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From mechanical turks to science fiction novels, our mobile phones to The Terminator, we’ve long been fascinated by machine intelligence and its potential — both good and bad. We spoke to philosopher Nick Bostrom, author of Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies, about a number of pressing questions surrounding artificial intelligence and its potential impact on society.

Are we living with artificial intelligence today?

Mostly we have only specialized AIs – AIs that can play chess, or rank search engine results, or transcribe speech, or do logistics and inventory management, for example. Many of these systems achieve super-human performance on narrowly defined tasks, but they lack general intelligence.

There are also experimental systems that have fully general intelligence and learning ability, but they are so extremely slow and inefficient that they are useless for any practical purpose.

AI researchers sometimes complain that as soon as something actually works, it ceases to be called ‘AI’. Some of the techniques used in routine software and robotics applications were once exciting frontiers in artificial intelligence research.

What risk would the rise of a superintelligence pose?

It would pose existential risks – that is to say, it could threaten human extinction and the destruction of our long-term potential to realize a cosmically valuable future.

Would a superintelligent artificial intelligence be evil?

Hopefully it will not be! But it turns out that most final goals an artificial agent might have would result in the destruction of humanity and almost everything we value, if the agent were capable enough to fully achieve those goals. It’s not that most of these goals are evil in themselves, but that they would entail sub-goals that are incompatible with human survival.

For example, consider a superintelligent agent that wanted to maximize the number of paperclips in existence, and that was powerful enough to get its way. It might then want to eliminate humans to prevent us from switching if off (since that would reduce the number of paperclips that are built). It might also want to use the atoms in our bodies to build more paperclips.

Most possible final goals, it seems, would have similar implications to this example. So a big part of the challenge ahead is to identify a final goal that would truly be beneficial for humanity, and then to figure out a way to build the first superintelligence so that it has such an exceptional final goal. How to do this is not yet known (though we do now know that several superficially plausible approaches would not work, which is at least a little bit of progress).

How long have we got before a machine becomes superintelligent?

Nobody knows. In an opinion survey we did of AI experts, we found a median view that there was a 50% probability of human-level machine intelligence being developed by mid-century. But there is a great deal of uncertainty around that – it could happen much sooner, or much later. Instead of thinking in terms of some particular year, we need to be thinking in terms of probability distributed across a wide range of possible arrival dates.

So would this be like Terminator?

There is what I call a “good-story bias” that limits what kind of scenarios can be explored in novels and movies: only ones that are entertaining. This set may not overlap much with the group of scenarios that are probable.

For example, in a story, there usually have to be humanlike protagonists, a few of which play a pivotal role, facing a series of increasingly difficult challenges, and the whole thing has to take enough time to allow interesting plot complications to unfold. Maybe there is a small team of humans, each with different skills, which has to overcome some interpersonal difficulties in order to collaborate to defeat an apparently invincible machine which nevertheless turns out to have one fatal flaw (probably related to some sort of emotional hang-up).

One kind of scenario that one would not see on the big screen is one in which nothing unusual happens until all of a sudden we are all dead and then the Earth is turned into a big computer that performs some esoteric computation for the next billion years. But something like that is far more likely than a platoon of square-jawed men fighting off a robot army with machine guns.

If machines became more powerful than humans, couldn’t we just end it by pulling the plug? Removing the batteries?

It is worth noting that even systems that have no independent will and no ability to plan can be hard for us to switch off. Where is the off-switch to the entire Internet?

A free-roaming superintelligent agent would presumably be able to anticipate that humans might attempt to switch it off and, if it didn’t want that to happen, take precautions to guard against that eventuality. By contrast to the plans that are made by AIs in Hollywood movies – which plans are actually thought up by humans and designed to maximize plot satisfaction – the plans created by a real superintelligence would very likely work. If the other Great Apes start to feel that we are encroaching on their territory, couldn’t they just bash our skulls in? Would they stand a much better chance if every human had a little off-switch at the back of our necks?

So should we stop building robots?

The concern that I focus on in the book has nothing in particular to do with robotics. It is not in the body that the danger lies, but in the mind that a future machine intelligence may possess. Where there is a superintelligent will, there can most likely be found a way. For instance, a superintelligence that initially lacks means to directly affect the physical world may be able to manipulate humans to do its bidding or to give it access to the means to develop its own technological infrastructure.

One might then ask whether we should stop building AIs? That question seems to me somewhat idle, since there is no prospect of us actually doing so. There are strong incentives to make incremental advances along many different pathways that eventually may contribute to machine intelligence – software engineering, neuroscience, statistics, hardware design, machine learning, and robotics – and these fields involve large numbers of people from all over the world.

To what extent have we already yielded control over our fate to technology?

The human species has never been in control of its destiny. Different groups of humans have been going about their business, pursuing their various and sometimes conflicting goals. The resulting trajectory of global technological and economic development has come about without much global coordination and long-term planning, and almost entirely without any concern for the ultimate fate of humanity.

