Enter Wilhelmina. Older sister (by 2 yrs.) She likes to show off her reading skills. She dislikes her brother–very much.Filed …

Continue reading →

Nook Kindle PDF iTunes on the iPad, look for it in the iBook Store

I recently had the privilege of listening to Sara Pennypacker, author of the Clementine series of early-chapter books. Her books are widely recognized as a forte in capturing the reader and drawing them in. The opening scene of Book 1 has Clementine, a third grade dynamo, sitting in the principal’s office and a frequent comment is that the scene is hilarious (I’ve written about how well this scene orients the reader, too.)

But Pennypacker says she didn’t write it humorous. Rather, the reader wrote it funny. What does she mean?

Consider this line:
“Someone should tell you not to answer the phone in the principal’s office, if that’s a rule.”

It’s funny. You know from this line that Clementine has answered the principal’s phone line and it resulted in disaster. Even without details or without the usual “Tell-Don’t-Show,” it’s funny. But the humor is created in the reader’s mind, by your imagination.

The technique of leaving out the most dramatic part in favor of letting the reader create meaning is useful, especially in opening lines. The danger is when it’s used too often or if it is used as a lazy crutch or excuse for not Show-Don’t-Telling. In other words, most of the time, the important details should be shown, not told. But sometimes, leaving out details and letting the reader fill them in is OK. It’s effective in Clementine’s opening page because it fits Clementine’s voice as a naive character and because Pennypacker already gave the reader specific details: Hamburger Surprise at lunch, Margaret’s mother coming to get her and so on.

Also, while what is left out is not specific, it is absolutely clear. The reader is not confused by having something left out. Clarity rules.

Notice, though, that this introduction is swiftly followed by a conventional scene with a stricter adherence to the Show-Don’t-Tell maxim. Used too often, leaving out the most dramatic part would just confuse the reader.

Another place to leave out the most dramatic information is when you set up a new scene. The tendency is to provide a summary–that holdover from having to write a thesis statement, probably.

Consider:

Emily knocked on Bruce’s door. She just had to make it through his Christmas party.

Here, we’re told in a summary statement what the upcoming scene will entail, “making it through his Christmas party.” Instead, you could use a scene cut and let the reader experience the party for themselves.

Emily knocked on the door.
* * *
Emily wanted to plug her ears against the jazzed up Christmas carols that blasted above the crowd noise. She edged around the edge of the room toward the punch table, avoiding an elbow here and barely keeping a cowboy boot from stomping on her foot, hoping to find someone familiar.

Here, we are experiencing the party with Emily. Leaving out the summary statement about making it through the party strengthens the reader’s curiosity about what happens next. That’s the only thing we leave in question: what happens next? Don’t undercut this natural curiosity by summarizing the action before you present it. Time enough later for Emily to gripe to Joe about the lousy party.

Pennypacker had a hard task, to introduce a specific scene, to set up a voice, a character, a situation, and eventually a series of books about this endearing third grader. She succeeded by letting the reader participate in creating humor.

The GalleyCat Facebook page has become an important part of our community outreach. In the upper right-hand corner of our blog, we’ve added a new permanent link to our page on the world’s biggest social network.

If you want to share your new book with GalleyCat readers, you can do it at this Facebook link. If you want to Facebook your upcoming literary event on GalleyCat, follow this link for directions.

We’ve also collected a number of resources for writers, readers and publishing professionals on the social network. Check it out…

continued…

New Career Opportunities Daily: The best jobs in media.

Hickem, Catherine. (2012). Heaven in Her Arms: Why God Chose Mary to Raise His Son and What It Means for You. Nashville, TN: Thomas Nelson. ISBN 978-1-4002-0036-8.

What do we know of Mary?

 What we know of Mary’s family is that she is of the house of David; it is from her lineage Jesus fulfilled the prophecy. Given the archeological ruins of the various places thought to have been living quarters for their family, it is likely the home was a room out from which sleeping quarters (cells) branched. As Mary and her mother Anne would be busy maintaining the household, with young Mary working at her mother’s command, it is likely Anne would be nearby or in the same room during the Annunciation. Thus Mary would not have had a scandalous secret to later share with her parents but, rather, a miraculous supernatural experience, the salvific meaning of which her Holy parents would understand and possibly even witnessed.

