How to use this Page

Tweet

By Elvin Lim

When the dust has settled on the electioneering frenzy of these final days, 2010, the third “change” election in a row, will better be read as an equilibrium restoring election.

In the Senate, Democrats are about to hand back just over half of their recent wins (5 seats in 2006, and another 8 in 2008) to the Republicans. Most predictions for the number of seats the Republicans will pick up in the House hover around 50 because there are currently 49 Democrats occupying seats in districts that voted for McCain in 2008, and they are about to relinquish these seats. Put another way, Democrats picked up 31 seats in 2006, and another 21 in 2008, and they’re about to return just about every one of them back to the Republicans.

This is not coincidence. It is the revealed majesty of the Newtonian system that the Framers of the Constitution set up, and our subliminal internalization of its logic. The Founders weren’t too fond of waves of popular passion, which is why they applied “a new science of politics” and created institutions arrayed alongside each other with the specific principle that “ambition must be made to counteract ambition.”

The invisible constitutional hand appears to be working. Now that Barbara Boxer has pulled ahead of Carly Fiorina in California, as has Joe Manchin over John Raese in West Virginia, it is likely that the Democratic firewall will hold just enough to prevent a Republican takeover of the Senate. To take over the Senate, Republicans must take the seats in CO, IL, NV, PA, and WA. Indeed, because Republicans are polling ahead in each of these last 5 races, a nearly perfect partisan equipoise is likely to occur in the Senate. That means the 112th Congress which starts business on January 3, 2011, will likely see a slim Republican majority in the House, and an even slimmer Democratic majority in the Senate.

Another way to think about this election as equilibrium restoring is to observe the net neutral effect of the Tea Party movement. In some places, Tea Party candidates are giving seasoned politicos a run for their money. Marco Rubio and Rand Paul now look like shoos-in for the senatorial seats in Florida and Kentucky, and Sharron Angle is in a statistical dead-heat with Senator Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada – which means, given the enthusiasm gap in favor of Republicans this year, Reid has a mountain to climb in the next two days.

Other Tea Party candidates, however, have turned out to be poor candidates. Principally, they don’t know how to handle the media and the rough-and-tumble of electoral politics. Some, like Joe Miller, think it’s OK to hand-cuff journalists; others, like Christine O’Donnell failed to realize that telling us “I’m not a witch” does not kill a rumor but sustains it. Others who have been inducted into office, like Scott Brown from Massachusetts, have long since forgotten their patrons. Like all third party movements since time immemorial, the Tea Party movement – now a flick of sunshine on a strange shore – is not likely to last more than one or two more electoral cycles.

All told, the Republicans are going to regain the seats they lost in 2006 and 2008. But, the electoral tsunami would most likely not be enough, as it was in 1994 or 2006, to flip both houses of Congress. And because of the truncated constitutional calendar, this year’s wave will stop short of the White House. The greatest prize of them all will stay in Democratic hands (a prize that will become especially valuable now that the Vice-president’s tie-breaking vote in the Senate will likely be activated in the months to come.)

A tsunami which converts half a branch is, arguably, no tsunami at all. For this to be a really significant wave that is more than equilibrium restoring, Republicans would need

Tweet

By Elvin Lim

The generic Democratic ballot appeared to rebound a little last week, in part because of the Republican Pledge to America, the story of Christine O’Donnell of Delaware spreading in the liberal base, and in part because of anticipation of the One Nation march on the National Mall this weekend. Could it be that Democrats may actually be able to keep their majorities in Congress if this trend continues?A cold look at history tells us that the odds are still low. One of the iron laws of American politics is that the president’s party almost always loses seats in the House in off-year, mid-term elections. Since 1870, there have been 35 mid-term elections and on all but four occasions, the president’s party lost seats in the House (the average loss is 34 seats).

On these four occasions, the gains made by the president’s party were minor. Republicans and Democrats respectively picked up 9 seats in 1902 and 1934 (perhaps having the last name, Roosevelt, had something to do with it.) In 1998, the Democrats picked up 4 seats in part because of the public backlash against the Clinton impeachment proceedings. In 2002, the Republicans did not lose any seats (or gain any) and bucked the historical trend because the country was rallying behind the president after September 11. (Democrats searching for hope this year should observe that three of these exceptions occurred in year two of a new presidency; 1998 was the only exception to the famous “six-year itch.”)

