traveling to the West Coast on a regular basis, clever readers have pointed out that the announcements will be made at 11 a.m. ET.  Clearly am incapable of math.

In the meantime, let’s speculate to our heart’s delight.  We don’t have much to go on above and beyond the Mock Newberys and Mock Caldecotts springing up around the nation.  I wondered if Heavy Medal or Calling Caldecott would tabulate these announcements, but apparently that’s not their bag.  Next year maybe I’ll give it a try.  Beats working.  In any case, I feel like we’ve seen a real increase in Mock Awards nationwide recently.  This is good news.  If you’ve a chance, check out some of the newer blogs like For Those About to Mock, which have been amusing me considerably over the last few months.

But enough jibber jabber!  Let’s talk about what I think will win for 2013.  I’ve heard a couple folks speculate that 2012 was a strong Printz and Siebert year but a weak Newbery and Caldecott one.  Not entirely certain how to account for that.  One thing I do know is that this is a year without villains.  There are some years where a book you loathe has a chance of winning it all.  There were a two or three books like that for me this year, but I don’t think they have a chance in the world, so I’m not worried.  I like pretty much everything.  So let’s look at the top contenders, shall we?

Newbery Medal

And the gold goes to . . .

Starry River of the Sky by Grace Lin – Here’s my logic on this one.  If you want a simple (and entirely off-base) bit of reasoning you could note that Lin’s previous Chinese folktale-imbued novel Where the Mountain Meets the Moon won a Newbery Honor.  This book is better than that one, ipso facto it deserves the gold.  But Newbery committees don’t look at an author’s past work.  They have to take every book as it comes and judge it on its own merits.  Consider then, the merits of Ms. Lin’s book.  Her subtle weaving of folktale and myth into the storyline is flawless, and so beautifully done that you’d suspect she made up those tale just to suit the tale (and you’d be wrong).  The characters have depth even in the midst of their fairytale-like setting.  Is it “distinguished”?  No bones about it.  Plus it’s funny, it has a snail- eating subplot (not a Newbery requirement yet, though it should be), and the tales are cyclical.  You can trace how one tale repeats back on itself later.  Long story short, there’s a reason NYPL made it the cover of the 100 Titles for Reading and Sharing list for 2012.  I may be off-base, but I’ll be damned if Lin doesn’t at least get an Honor for this.

Newbery Honors
(the likelihood of there being 5 Honors is slim to none but a girl can dream, can’t she?)

Bomb by Steve Sheinkin – After a long talk with Monica Edinger of Educating Alice I came to the decision that Sheinkin’s book may have a real chance.  Initially I thought it might play too old for the Newbery.  After reading it, though, I can see how 13 and 14-year-olds could certainly get a lot out of the text.  Then I worried that it would suffer the fate of so many other nonfiction books that came before.  You know how it is.  It’s 2 a.m., the committee is exhausted, and when the votes don’t make a clear cut winner then any small controversial fact in a nonfiction book makes it game for excising.  But Bomb seems pretty strong.  Some folks have questioned Sheinkin’s facts, but he can account for every windswept hair or fist hitting a table.  Other folks questioned how important heavy water was to a Allied win/Nazi win.  But if his facts are accurate then I don’t know that this is a real concern.  The book reads like an episode of Mission Impossible, it’s fun, it’s smart, it shows multiple sides, and it is without a doubt one of the most intelligent titles of the year.  So give it some lovin’ committee!

Twelve Kinds of Ice by Ellen Obed – Perhaps this is just stubbornness on my part when talking about this personal favorite, but when you’re bandying about the word “distinguished” this book hits on every level.  I’ve been singing its praises for months now, but I’m not listing it here for no reason.  I honestly think it has a shot.  It’s the shortest of my predictions, but it does what it sets out to do better than most books of the year.  If it Honored I would be honored.

Splendors and Glooms by Laura Amy Schlitz – Admittedly when I read it I figured I loved it but that it wouldn’t touch other librarians in the same way.  How wrong I was!  Over and over again folks have informed me that they adore this book.  Ms. Schlitz is one of our best children’s authors of the day, and this title was a long time coming.  Clearly her talent just shines on every page and Newbery committees have a tendency to reward that sort of thing.  Just sayin’.