 Mary and Joseph were betrothed, not engaged. They were already married, likely in the form of a marriage contract, but the marriage had not yet been “consummated”. This is why he was going to divorce her when he learned of the pregnancy. If it were a mere engagement, he would have broken it off without too much scandal.

 Married but not yet joined with her husband, her mother would prepare her by teaching her all that she needed to know. This is further reason to assume that Mary would be working diligently under her mother’s eye when the Annunciation took place.

 We know that her cousin Elizabeth’s pregnancy was kept in secret for five months, and not made known until the sixth month when the Angel Gabriel proclaimed it to Mary. We know Mary then rushed to be at her elderly cousin’s side for three months (the remaining duration of Elizabeth’s pregnancy), and that this rushing appeared to be in response to Elizabeth’s pregnancy (to congratulate her), not an attempt to hide Mary’s pregnancy. Note how all of this is connected to Elizabeth’s pregnancy rather than Mary’s circumstances. As Mary was married to Joseph, he likely would have been informed of the trip. Had the intent been to hide Mary, she would have remained with Elizabeth until Jesus was born, not returned to her family after the first trimester, which is just about the time that her pregnancy was visible and obvious.

 So we these misconceptions clarified, we can put Mary’s example within an even deeper context and more fully relate to her experience. We can imagine living in a faith-filled family who raises their child in strict accordance of God’s word. The extended family members may not understand, and certainly their community will not, so Mary, Anne and Joachim, and Joseph face extreme scandal as well as possible action from Jewish authorities. But they faced this together steep in conversation with God, providing a model for today’s family.

 Although sometimes scriptural interpretations are flavored with modern-day eye, overall this book will be more than just a quick read for a young mother (or new bride, or teen aspiring to overcome the challenges of American culture, or single parent losing her mind). It is a heartwarming reflection with many examples that open up conversation with God. As an experienced psychotherapist, the author’s examples are spot on and easy to relate to. We do not need to have had the same experiences to empathize, reflect, and pursue meaning; we see it around us in everyday life. As such, a reflective look upon these examples can help one overcome an impasse in their own relationship with God and also open the reader up to self-knowledge as Hi

BOOK OF THE DAY-June

Plan in advance for father’s day! The month of June is dedicated to books for dads and boys…don’t worry, a few dads & daughter books thrown in too! Good list for reluctant readers as well as summer vacation. Enjoy!

BOOK OF THE DAY-May

In celebration of Mother’s day, moms, women and daughters, recommendations span ages and areas of interest. Great for summer vacation reading too!

BOOK OF THE DAY-April

The full April list is here. Get a sneak peak at the 2nd half of the month and stock up for summer vacation too!

BOOK OF THE DAY-March

Spring is upon us, and you can prepare for both Spring and Summer vacations with plenty of good books! Check out recommendations for all ages, plus DVD’s and teaching too!

BOOK OF THE DAY-February

No need to wait until the end of February for the complete list. Here it is–plan ahead! Click on the link above, and also follows us on Facebook at Litland Reviews http://facebook.com/Litlandreviews

BOOK OF THE DAY-January

Here it is! The book of the day challenge, to recommend a new book or related media every day in 2012. January is complete, and attached for handy download–just click on the above link. February is on the way! “Friend” Litland Reviews on Facebook to see daily recommendations as they post. http://facebook.com/Litlandreviews

Darcy Pattison Reading

But what if there’s nothing going in? I’ve been reading less lately and it shows in less coming out. Well, that’s not strictly true. I’ve been reading, but mostly internet articles, websites, blogs–not books. This week, though,I’ve read two novels and have a stack of a couple more to read. It’s a breath of fresh air, a coming home that I didn’t know I needed to do.

Why did I leave? I’ve been swept up in the online world for a bit this year. It’s a vast, uncharted world of opinion, with bright spots of voice and humor. Reading around has been interesting, but even here, my habits were shallow, skimming and not staying for a long time on any site.