Picture a school bus accelerating down a mountain road, full of quibbling and carousing kids. That is humanity. But if we look towards the front, we see that the driver’s seat is empty.

Featured image credit: Humanrobo. Photo by The Global Panorama, CC BY 2.0 via Flickr

The post Nick Bostrom on artificial intelligence appeared first on OUPblog.

        

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Interview with Nicola L. Robinson, illustrator turned author and the trials, tribulations and triumphs of a change of hats!

Hi Nicola

First off, HEARTY CONGRATULATIONS on the release of “The Monster Machine” with Pavilion Books – a sort of mad inventor meets Granny’s knitted nightmares joy of a book!

Have you always had a strong visual sense of story?

Yes I have, I’ve always loved drawing (like all illustrators I should imagine!) but particularly loved drawing pictures with something happening in them, be it a big thing chasing a small thing or any kind of interaction between my creations. As a child I’d name the characters and make up stories around them..

I grew up and went to university and did a degree in Fine Art, which was fantastic, but I realised my work was more illustration and less ‘Fine Art’. I have always looked for the story in the picture, and love adding narrative details to things, be it a little mouse hiding behind a teapot or something more sinister watching through a crack in the curtain... I am a visual thinker, but at this point I didn’t consider writing the actual words down to go with the illustrations.

What were your favourite storybook images as a child and how did they influence you as an illustrator and the style you adopted as ‘you’?

I didn’t have many traditional picture books, I did however pour over photos of crocodiles and snakes from a really old book on ‘The Animal Kingdom’. One of my favourite storybooks was a book of Greek Myths which had a lot of colour plates inside of the various mythological beasts and some nice black and white ink illustrations, fairly traditional in style. My favourites were always the ones I could imagine myself being in, something with some perspective, or one where you can see inside an open door or window. I also loved the Hobbit by JRR Tolkien, with Smaug the dragon. I have drawn many dragons since then and continue to do so today.

I have always loved the traditional fairytale illustrators like Arthur Rackham and others like Aubrey Beardsley and more recently Edward Gorey. Black and white ink illustrations in particular have always appealed to me, as has the sinister so I expect I have absorbed a little of their influence into my current working style. I certainly hope so!

Do you have a favourite among your previous illustrative projects? Would you tell us something of the creative process involved in bringing the images to light?

 My favourites change all the time, but I am still very attached to a detailed illustration from last year titled ‘Downtown’

It started off like so many drawings as a few scribbles on the page, I could see a cityscape of sorts in my head… I often write lists of words and ideas to include in a piece, little descriptions like ‘Dark alleys’ and ‘Iron Bridges’ just as little word pictures, alongside thumbnails which I find very helpful.

1 The Rough idea is drawn

From here it gets its structure and is drawn out. If I’m going to be working in colour I usually stretch some paper at this point before transferring the idea to it.

I work up the details in pencil…

6 Comments on Nicola’s Monsters! An interview with illustrator turned author, Nicola L. Robinson, last added: 5/30/2012

With a hundred plus vendors set up on more than 20 acres of land, the Aberfoyle Antique Market can overwhelm even the most experienced antique enthusiasts. A few weeks ago I spent the day wandering up and down the aisles of the open-air market, enjoying the blue sky above and the autumn sun. Every nook [...]

The Village Garage by G. Brian Karas

Follow the activities of the workers from the village garage as the seasons change.  In spring, the workers are cleaning up sticks, creating mulch, and washing the trucks.  In summer, they are fixing the roads, picking up garbage, and mowing the grass.  They even deal with the effects of a summer thunderstorm that takes out a bridge.  In autumn, they suck up the leaves.  In winter, work is slower until the snow starts and then they wish for spring to come again.  The book mixes the interesting tools and machines the workers use into the story.  Readers will learn what the machines are called and what they do.  This is a rare book that reads beautifully but also has lots of machinery for children to learn about.  Too often they read like lists of tools rather than stories.

Karas perfectly captures small town life along with garage work.  The use of the seasons to frame the story works particularly well with the seasonal nature of their work.  Karas’ art is friendly and also has that same small town feel and a genuine enjoyment for the machines themselves.  Karas incorporates women and people of color throughout his illustrations.  The book offers great sound effects to read aloud, which children will happily help with.  Chains rattle, the leaf truck sucks noisily.  He also weaves a nice sense of humor throughout the book with small touches. 

Ideal for machine story times, this book will also be a great addition to seasonal stories.  Appropriate for ages 3-5.

Reviewed from book received from Henry Holt.

Also reviewed by 100 Scope Notes.

Dewey: 612.8








Machines Go to Work by William Low, Henry Holt, 2009

William Low brought a long-gone train station to life in his book Old Penn Station. Here, Low brings us working vehicles such as fire trucks, helicopters, backhoes, container ships, cement trucks and even railroad crossing signs that vibrate with color and strength.