Crow by Barbara Wright – My boss, as I may have mentioned, has a sixth sense about these things and her mental dowsing rod has been pointed straight at Crow for some time.  If it walks away with the gold, don’t act surprised.  Just watch her closely next year and put down some money.

The One and Only Ivan by Katherine Applegate – I would actually be right pleased if it walked away with the gold. Is it distinguished?  Absolutely!  And smart and funny and a talking animal book that will even please folks who can’t stand talking animal books. Ivan, you have my vote of confidence.

So that’s that.  Which, inevitably, brings us to . . .

Where The Heck Is . . . .?

Wonder by R.J. Palacio – You know, I think this may be the Okay for Now of 2012.  It broke early, giving folks enough time to get over their initial sense of . . . . well . . . wonder, before noticing some of the problems.  For a complete listing of those problems I refer you to Peter Sieruta’s post on the matter here.  I think it’s a lovely book and I enjoyed it thoroughly, but in the end it may just have to rest on its massive popularity for comfort.  This book appears to have run its course.

Liar and Spy by Rebecca Stead – While I can see it winning, I’d be surprised.  I enjoyed it very much when I read it but time has shown me that it may not have quite enough oomph to carry it over the finish line.

The Lions of Little Rock by Kristine Levine – Again, really enjoyed this one.  Didn’t get a chance to review it (doggone it) but if it wins I’ve a copy sitting on my shelf just waiting for that announcement.  Not sure if it’s the one that Levine’s going to be remembered for, though.  I think she has some more good books in her.  The next one she does may be “the one”.

And then there are the books that I adore but are so divisive I can’t see them winning anything.  In my perfect dreamworld Three Times Lucky by Sheila Turnage is the surprise 2013 winner (wouldn’t that be a BLAST?) and everyone’s jaws fall to the floor.  I mean, she’d be a perfect winner.  It took her twenty-eight years between books, she’s charming, the book is funny as all get out, etc.  Unfortunately some folks don’t much care for Southern humor or quirky small-town characters, so I can’t see it happening.  Sara Pennypacker’s Summer of the Gypsy Moths is similar in that way.  I love it, but I dunno.  Louise Erdrich is routinely passed over for this award, though I’d be delighted if Chickadee proved me wrong.  I loved The Unfortunate Son by Constance Leeds but since I’m the only one I’m fine with acknowledging it may not get so much as a wink or a blink.

So that’s Newbery for ya.  Let’s do the harder award to predict.  Which is to say, I almost NEVER get this right.

Caldecott Medal

And the gold goes to . . .

Green by Laura Vaccaro Seeger – Long story short, I think it does everything right.  The die-cuts work, the descriptions work, and it has a low ebb of ecological sensitivity running through it that is VERY attractive to a committee.  It’s not didactic, but it still manages to get its message across.  Living as I do in a city that was hit hard by a hurricane this year, I can’t help but notice that few picture books have tackled the environment in any way, shape, or form.  This is one of the few, so it’s timely as well as beautiful and well-written.  If it doesn’t Honor at the very least I am going to pelt the committee with plastic styrofoam peanuts until my rage has abated.

Caldecott Honors

More by I.C. Springmann, illustrated by Brian Lies – Saucy little magpie, isn’t he?  This is a book that I didn’t pay doodly over squat attention to this year.  I liked it.  I thought it was cool.  Heck I even cut up its F&G and turned it into a birdhouse for my baby’s bedroom.  But Caldecott?  Never occurred to me.  Not until it started showing up on Mock Caldecott lists.  Over . . . . and over.  . . . and over.  There’s something about this book that pleases large groups of people.  Someone questioned whether or not it was adult friendly rather than kid-friendly, but I’d disagree heartily with that criticism.  I mean, there’s a lot of enjoyable chaos in this book.  I’m sorry I never reviewed it, but if it wins something I’ll make up for that sin pronto.