On average, Democrats have proven to be more adept at losing seats than Republicans, consistent with the conventional wisdom that the Republican party is a more orderly party and better able to act in unison than Democrats can. Democrats have typically lost 39 seats in the house in mid-term elections (exactly the number the Republicans need to take over to gain majority control this year), while Republicans have lost an average of 32 seats in mid-terms.

The virtue of being a not-so-big-tent party is that there tends to be less internal disagreement within the Republican party than in the Democratic party. It took a Tea Party movement to create dissension within Republican ranks, and yet some would argue that the movement has only rallied and unified the base.

On the Democratic side however, value, demographic, and ideological pluralism has always been a double-edged sword. For here is the telling history of 2009-2011: whereas Republicans are united that Obama was a mistake, Democrats are far from united about what mistakes Obama has made. The liberal faction of the Democratic party, for example, began losing faith in Obama when he compromised on universal health-care, and conservative “blue-dog” Democrats parted ways with their brethren just when the president proposed a middle-way in the form of a government sponsored “public option.” This is the perverse outcome of the party boasting more registered members than the Republican party (or for that matter, any other organization in the world.)

If Democrats, unlike Republicans, don’t do unity well, then it may well be that they could be better off, or at least no worse off than they are today, should Republicans take one or both Houses of Congress this year. If divided party control of government shall come to pass, it would be because the Democrats were already splintered from the very moment they were blessed with united or single party control of government. Put another way, it may not really matter what happens come November, because Democrats were only united in name in 2009-2011 (and that was possibly what made the infighting more intense).

Indeed, D

A bucket list is a list some people put together of things they want to do before they die. A bucket list, in my opinion is really dumb, because once you have completed it, there is nothing of value left for you to do, except die. With that said, I have put together my own bucket list, a list of buckets.

Metal Buckets

http://www.flickr.com/photos/tudor/3255427501/

Metal buckets are always nice when they get wet, bashed around a bit, and become rusty. Here we see some lovely buckets containing railroad spikes, all good and rusty. Presumably the other buckets have rusted out the bottom thus can not hold water any longer. Pity, after all a bottomless bucket is not nearly as useful.

Beach Buckets

http://www.flickr.com/photos/tinkerroll21/2684563098/

These beauties have the advantage in that they can come in many colors and can be filled with wet sand, and flipped over, to create wonderful sand castles. Every year hundreds, or perhaps thousands, of beach buckets are swept away from their owners. Many wash ashore a short time later but some are pulled out into the ocean and are swept to foreign sands. Perhaps some are floating in the giant sea of garbage that has been reported in the Pacific Ocean.

Hydraulic Buckets

http://www.flickr.com/photos/lori_greig/2034382703/

Buckets that can lift people up are pretty cool too. I wonder how much they charge for a ride in one of those things? These buckets have to be made out of hard fiberglass and usually have holes in the bottom to let rain water out. Attached to a hydraulic lift they can be controlled by the people in them or at the bottom of the device.

Water Bucket

http://www.flickr.com/photos/garydenness/1500856927/

When in need of a drink, or putting out a fire, nothing beats a water bucket. As we have learned earlier, a plastic bucket is probably the best for the job. This mans life would not be the same if not for his water bucket.  It might be all he owns. 

Bucket Seats

http://www.flickr.com/photos/cosmic_spanner/2706706837/

Individual seats in a car, which separate the driver from the other front seat passenger are called bucket seats, especially so when they are form fitted. While they do not allow for cuddling as the bench seat does, they are certainly more popular. As always, be sure to buckle up. 

Head Bucket

http://www.flickr.com/photos/mugley/511939333/

When out with somebody more pretty than yourself, a head bucket might come in handy. Not too common, but possibly they are a relatively new thing in the bucket industry, look for them to gain popularity in the next few years. Perhaps we shall see them in new colors.   I would stay away from metal head buckets as they would probably be hot. 

Feed Bucket

http://www.flickr.com/photos/charliebrewer/78335363/

Probably a favorite of many, the feed bucket is certainly preferred by other animals. I would have to say it is one of my favorites too, I love taking food out to my critters. If you personally do not like feed buckets you might like the bucket next on the list.

Ice Cream Bucket

http://www.flickr.com/photos/brettlider/67051314/

I scream, you scream, we all scream for ice cream buckets. No matter how old we get, most of us still love ice cream. Nowadays we can buy ice cream by the bucket full, but it use to be we made it in wooden buckets. My favorites are licorice, Butter Pecan, Maple Walnut, and most recently Ginger ice cream.

