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Jerald M. Jellison has been a Professor of Psychology at the University of Southern California for three decades.  His book, Life After Grad School: Getting From A to B, looks at the unspoken truth that less than 5 percent of the 2.5 million graduate students in the U.S. will realize their dream of becoming a professor.  Jellison looks at what the other 95 percent should do, illuminating the transition from academia to a satisfying and well-paying job with a company, government agency, or not-for-profit organization.  In the excerpt below Jellison addresses how students should find out if they are destined to become a tenure track professor.

What are your prospects of being hired as a tenure track professor?

This is a difficult question.  The answers can set off emotional alarms that make you want to scream, “I don’t want to think about it.”  It’s hard to estimate whether you’ll be hired because so many extraneous factors can influence your chances.  It can be difficult to get a precise answer to this question in the best of times.  Making a reasonable estimate is even more complex when the job market is in flux.  You also have to consider the ranking of your graduate program, your advisor’s academic reputation, and the strength of the letter of recommendation he’ll write.

University budgets are currently shrinking, and there are fewer openings for new faculty.  The shortage of positions is exacerbated because many older professors are postponing their retirement.  It was never easy to become an assistant professor – now it’s much more competitive.

On the other hand, a few stellar students can feel confident they’ll be hired for a tenure-track position.  The vast majority of grad students live with uncertainty.  There are some other sources of data you could use to determine your academic possibilities.  Compare your vitae with those of advanced students who will probably be hired as tenure-track assistant professors.

You could also contact recent graduates who became professors.  Ask their perspective on the current job market.  If they can review your vitae prior to the discussion, they may be wiling to give you a dispassionate estimate of your prospects.  Recent grads from your program will have direct experience with the job market.  They can give you realistic perspective.

In addition to talking to your major professor, you can also talk to other professors in the department. It may be challenging to create a climate in which they feel free to give you their honest judgment.  No one likes to deliver bad news, so unless your performance has been truly dismal, professors are inclined to paint a cautiously optimistic picture.

When professors make their predictions, listen carefully to their use of any qualifying phrase.  They may be trying to protect themselves, as well as you, by veiling a pessimistic estimate.  Listen for phrases such as “assuming you are very productive” … “if you really strengthen your vitae” … “if you can get all those papers published.”

To increase the chances they’ll be completely forthright, you must establish a context for the discussion by making it undeniably clear that you want the truth.  Reassure them that if they give you their realistic perspective, you won’t have a meltdown in their office, or go on a martini marathon.  Alert them ahead of time that you are seeking their advice because you respect their opinion.  As you enter their office, reaffirm that you’re looking forward to a frank conversation.  Explain that you want the truth because you need to make some hard decisions.

The writing may already be on the wall.  You may have a good idea of what each professor will say.  Prior to these meetin