But this week, I read two novels and was swept away in Story, falling in love again with the language, characters, events,with the way you get lost in the flow of a story. Hours pass, as you travel, meet new people, feel strange emotions, live in the moment of Story. I read Eva Ibbotson’s fantasy middle grade novel, The Secrets of Platform 13. Then I jumped to an adult mystery with Look Again, by Lisa Scottoline. In line next is an adult fantasy novel, and waiting in the corner is a fantastic new bookstore I’ve just discovered. Meanwhile, I’ve stood in B&N and read through board book after board book, in search of the special ones to give to my new grandson for Christmas. From short to long, baby audience to adult, I am devouring Story.

I am gearing up to write and write and write a new story in January. And this is the right preparation: read and read and read. Literature in, literature out.

What books are you currently reading? What are you giving for Christmas presents?

NEW EBOOK Available on Nook Kindle PDF Now an iBook

This is an odds and ends day! Lots of illness in my family, so I’m just trying to hang in there and get my 750 words written today.

Independent Bookstores Get Branded eBook Reader

IndieBound Mobile APP (only for Android right now, but soon for iOS) was released this week. It is a branded ebook reader, The IndieBound Reader™, that allows you to order shop local bookstores’ websites and purchase books. Read more here.

Children’s Book Character Costumes

Oliver is available to visit your school.

Nominations for Top Writing Blogs

Write To Done is having its “Nominate Your Favorite Writing Blog: 6th Annual Top 10 Blogs for Writers Contest”. Would you nominate Fiction Notes for this contest? Or, nominate your favorite blog?

Here’s how:

• Leave a comment with Darcy Pattison’s Fiction Notes at http://www.darcypattison.com. (Cut and paste, if it helps.)
• You must include a comment on why Fiction Notes deserves to be in the Top 10 Blogs for Writers, or the nomination doesn’t count.

DEADLINE: December 10, 2011.
Yes, I need you to nominate this blog, because to be considered, a a blog must be nominated more than once and the more the merrier. Hey–thanks. I appreciate each and every one of you.

NEW EBOOK Available on Nook Kindle PDF Now an iBook

End of the Line: A Parker Noble Mystery

Manno, Mike (2010) End of the Line: A Parker Noble Mystery. Five Star Publishing of Gale, Cengage Learning. ISBN 978-1594148637. Litland recommends of interest to adults, acceptable for older teens.

 Publisher description:  When former banker R. J. Butler is found murdered on a city transit bus, police take little time making a connection with the embezzlement at his former bank. But is that the motive for his murder? State police detective Sergeant Jerome Stankowski and his persnickety “partner,” Parker Noble, are called to investigate and run into a host of possibilities including a trophy wife on drugs and an ex-wife desperately needing a church annulment R. J. was blocking..

 Our thoughts:

 The second installment of the Parker Noble series, End of the Line, is a fun yet engaging, quick-paced detective mystery. Parker Noble may be the genius who solves the crimes, but it is Detective “Stan” Stankowski’s antics both on and off the job that lighten the story. Truly a man’s man, Stankowski enjoys girl watching while being easily manipulated by his somewhat-girlfriend Buffy the reporter.  He  tries to juggle dating 3 girls at the same time, each end up having a role in solving the mystery. Meanwhile, the contrast of Parker’s rigidly-ordered life to Stan’s adds color, and both humor and clues surface throughout the story just often enough to keep the reader alert. My favorite dialogue pertains to Parker’s dog, Buckwheat Bob the basset hound, who listens to talk radio while Parker is at work:

(Stan) “I take it that the human voice is soothing for him?”…(Parker) ”Not really, he likes to listen to the political talk”…”You don’t think he understands all of that, do you?”…”Don’t know, Stanley. All I can tell you is that he’s turned into quite a Republican.” LOL!

 A cozy mystery written for adults, it would probably have a PG rating if a movie: use of the bird finger; one suspect referred to as tramp, hussy, nude model; Buffy pressuring Stan into taking a vacation together. However, Stan remains chaste in his girl-chasing and the story is focused on the relationships between all the characters, which adds depth, interest and a few chuckles along the way. A fun story available in the Litland.com Bookstore.