Extra Yarn by Mac Barnett, illustrated by Jon Klassen – Another one that has come up enough times in discussions to convince me that it’s a real contender.  There was some discussion over whether or not the knitting technique in this book is inaccurate and whether or not that would disqualify it.  I happen to be the daughter of a pre-eminent knitter and this did not strike me a big problem.  Trust me when I say that I’ve seen MUCH worse needle techniques in books in my day.  The real question is whether or not the committee will deem Klassen’s restrained style as “distinguished”.  Of that, I cannot say.  I can only hope. Please read the speeches by Mac Barnett and Jon Klassen after they won a Boston-Globe Horn Book Award for this book.  It’ll be the best part of your day.

Wild Cards

Jazz Age Josephine by Jonah Winter, illustrated by Marjorie Priceman – Forgot all about this one, didn’t you?  It came out early in 2012 and Priceman, lest you forget, is a previous Caldecott Honor winner.  There is a surprising LACK of diversity in the books we’re discussing this year, so let me at least bring this one up as a contender.  The writing is top-notch and the visuals amazing.  I don’t know how you can show Josephine’s banana dress dance and remain G-rated fare, but somehow Priceman pulls it off.  She should get an award for that alone.

Mom, It’s My First Day of Kindergarten by Hyewon Yum – Who, may I add, is a Brooklyn resident.  It’s a divisive book to a certain extent, but those folks who love it REALLY love it.  Kids totally get the metaphor at work too, and it would be nice to see Yum get a little credit for her unique style.  Don’t count it out.  I could see this one pulling ahead from the rear.

Step Gently Out by Helen Frost, photographs by Rick Lieder – Because this is Helen Frost we’re talking about this book has also been bandied about for the Newbery.  I think it would be a very forward thinking Newbery committee to give the award to something quite this simple and refined.  Come to that, it would take a very forward thinking Caldecott committee to give an award to a book of photography (something that has never happened before).  Still, wouldn’t it be neat?

Chloe and the Lion by Mac Barnett, illustrated by Adam Rex – Adam Rex is, for whatever reason, continually passed over for Caldecotts time and time again.  I like to think that if he ever won one, it would be for this book.  It’s so smart and funny and clever, and it seems to me that since this is the 75th anniversary of the Caldecott, a book that is entirely ABOUT the relationship between the artist and the author would be a no-brainer of a win.  The timing couldn’t be any more perfect.  *hint hint* oh, committee *hint hint*

Boot & Shoe by Marla Frazee – Well she has a penchant for winning Honors, and this book’s delightful.  I don’t know that it’s coming up in that many conversations, but it would be nice to see it get a little kick.  Plus I’m a sucker for, as Kirkus put it, “erroneous bereavement”.

Creepy Carrots by Aaron Reynolds, illustrated by Peter Brown – Oh it doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in h-e-double hockey stick.  But a luuuuuuuurve it.  I want to go live in the universe where this wins.

Where the Heck Is . . . ?

And Then It’s Spring by Julie Fogiano, illustrated by Erin E. Stead – Is it lovely?  Oh yup yup yup.  And I would NOT be surprised if it won it all.  But for some strange reason I just don’t think it will.  I can’t account for this feeling.  We’ll see.

Oh No by Candace Fleming, illustrated by Eric Rohmann – This one, alas, may be sunk because of perspective.  There’s a moment when the animal p.o.v. in the hole makes it clear that they would not be able to see the tiger approach and yet they still cry “Oh no!” when he gets near.  That’s a teeny tiny detail, but the kind of thing a committee latches onto (depending on the tenor of the committee).  It’s gorgeous, though.  Would be nice if it got something.

Unspoken by Henry Cole – I know it has its defenders, but I confess that this book didn’t do it for me.  I can see what it was going for but the overall effect is (forgive me) Selznick-lite.  I didn’t get the emotional punch from the material that some have felt.  The committee may feel otherwise, of course.

This Is Not My Hat by Jon Klassen – If the predecessor did not win, I don’t think the sequel will either.  I do love the tiny hat, though.

For a larf, check out what I thought would win last year.  That’ll show you why everything up here is wrongdy wrong wrong.  I’m still mad about the Amelia Lost shut-out, but at least I had a vague notion about Inside Out and Back Again.  I called A Ball for Daisy as an Honor and Grandpa Green, but that was as close as I got to correct.  Ouch!