This is not Little Toot, the anthropomorphic tugboat nor Thomas the Tank Engine. Low's brush strokes do suggest a presence and power as his machines rumble across the two page spreads. The reader can see the helicopter's rotors whirl and the front tire of a cement mixer deflating. Illustrations open with full page flaps to extend the reach of a backhoe or the length of the fire truck's ladder.

The narrative is set up to suggest a problem for each machine which is then gently resolved as the flap unfolds. A fire truck roars past cherry trees in full bloom, not because of a fire but to rescue a cat. A news helicopter races to the scene of a traffic tie-up but happily, an accident is not the cause of the problem.

The last two pages unfold to present a 4 page an aerial view of the city in eye-popping color. All the machines are visible from on high as they go about their work. It is fun to try and find them all. At the end of the book, small paintings of the machines are labeled along with some brief facts. The parts of the Cement Mixer are labeled: the water tank, the cement chute, the engine exhaust. The cement drum is "like a big mixing bowl. Just add sand, gravel, portalnd cement, water and mix."

Low paints with realistic and technical accuracy. People are there, operating these machines and giving the reader a sense of scale as well as the machine's purpose.

This is a "must-have" for school libraries and for young truck-boat-train-heavy machine enthusiasts.

Trained in traditional oil technique, Low used Adobe Photoshop and Corel Painter to create this book. He demonstrates how he works in this series of videos.

Fascinating.




Part 2

Part 3

Nonfiction Monday round up is at MotherReader today.

Often people driving large car often get attacked for their apparent lack of understanding environmental issues, but most of these drivers are shy people, who likes to get a little distance to the rest of us. So the next time you meet any one of these drivers give them a hug and tell them that you do understand, insecurity is nothing to be ashamed of.

Wouldn't have happened without Douglas Adams I guess

As of late I've not been able to fill my quota of Budgies (i.e budgies with power toys). To make amens I give you this perky little fellow complete with the power toy of choice for budgies.

Made some Illustrations for a small collection of short stories by William Shunn it will be available from Electric Velocipede

Made on one of this summers many rainy days

More practical gadgets, this time clocks. and remember all our products are delivered without any documentation. Thinking keeps the brain young!

Device for capturing photographic images with the use of electronics

Afraid of dogs, then use this handy device, works fine for cats and middle size rodents as well

Tomorrow is a National holiday in Sweden, so I'll be running around and celebrating as a mad man. Luckily I already prepared tomorrows post so be prepared for a runaway house.

Made while "watching" a rather dull film yesterday, as time goes on I tend not to see the ends of film anymore. Is there any point of seeing half of every film?

Do you need charging? just give us a call

Now it's decided we're moving from Gothenburg (my hometown since 1989, my wife since 1991) and moving to Sigtuna outside of Stockholm. The actual moving will happen in August, so fellow Gothenburgers you still have time to catch me. Managed to break away from the moleskine for a change today, and use some old akvarell paper I bought in Florence once sometime during the last century.

The Food precessor

The microwave oven

The coffee maker

The Baking machine

We're selling our house and moving, been cleaning all day, my head spins I'll probably be dreaming nighmares of dust tonight.

In yesterdays post, as Felicity was kind enough to comment I neglected to draw high heels on the gentlemen in the dishwasher seminar. The robot today is equipped with more sensible foot wear to make amens for yesterdays blunder. I'm off to the Capital tomorrow, we have to decide whether or not to move as it looks, we may live in another city soon.

You can read my book review of THE INVENTION OF HUGO CABRET by Brian Selznick in this Friday's Variety. I'll link to it here when it comes out.

The book is fabulous. It tells the story a boy--orphaned, working as a timekeeper in a train station, and stealing parts to fix an automaton that will write. The boy, Hugo Cabret, believes the writing automaton has an important message for him, possibly from Hugo's father.

The story captures the mystery and intensity of a boy alone in a larger world. It also reminds us of a time when mechanical marvels were thought to be magical (that's almost the way I view how my computer works now!).

So here's a look at some old time mechanical marvels.

An 18th century French writing doll.



And a look inside at how it works.




And a 19th century doll writing kanji.



And if you want to understand how it works, here's a little article explaining the mechanical principles. Automatons

You can see a small sample of the variety of automatons at this gallery . And see a picture of yet another writing automaton here: Renee's

And if you want to read more, or make your own, here's a place to get more books and tools. AmazonHasEverything

But if you don't want to spend money, you can get a quick glimpse of the history of automatons, i.e. robotics (and learn where that term came from if you don't already know), here: HistoryofRobotics

The fascination with machines is as old as humankind. And a good story about a kid who is fascinated with a machine--well, that's THE INVENTION OF HUGO CABRET.