The Weed That Strings the Hangman’s Bag

 Bradley, Alan. (2010) The Weed That Strings the Hangman’s Bag. (The Flavia de Luce Series) Bantam, division of Random House. ISBN 978-0385343459. Litland recommends ages 14-100!

 Publisher’s description:  Flavia de Luce, a dangerously smart eleven-year-old with a passion for chemistry and a genius for solving murders, thinks that her days of crime-solving in the bucolic English hamlet of Bishop’s Lacey are over—until beloved puppeteer Rupert Porson has his own strings sizzled in an unfortunate rendezvous with electricity. But who’d do such a thing, and why? Does the madwoman who lives in Gibbet Wood know more than she’s letting on? What about Porson’s charming but erratic assistant? All clues point toward a suspicious death years earlier and a case the local constables can’t solve—without Flavia’s help. But in getting so close to who’s secretly pulling the strings of this dance of death, has our precocious heroine finally gotten in way over her head? (Bantam Books)

 Our thoughts:

 Flavia De Luce is back and in full force! Still precocious. Still brilliant. Still holding an unfortunate fascination with poisons…

 As with the first book of the series, The Sweetness at the Bottom of the Pie, we begin with a seemingly urgent, if not sheer emergency, situation that once again turns out to be Flavia’s form of play.  We also see the depth of her sister’s cruelty as they emotionally badger their little sister, and Flavia’s immediate plan for the most cruel of poisoned deaths as revenge. Readers will find themselves chuckling throughout the book!

 And while the family does not present the best of role models (smile), our little heroine does demonstrate good character here and there as she progresses through this adventure. As explained in my first review on this series, the protagonist may be 11 but that doesn’t mean the book was written for 11-year olds :>) For readers who are parents, however (myself included), we shudder to wonder what might have happened if we had bought that chemistry kit for our own kids!

 Alas, the story has much more to it than mere chemistry. The author’s writing style is incredibly rich and entertaining, with too many amusing moments to even give example of here. From page 1 the reader is engaged and intrigued, and our imagination is easily transported into  the 1950’s Post WWII England village. In this edition of the series, we have more perspective of Flavia as filled in by what the neighbors know and think of her. Quite the manipulative character as she flits  around Bishop’s Lacy on her mother’s old bike, Flavia may think she goes unnoticed but begins to learn not all are fooled…

 The interesting treatment of perceptions around German prisoners of war from WWII add historical perspective, and Flavia’s critical view of villagers, such as the Vicar’s mean wife and their sad relationship, fill in character profiles with deep colors. Coupled with her attention to detail that helps her unveil the little white lies told by antagonists, not a word is wasted in this story.

 I admit to being enviou

 The Wild West: 365 days

 Wallis, Michael. (2011) The Wild West: 365 days. New York, NY: Abrams Press. ISBN 978-0810996892 All ages.

 Publisher’s description: The Wild West: 365 Days is a day-by-day adventure that tells the stories of pioneers and cowboys, gold rushes and saloon shoot-outs in America’s frontier. The lure of land rich in minerals, fertile for farming, and plentiful with buffalo bred an all-out obsession with heading westward. The Wild West: 365 Days takes the reader back to these booming frontier towns that became the stuff of American legend, breeding characters such as Butch Cassidy and Jesse James. Author Michael Wallis spins a colorful narrative, separating myth from fact, in 365 vignettes. The reader will learn the stories of Davy Crockett, Wild Bill Hickok, and Annie Oakley; travel to the O.K. Corral and Dodge City; ride with the Pony Express; and witness the invention of the Colt revolver. The images are drawn from Robert G. McCubbin’s extensive collection of Western memorabilia, encompassing rare books, photographs, ephemera, and artifacts, including Billy the Kid’s knife.

 Our thoughts:

 This is one of the neatest books I’ve seen in a long time. The entire family will love it. Keep it on the coffee table but don’t let it gather dust!