A little late but still got it out before the end of October and the imminent arrival of Frankenstorm.  I spent a goodly part of yesterday preparing for the hurricane by baking pumpkin chocolate chip cookies.  Now you know where my priorities lie.

The year has passed like a blur and there’s an interesting consistency to the books being discussed for Newberys and Caldecotts.  Newberys anyway.  This may be an entirely Wild Card Caldecott year as far as I can tell.  There are no sure fire winners.  Only worthy contestants.  Let’s begin!

Newbery 2013

The Unfortunate Son by Constance Leeds – I stand by this one.  It was weird when I put it on my last prediction list and weirder still that I’ve not removed it.  But the fact of the matter is that when we think of the word “distinguished” and apply it to writing, Leeds’ book stands up time and time again.  If you haven’t read it yet, I think you’ll have to grab yourself a copy and take a gander.  Shield thine eyes against the brown-ness of the book jacket and enjoy the stellar writing.  Yes, it’s a wild card, but such a lovely fun one.

Starry River of the Sky by Grace Lin – In spite of having one of the more difficult names to remember, I think this is my current front runner.  Yep.  I think we’ve got a gold medal winner on our hands.  It isn’t just the fact that it’s better than its predecessor (which won an Honor back in the day).  It’s the fact that Lin seamlessly weaves her folktales into the narrative in such a way that you half suspect she made them up (she didn’t).  It’s the fact that the writing is cyclical, referring back to itself and to the characters both telling and listening to the story.  It’s the fact that it’s masterful.  Nuff said.

Twelve Kinds of Ice by Ellen Obed – My pet beloved, and STILL it is not out yet.  Is there any way to curse a book more than to release it in November?  Talk is minimal about it, though it has gotten starred reviews already and Travis Jonker gave it an enthusiastic thumbs up over at 100 Scope Notes.  Consider this one the stealth contestant.  Nobody will see it coming . . .

Wonder by R.J. Palacio – Normally when a book breaks as early as this one did in the year it is either forgotten or less discussed by the year’s end.  Not the case with Wonder.  This is a case of a book coming out in the right place at the right time.  It managed to simultaneously touch people on an emotional level, wow them on a literary one, and (most important of all?) it falls under the sway of the current Anti-Bullying craze sweeping the nation.  Whole schools are adopting it as their One Book reads.  I had a discussion with someone the other day about how many award winners win simply because of timing.  Could Smoky Night by David Diaz or The Man Who Walked Between the Towers by Mordecai Gerstein (or even Johnny Tremain for that matter) have done so well if they hadn’t be published precisely when they were?  By the same token, Wonder at least has a VERY good chance at a Newbery honor.  Note that it didn’t make it onto the National Book Award finalists, though.  That may be why I’m not so sure of its gold chances.

Summer of the Gypsy Moths by Sara Pennypacker – If the book is sunk by anything at this point it may be the ending.  Not the happiness found there, mind.  I was a-okay with all of that.  Rather, the lack of attention the press takes in the story and the mildest of mild slaps on the wrist to the characters.  Still, in terms of character development this is maybe the strongest children’s novel of the year.

Splendors and Glooms by Laura Amy Schlitz – Shaking off the rather ridiculous notion that the book is boring (how much more blood would it take to be exciting exactly?) what has surprised me time and time again about this book is the reaction from patrons and librarians.  I expected to be the one lonely voice howling in the wind about its loveliness.  Instead I find myself just an average alto in a very large chorus.  Nina at Heavy Medals thinks it’s a love it or hate it title, but I have been surprised at how few folks I’ve run across dislike it or think it’s anything less than fantastic.  I recently did a Wolves of Willoughby Chase event and when asked who is akin to Joan Aiken, Ms. Schlitz’s name popped immediately to mind.  For writing alone, this should win something.