Garbage Bucket

http://www.flickr.com/photos/devnull/140485451/

Don’t ever throw away ice cream, eat it all. Use the garbage bucket only for things you cannot eat, or recycle. Garbage buckets tend to get smelly and are not often a favorite bucket of anyones. They are usually plastic, which is not really a good choice, because plastic is porous, meaning it can contain odors and bacteria.  Even my garbage bucket is plastic, I’m tough and a few million bacteria do not scare me. 

Really Big Buckets

http://www.flickr.com/photos/cindy47452/55239683/

Usually the front end loader part of a tractor is called the bucket, but they get even bigger than that on earth movers. This bucket is not even as big as they come, it has been neglected for some time. In quarries and mines up north they have huge buckets.

Feel free to make your own Bucket list.  I am tired. 

A bucket list is a list some people put together of things they want to do before they die. A bucket list, in my opinion is really dumb, because once you have completed it, there is nothing of value left for you to do, except die. With that said, I have put together my own bucket list, a list of buckets.

Metal Buckets

http://www.flickr.com/photos/tudor/3255427501/

Metal buckets are always nice when they get wet, bashed around a bit, and become rusty. Here we see some lovely buckets containing railroad spikes, all good and rusty. Presumably the other buckets have rusted out the bottom thus can not hold water any longer. Pity, after all a bottomless bucket is not nearly as useful.

Beach Buckets

http://www.flickr.com/photos/tinkerroll21/2684563098/

These beauties have the advantage in that they can come in many colors and can be filled with wet sand, and flipped over, to create wonderful sand castles. Every year hundreds, or perhaps thousands, of beach buckets are swept away from their owners. Many wash ashore a short time later but some are pulled out into the ocean and are swept to foreign sands. Perhaps some are floating in the giant sea of garbage that has been reported in the Pacific Ocean.

Hydraulic Buckets

http://www.flickr.com/photos/lori_greig/2034382703/

Buckets that can lift people up are pretty cool too. I wonder how much they charge for a ride in one of those things? These buckets have to be made out of hard fiberglass and usually have holes in the bottom to let rain water out. Attached to a hydraulic lift they can be controlled by the people in them or at the bottom of the device.

Water Bucket

http://www.flickr.com/photos/garydenness/1500856927/

When in need of a drink, or putting out a fire, nothing beats a water bucket. As we have learned earlier, a plastic bucket is probably the best for the job. This mans life would not be the same if not for his water bucket.  It might be all he owns. 

Bucket Seats

http://www.flickr.com/photos/cosmic_spanner/2706706837/

Individual seats in a car, which separate the driver from the other front seat passenger are called bucket seats, especially so when they are form fitted. While they do not allow for cuddling as the bench seat does, they are certainly more popular. As always, be sure to buckle up. 

Head Bucket

http://www.flickr.com/photos/mugley/511939333/

When out with somebody more pretty than yourself, a head bucket might come in handy. Not too common, but possibly they are a relatively new thing in the bucket industry, look for them to gain popularity in the next few years. Perhaps we shall see them in new colors.   I would stay away from metal head buckets as they would probably be hot. 

Feed Bucket

http://www.flickr.com/photos/charliebrewer/78335363/

Probably a favorite of many, the feed bucket is certainly preferred by other animals. I would have to say it is one of my favorites too, I love taking food out to my critters. If you personally do not like feed buckets you might like the bucket next on the list.

Ice Cream Bucket

http://www.flickr.com/photos/brettlider/67051314/

I scream, you scream, we all scream for ice cream buckets. No matter how old we get, most of us still love ice cream. Nowadays we can buy ice cream by the bucket full, but it use to be we made it in wooden buckets. My favorites are licorice, Butter Pecan, Maple Walnut, and most recently Ginger ice cream.

Garbage Bucket

http://www.flickr.com/photos/devnull/140485451/

Don’t ever throw away ice cream, eat it all. Use the garbage bucket only for things you cannot eat, or recycle. Garbage buckets tend to get smelly and are not often a favorite bucket of anyones. They are usually plastic, which is not really a good choice, because plastic is porous, meaning it can contain odors and bacteria.  Even my garbage bucket is plastic, I’m tough and a few million bacteria do not scare me. 

Really Big Buckets

http://www.flickr.com/photos/cindy47452/55239683/

Usually the front end loader part of a tractor is called the bucket, but they get even bigger than that on earth movers. This bucket is not even as big as they come, it has been neglected for some time. In quarries and mines up north they have huge buckets.

Feel free to make your own Bucket list.  I am tired.