 Every page is a look back into history with a well-known cowboy, pioneer, outlaw, native American or other adventurer tale complete with numerous authentic art and photo reproductions. The book is worth owning just for the original pictures.  But there is more…an index of its contents for easy reference too! Not only is this fun for the family, it is excellent for the school or home classroom use too. A really fun way to study the 19^th century too and also well received as a gift.  I highly recommend this captivating collection! See for yourself at the Litland.com Bookstore.

Wally the Cockeyed Cricket

 Brown, Bea (2011) Wally the Cockeyed Cricket. Mustang, OK: Tate Publishing. ISBN 978-1-61777-106-4.  Recommended age 8 and under.

 Publisher’s description:  When Wally the Cockeyed Cricket finds himself trapped in Mrs. Grumpydee’s kitchen, he sings a sad song and Mrs. Grumpydee’s locks Wally in a jar. When the jar is knocked over and shatters, Wally the Cockeyed Cricket sings a different tune.

 Our thoughts:

 Read it—see it—listen to it! The great thing about books from Tate Publishing is that you do not need to choose between print and audio formats because books have a code that permits you to download the audio version on MP3 too! The print version has beautifully captivating illustrations. Yet the young man (ok, he sounds young to this old reviewer!) reading the audio does an excellent job at it. A great enhancement to teach reading to little ones :>)

 Of course, the most important reason to consider adding this book to your child’s bookshelf is because they will enjoy the story! As evidenced by its title, Wally looks a little different than most crickets. He doesn’t think anything of this difference and is happy as can be. Until, that is, he unfortunately wanders into Mrs. Grumpydee’s kitchen! Captured, bullied and made a public spectacle, Wally never loses courage or confidence. Helped with the aid of a complete stranger, he is rescued and makes a new friend. Virtues exhibited are courage, justice and friendship.  A feel-good story where the good guys win! Great parent-child sharing, Pre-3^rd grade class or homeschool, bedtime reading, gift giving, therapy use, and family book club! Grab your copy at the Litland.com Bookstore.

Abe’s Lucky Day

 Warren, Jill. (2011) Abe’s Lucky Day. Outskirts Press Inc. ISBN 978-1-4327-7305-2. Age 8 and under.

 Publisher’s description:  Any day can be a lucky day.  Abe is a homeless man who lives in the alley behind a bakery and winter is coming. What will happen on his lucky day that will change his life? 

Our thoughts:

 Introducing us to the varied faces of distress and homelessness, Abe’s Lucky Day reminds us that , while food, warm clothes and dry beds feel great, helping others feels even better. Illustrations permit the child to imagine themselves in the story, and so can feel the heartwarming rewards of selflessness…definitely good for your Litland.com family book club or a preschool classroom. Part luck and lots of kindness, Abe’s Lucky Day infuses a desire for kindness and generosity into its reader’s mind and heart, and is sure to strengthen bonds within the family reading it as well :>) Great for gift-giving, pick up your copy in our Litland.com Bookstore!

 12 days of sci-fi: day 2.

Here we go again! Now from that somber but hopeful story from the past by Andrew Seddon, we move to a more fast-paced view of the future given by Karina Fabian:

 Antivenin by Karina Fabian                      LOYALTY , COURAGE

 Editor’s comment: “While Ann and “Tommie” were born and raised in space, Rita left Earth and joined the Order of Our Lady of the Rescue while in her 30s, and is unsure what she’s doing there.” 

 Nuns in space? Who would have thought it? Karina Fabian, of course; the same type of creative mind that fueled man-on-the-moon stories a century or more past. A religious order whose habit is t-shirt and loose pants…my kind of community! Sr. Rita is realistic with faults and proverbial warts to which we can all relate. Snake-phobic and feeling totally awkward, she doesn’t allow this to overcome her sense of commitment to others. Loyalty to her order breeds courage, and from courage comes healing of self-esteem and doubt. A great story of teamwork and adventure. Don’t miss out on it, grab a copy of Infinite Space, Infinite God II http://ow.ly/4F48e

 (About the author: Karina Fabian writes a wide variety of fiction involving characters with faith.  Her first anthology, Infinite Space, Infinite God I, won the EPPIE award for best sci-fi. Her humorous fantasy involving a dragon and nun detective team, Magic, Mensa and Mayhem, won the 2010 INDIE for best fantasy. She’s also written a small devotional with her father, Deacon Steve Lumbert, Why God Matters. Visit her website at http://www.fabianspace.com )

Are Ebooks finally ready for Prime Time?