Bomb by Steve Sheinkin – Just as folks like Jonathan Hunt have their own tendencies when they talk about potential winners (he pushes YA, nonfiction, and easy/picture books) my personal bugaboo is the YA novel that wins a Newbery.  The award goes until the age of 14 so, technically, many is the book that could win.  However, I’ve always disliked it when a book meant for an older audience wins the day.  We have the Printz and though it does not receive the same press as the Newbery, I feel it covers the tween crowd quite nicely.  There are always exceptions, which is why I’m not exactly sitting down to rewrite the Newbery criteria.  Case in point, Bomb.  What I love about this is that while it does have an older audience in mind, the content is the kind of thing I’ve had many many 10, 11 and 12-year-olds asking me for over the years.  They want bomb info.  This book delivers and, amazing as it is to say, Jonathan actually agrees with me on this one.  Wowzer!

Crow by Barbara Wright – I have a co-worker with a near supernatural sense of ALA Award winners.  A year ago she kept harkening back to A Ball for Daisy.  Kept saying how worthy it was and how the wordless sequences really put it over the top.  This year she’s been getting the same feeling about Crow.  I will admit to you that it took a long time for me to pick this Reconstruction-era tale up but when I finished I was glad that I did.  It is worthy?  No question.  What may sink it is the question of kid-friendly reading.  Technically this is not a serious consideration on the part of the Newbery committee, but it’s still something they take into account.  Then again, my co-worker is so rarely wrong . . .

Not Mentioned (and why!):

• The One and Only Ivan by Katharine Applegate – I was very fond of this one but I’m not sure if I’m ready to stick my flag into it and declare it a whole new world. It does some great things and like Wonder is very timely (the real Ivan died this year). Trouble is, it relies on a plot point that I’ve heard contested in more than one circle, so I’m not sure if it will get all that far.
• The Lions of Little Rock by Kristin Levine – I was actually a big fan of this one. Really well done. Just didn’t quite have that little extra something to make it a Newbery.
• No Crystal Stair by Vaunda Micheaux Nelson – Too YA.  Though if we consider the sheer lack of multiculturalism this year I’d be more than happy to have it seriously considered.
• Liar and Spy by Rebecca Stead – Love the book but I’m not sure of its long term staying power. A good one to be aware of in any case.
• Three Times Lucky by Sheila Turnage – I adore it but this has turned out to be a hugely divisive book. Please, oh please, dear sweet committee, prove me wrong!

Caldecott

(this kind of thing is so much easier to do when the New York Times Best Illustrated List has already come out)

And Then It’s Spring by Julie Fogliano, illustrated by Erin E. Stead – In a year that could conceivably be considered Stead vs. Stead vs. Stead (this, Phil’s A Home for Bird, and the duo’s Bear Has a Story to Tell) of all the Steadifying of 2012 this book remains my favorite.  It’s not just Fogliano’s delightful but careful and subdued writing.  It’s how Ms. Stead has chosen to portray the sheer swaths of time left waiting for something to grow in the spring.  This is a book about restraint (a notion foreign to most small children).  Let us hope the committee is not the least bit restrained and gives is a glorious little award.

Step Gently Out by Helen Frost, photographs by Rick Lieder – As a woman who spent her young adult life certain that she would become a professional photographer (ah, crazed youth) my heart is still firmly in the court of photography.  There is, naturally, the question of whether or not a book complemented by photographs constitutes “illustration”.  In the fine art world photography has always been pooh-poohed as a lesser art, and some of that prejudice slips down even to the world of children’s literature.  Indeed, no work of pure photography has ever won a Caldecott (the only near exception being Knuffle Bunny’s mix of photos and images).  Certainly I always thought that if any photographer got such an award it would have to be Nic Bishop.  If it happened to go to Rick Lieder instead, however, I would not mind a jot.

Extra Yarn by Mac Barnett, illustrated by Jon Klassen – The last time I mentioned my predictions I failed to include this little gem.  The response from the artists out there was a universal cry of support.  Mr. Klassen is very big amongst his fellows.  That being said, there is some concern that the heroine of this book does not hold her knitting needles correctly. I can’t seem to find my copy but if true then this could potentially disqualify the book.  FYI.