I hated it when, about ten years ago, my local library went to the online digital version of the reference book, Books in Print. I tried to look up something about quilts. There were about 5-600 entries beginning with Quilt in the title, and in the paper version, I’d just flip a couple pages and Voila! 2 seconds to find what I needed. In the online version, I had to go through about 30-40 screens before I came to the end of the Quilt titles. Wasted time. Are digital versions or ebooks still a waste of time? Maybe.

Are Ebooks Viable? Yes.

When are ebooks used the most? When traveling.
Friends report that they love to load up several ebooks and keep the weight down in their luggage. Ebooks are used in schools, when textbooks are changed often, as a way to reduce costs to the student. Ebooks are here to stay and will probably co-exist with paper versions for a long time.

We’re going to read ebooks, that battle has been won. The next question is this: are dedicated ebook readers the best option for reading ebooks? Should you buy a Kindle or Sony ebook reader (or some other brand) as a Christmas gift?

Dedicated Readers, iPods and Screens. The biggest problem with reading ebooks has traditionally been the inferior quality of screens and the eye-strain of reading from a screen. In some ways, this is a McGuffin, because, well, we all read online right now, and many of us read many hours a day from a computer screen.

Enter e-ink. It is supposed to be a higher quality, less eye-strain and should be available in color in another year or so. So, let’s agree that the screen-quality problem is about to be solved, or else call it a moot point.

What Happened While You Were So Self-Absorbed. But there’s a complication when deciding on how to read ebooks: technology hasn’t stood still while e-ink has been developing. We now have the iPhone and other smart phones. Here’s where I think the current discussion of ebooks goes wrong. I mean, how many pieces of technology do I want to carry around? The answer for most of us is, not many. Which is why the Apps market for smart phones is so dynamic right now. If I’m carrying around this smart phone, which is always hooked up to the net, then why not do everything on this one piece of equipment.

Optimal Screen Size for Multiple Tasks. Which changes the problem from screen quality to screen size. What is the optimal size screen for multiple tasks? For me, most smart phones fail this test. I want huge, 18″ or bigger, flat-screen, best-quality-I-can-afford monitors. But you can’t carry THAT around with you. And now, we’re down to this question: what size screen is the best compromise for portability, flexibility and easy viewing? What’s the best compromise of features and quality?

Do you see what has changed? My requirements for an ebook reader has been changed by the advent of smart phones. I now want one piece of electronics that has instant, almost-everywhere access to the internet; the screen must be large enough to read comfortably (very important), so I have flexibility in choosing what tasks I’ll do on this device; it wouldn’t hurt either, if it also included a keyboard in a usable size, instead of the teensy-tiny Blackberry and other smart phone keyboards.

Netbooks. For me, the answer is a NetBook.
Can you read ebooks on a netbook? Yes.
Is the netbook dedicated to one and only one task of reading an ebook? No. It’s versatile.

Yep. You gotta get feedback on your novel and you gotta act on it. On everything? Yep. But what if. . .

Yes! Oh! No? Uh-oh! Huh?

Okay. Here are five reactions I’ve had to recent feedback: Yes! Oh! No? Uh-oh! Huh?

• Yes! It’s great when feedback confirms what you were already thinking needed work. You knew this area was weak, and sure enough, the reader confirmed it. These changes or revisions to your novel are made easier by this confirmation.



• Oh! These are unexpected, new ideas for ways to solve a problem in a particular way. I love it when the reader gets what I’m doing in this novel and suggests a perfect revision. These are often ideas about adding, omitting, changing or rearranging.

For example, one comment recently was to take a line from page 76 and use it as the opening line. I’m still not sure it will work, but it’s shaken me out of my rut on that first line and now I’m more likely to find the right place to start.

Related posts:

1. 2 Types of Feedback
2. Critique Groups
3. Listen

By Evan Schnittman

Last week two announcements were made that support the claims made by yours truly regarding sales of Kindles and Sony Readers, and the corresponding rise in ebook sales that will occur in 2008.

TIME Magazine reported that sales of the 130,000 titles available in the Kindle Store represented 12% of the sales of the exact same 130,000 titles in other formats. This is a significant increase as Jeff Bezos reported at the end of May this figure was 6% of 125,000 titles.

The doubling of the percentage on a bigger base points to two very interesting trends – the first is the clearly growing number of Kindle owners – I cannot imagine that kind of ebook sales growth is possible on a similar number of devices. The device sales must be skyrocketing.

The other trend that may be exposed here is the sheer number of ebooks being purchased. Last month some of the bigger trade publishers announced they were increasing the number of titles available for the Kindle. This was done not because of any arm-twisting by Amazon – but clearly as a response to the demand. And just as lack of product has helped to keep ebooks unsuccessful to date, the opposite is helping drive consumer enthusiasm and buying.

More evidence that the e-ink based devices such as Kindle and Sony’s Reader have been selling well comes from further up the supply chain, from the screen manufacturer, PVI. As I reported in the last article, PVI manufactures the 6 inch EPD for Sony and Amazon (the iRex Iliad does not use a 6 inch screen) and in a report files in DIGITIMES last week, PVI reported “Small- to medium-size panel supplier Prime View International (PVI) saw its June sales rebound 23% sequentially to NT$663 million (US$21.79 million) as demand for niche products, including electrophoretic displays (EPDs), picked up, according to the company.” While this is hardly definitive, it should be enough to support the theory that e-ink reader sales are increasing.

This is good news for ebooks – and more good news happened with the opening of Apple’s App Store for the iPhone and iPod Touch. Even though I am not a big believer in LCD screen ebook readers (I find them very difficult on the eyes for immersive reading), I am thrilled that the iPhone/iPod juggernaut will now contain a variety of choices for reading ebooks. I look forward to seeing how ebook retailers, wholesalers, and publishers tap into this wonderful market and what inventive business models Mr. Jobs creates for ebooks. Oh, wait, Steve Jobs doesn’t think Americans read – maybe that dream of an iBooks store is a just pipe dream…

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By Evan Schnittman

[A Full Disclosure Note From Evan] Let’s be clear from the start: Neither Amazon nor Sony have told me anything. I get nada, zilch, bupkis when I ask even the most circumspect questions about their respective device sales. If it has to do with Kindle or Reader, I get the standard “go away” line. I have not manipulated sales data, be it OUP’s or any other publisher. I have not analyzed Amazon or Sony ebook sales statistics or rankings. I have not found any secret documents. I have not broken into the vault, I have not cracked the code, I have not had prophetic dreams - well, not about any e-ink devices anyway…

What I do have is a subscription to DIGITIMES that has led me to some pretty outlandish and, I think, substantiated conclusions about Kindle and Sony Reader sales figures. Before you dismiss me as loopy check out the evidence…

When the Kindle first launched there was plenty of predictions about how it and its predecessor the Sony Reader would sell. Over time the chatter died down, halted partly by the Kindle going out of stock. At the end of April, the chatter returned and hit full volume after last week’s Book Expo America in Los Angeles. The catalyst was Jeff Bezos’ speech, which let out some tantalizing, yet cryptic information on ebook sales volume at the Kindle store. The chatter, as reported in the NY Times, has publishers and others speculating that Amazon has sold somewhere between 10,000 - 50,000 Kindles.

I think all the speculations are completely wrong. By my calculations, combined sales of the Amazon Kindle and the Sony Reader will be 1,000,000 units in 2008. This estimate is based on solid data.

The Evidence
Amazon and Sony both use the 6-inch electrophoretic display (EPD), also known as an e-ink screen. Both companies buy their EPD’s from Prime View International (PVI) of Taiwan. DIGITIMES, a daily news service covering the Taiwanese IT market, reported on April 18th, in a story entitled PVI EDP shipments to grow sharply in 2008, that PVI expects EPD module shipments to reach 120,000 units PER MONTH in the second half of 2008. It further explains that the unit price of the screens are $60-$70 per unit and that the current volume has been 60-80,000 units PER MONTH.