Green by Laura Vaccaro Seeger – I refer you now to Lolly Robinson’s discussion at Calling Caldecott where she waxes rhapsodic about the various traits worth celebrating in the title.  To my horror, however, she pointed out a small mistake.  It sounds like a mild design issue and hopefully not a dealbreaker.  Just the same, it could well reduce what I once thought of as the Caldecott frontrunner to an Honor.  Or maybe not!    I’m still counting on getting a green Newbery/Caldecott dress out of this.

Baby Bear Sees Blue by Ashley Wolff – A smart mix of tribute and original storytelling/art.  One of the younger Caldecott contenders seen here, and I think that’s important.  It is restrained in its text, but to just the right degree.  Hopefully the committee will see it for the smart little book that it is.

Not Mentioned (and why!):

• Z is for Moose by Kelly A. Bingham, ill. Paul O. Zelinsky – Hugely popular it is. Lots of fun as well. I’m just not certain it outshines the other potential candidates this year, that’s all. Still a stellar piece of work, no matter how you slice it.

• This is Not My Hat by Jon Klassen – No, I’m afraid his work on Extra Yarn has a better chance. This one is a visual stunner, but not quite there on the writing side.

• Oh No! by Candace Ransom, ill. Eric Rohmann – Great book but alas someone showed me a perspective problem near the end that may sink it for the committee. Doggone it.

And your thoughts?

Howdy-do, folks.  Today I am off to the Yonkers Library to participate in a Charles Dickens panel with some experts in the field.  Why me?  I don’t precisely know but I’m honored to be asked.  Plus the train ride will allow me to read my new Lemony Snicket book (this would be the children’s literature equivalent of bold as you please name dropping).

Onward!

First up, some nepotism, uncut.  The resident husband has a tendency to be brilliant (not that I’m biased or anything).  Recent evidence of this can be found on editor Cheryl Klein’s podcast Narrative Breakdown – Creative Writing, Screenwriting,Young Adult Lit, TV shows and More.  With partner-in-crime James Monohan, the two of them have a habit of talking about writing in all its many forms.  Mr. Bird appears on the episode called “Scene Construction 1 > Character Expectations and Tactics” on 9/8/12 which was described as, “what may be our most ambitious episode yet.”  In related news, Mr. Bird has restarted his blog Cockeyed Caravan in all its wild advisory glory.  I just like this picture he came up with when talking about the roles individuals play in teams:

• Wow.  This post outlining how creating a book trailer meets Common Core Standards is fantastic.  Many thanks indeed to Joyce Valenza for the link!

• And now your daily Jarrett Krosoczka links.  As per usual.  Jarrett’s been a busy man recently, making him a pleasure to link to.  If he isn’t daring our nation’s boys to read books starring girls then he’s creating the ultimate author mix and match or sneaking some well-known librarian into his Lunch Lady series.  I hold out hope that I was the inspiration for the photographer.  I can totally make my neck do that thing in the first panel.

• Travis calls it a little harmless spitballing about the Newbery.  Using the recent Goodreads thread on Newbery potential winners he speculates on the up-and-comers (reminding me in the process that my fall prediction list should come out soon).  It ties in nicely to Monica Edinger’s recent Educating Alice post Thoughts on Newbery: The Problem with Popularity Contests too.

• In case you weren’t aware of it, the Onion A.V. Club has decided that young adult literature is interesting enough to highlight on occasion (articles equating it with chick lit and meritless copyright suits notwithstanding).  In the series YA Why? they split their time evenly between new hot titles and older fare.  Stay for the new stuff but eschew the looks back in time.  Odds are whatever title you see there, the Fine Lines column by Lizzie Skurnick did it better.

• “…the critic is someone who, when his knowledge, operated on by his taste in the presence of some new example of the genre he’s interested in…hungers to make sense of that new thing, to analyze it, interpret it, make it mean something.”  Flatterer.  As an aspiring book critic of children’s fare, I was much taken with the Darryl Campbell Millions article Is This Book Bad, Or Is It Just Me? The Anatomy of Book Reviews which seeks to not only summarize in brief the spats and spits in the adult literary criticism world (a fine and fancy recap if ever there was one) then goes so far as to define the four classical elements of literary appraisal (“Reaction. Summary. Aesthetic and historical appraisal”).  This one is your required reading of the day.  Many thanks to Marjorie Ingall (who will be part of the literary criticism panel at this year’s KidLitCon) for the link.