Also intriguing is the article’s claim that 60% of the EPD’s go to Amazon and 40% go to Sony. This is an important factor as it implies that there is a market beyond Kindle – a very, very strong market. Taking the figures at face value, Sony was selling (or at least manufacturing) an average of 28,000 readers per month (I took 70,000 units as the average sold per month and then 40% of that). Using this monthly rate, the annual sales of the Sony Reader are at nearly 350,000 units. Using the same formula, Amazon is ordering an average of 42,000 units per month, which will add up to over 500,000 units sold this year.

With production ramping up to 120,000 units a month these numbers will look much better - to the tune of a combined 1.4 million units over 12 months! Even with the Kindle out of stock for a big chunk of the first and second quarter, combined sales of these two e-ink devices in 2008 will most likely top 1 million. If a million devices are out on the street looking to feed, and we know they primarily eat one kind of food, ebooks, then what must this mean for the ebook sales?

Jeff Bezos said last week that ebook sales in the Kindle store had hit 6% of book unit sales. What this means is that of the 125,000 titles available in the Kindle store, the sales of ebooks represented 6% of the sales of those same 125,000 titles in print formats. Another interesting thing that Bezos said was that Kindle buyers purchase at a rate of 2.5 times more than print book buyers… food for thought when thinking through your ebook strategy.

One can draw some ebook sales conclusions from this information. For example, the number 2 seller at the Kindle store is The Last Lecture by Randy Pausch. According to Bookscan, in 4 weeks this book has sold 784,158 units. For the sake of argument, lets ascribe 75,000 units (10% of total sales, a reasonable guess) to Amazon. If Kindle sales were 6%, then Amazon would have already sold 4,500 ebooks. That’s 4,500 people with Kindle’s buying a single title in 4 weeks!

While its clearly amazing that in one month an ebook can sell 4,500 units it is not the best way to calculate the ebook sales impact of Kindle and Reader. A better way to approach this is through good old-fashioned guess-timation. Taking stock of my own experience and the experiences of others I know, I found that ebook buying on either the Sony Reader or the Amazon Kindle ranges from 5 ebooks to over 100 ebooks. Assuming that anyone who buys an e-ink ebook reader is doing so to read ebooks, lets assume that 10 ebooks a year is a reasonable purchase estimate. Using this logic, we should see 10 million ebooks purchased for these two devices in 2008.

The IDPF estimates that in 2007 ebook sales income was $31,800,000 with the caveat that the actual retail income could be as much as double due to retailer discounts, so lets assume that the sales actually totaled $60,000,000. If we use an average retail price of $12 per ebook sold, and if consumers will buy 10 ebooks a year, then they will spend $120 on average, per device. That would lead us to $120,000,000 in ebook sales for the Kindle and the Reader in 2008, double all ebook sales in 2007. (For those of you who cannot swallow the idea of 10 books purchased per device – cut it in half. The result is $60,000,000 in ebook sales – as much as last year!)

Success in technology, like everything else, leads to more success. It’s not uncommon to see five-fold growth the year following a successful technology product launch. Think iPod, think Wii, think Blackberry. Whole micro-economies emerge around products that range from accelerated content creation, and all sorts of aftermarket products and services. Versions 2.0 and beyond create better and better devices. The better the devices, the more accessories, the more content there is, and soon a whole world of business opportunity is rolling downhill picking up speed.

With this in mind, I can easily imagine the success of Kindle and Reader dramatically expanding next year and growing by a factor of five. If that happens, then the formula above leads to a completely new ebook economy. Five million devices would mean ebook sales of $1,200,000,000, which, by my estimation, is 1.3% of the current global book market of $90,000,000,000.

This reminds me of a comment I heard from a music industry executive at a conference a couple of years ago. “One day there was the iPod and iTunes. The next day 20% of our business was digital. The day after that more than 50% of our revenues came from digital music. Yeah, we believe in digital music now.”

I personally don’t see publishing becoming a 50% digital business as books and cd’s are completely different animals. But I sure can see that the 3% - 4% I once predicted isn’t such a crazy notion any more. And yes, I believe in ebooks.

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