If we feel like getting technical about it the mid-year point really would have been around the time of the last ALA Conference.  Alas, I’ve put it off until now.  No longer!  With my ear planted firmly to the ground I’ve been snuffling about (weirdo mixed metaphor alert), talking to folks, trying to get a sense of where the buzz lies.  Buzz is a pitch poor method of predicting this award, but it’s all we’ve got, guys.  It’s all we’ve got.

On to the maybes!!!

Newbery 2013

Let’s break this up in a new way, this time around.  Usually I just like to list the names and the books and leave it at that.  But a wave of creativity has crested over me and what the hey.  Let’s go with the flow.  It is summer, after all.

Early Contenders

In my last prediction post I listed five books with real potential.  Of those titles, only two came out in the spring.  The first of these, and the one that folks mention the most often, was of course, Wonder.  Usually when a book of this caliber gets this much attention early in a year (heck, it even appeared on my Top 100 Chapter Books Poll at #65) then there’s a backlash to contend with.  In this particular case, Wonder hasn’t had to deal with the kind of scrutiny a book like Okay for Now had to suffer.  That said, before he died Peter Sieruta came up with a list of questions that we need to seriously ask before we just hand a Newbery over to Wonder, no holds barred.  Still, even after we consider that list, nothing has quite toppled Wonder from its throne . . . and yet . . .

The other spring release I mentioned was The One and Only Ivan.  Sadly, Ivan’s not getting the support needed for a true Newbery break for the gold.  Early good word sustained it for a while, but the buzz has at the moment died down significantly.  Seems that there are other books out there from the spring getting more attention.  Books like . . .

Summer of the Gypsy Moths by Sara Pennypacker.  I’m woefully behind in my reviews or I would have tackled this one already.  Regardless, this book’s really remarkable from start to finish.  I like to hold up the cover and then pronounce, “It’s about two girls who bury a corpse in their backyard.  It’s Shallow Grave for kids”, which is a kickin’ description, if not ent

By my reckoning the minute Daylight Savings occurs it is high time to start throwing out some of the old predictions for a healthy, happy new year.  By now we’ve all processed the shock of the previous season and we may even have read all the Newbery winners (my children’s bookgroup is doing Breaking Stalin’s Nose at the moment and they’re a bit baffled by the illustrations).

As per usual if early award speak gives you a case of the hives you are free to go.  Now let’s go phone up The Ghost of Predictions Past and see what he can tell us about this unusual rite of spring.  According to him my track record is spotty at best:

2008 spring predictions: I get one Caldecott right (How I Learned Geography)

2009 spring predictions: I get two Newberys right (The Evolution of Calpurnia Tate and The (Mostly) True Adventures of Homer P Figg)

2010 spring predictions: I get one Newbery right (One Crazy Summer)

2011 spring predictions: I get one Newbery right (Inside Out and Back Again)

As you can see I’m better at Newberys than Caldecotts.  Still, I’m a hearty soul with plenty of bombast to hand out and about.  Plus this year I feel like my new job with the library is giving me a leg up.  Combine that with some of the buzz I’ve heard from folks I trust and you’ve got yourself a new reading list for the coming year.  Here’s how I see it (here’s how it is):

2013 Newbery Predictions

The One and Only Ivan by Katherine Applegate, illustrated by Patricia Castelao – They say that kid-appeal isn’t necessarily a Newbery Award requirement, but it certainly doesn’t hurt.  This isn’t Applegate’s first book to garner Newbery buzz, but to my mind it’s the book that has the best chance in the running.  Verse with purpose is how I’m labeling this one.  It balances the ability to make readers cry with a surprisingly light touch.  It’s a downer without being a downer (if that makes any sense at all).  Expect to hear a lot of Ivan debates in the coming year.

Starry River of the Sky by Grace Lin – I have sneaky friends in important places who get to read all the good stuff before anyone else.  That’s how I heard about Lin’s follow up to 12 Comments on Newbery/Caldecott 2013: The Spring Prediction Edition, last added: 3/13/2012